Is the bottom falling out of the Penny market ?

[1949threepence]

27 minutes ago, PWA 1967 said:

I think its all the same as more turn up and all relative to how many collectors will pay for one.

A F169 was in LCA in Dec for £700.....It didnt sell but problem free ,this i do know as i bought it for less a couple of weeks after and now in a cgs slab.

One sold a couple of weeks ago in a job lot at DNW for £550 ,again i opened the bidding at £20  and then let others get involved as it wasnt worth anywhere near £550 to me

One sold on Tuesday in the Baldwin sale for £420.

Dealers are obviously selling coins all the time and by speaking to them you get a better feel for the market and prices 

Its all the same if more keep turning up ( which they will ) the price will come down or become stagnant if people ask to much

As far as the numbers there are definately more than 20 and its at this point IMO most collectors will of either bought one ,will look for one cheap on ebay etc or dont want one.

The biggest problem IMO is the lack of new collectors and this if it happens is what may bring the prices back up.

 

......and your evidence to support this assertion is what, precisely?

Maybe more will be found to bring the numbers up, but at present it appears there are fewer. Not that many have turned up in getting on for 10 years. 

In some cases the numbers visiby extant remain very low, such as the F76 and F90. In others they increase. The F169 is in that first category. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by 1949threepence

[PWA 1967]

My evidence is down to spending hours looking and asking dealers questions 🙂i dont doubt they are scarce or as a collector i would not of paid good money for one.

On the 1st of March 2016 someone who had done there homework started a thread on this forum ,he then went on to sell it at LCA.

1909 2 + E penny now there are 16 ..........Was the title of the thread and i can remember at the time phoning people up and asking dealers about them ,which i have continued to do for the last three years.Some people have one and are happy to just put in there collection and dont come on here to tell everyone and have not all been sold at auction.

Yes some are still scarce including the F169 , although the number of collectors prepared to pay for one may be less than we think.

Numerous others including 1863 open , 1862 Half penny date , 1860 N/Z etc were all considered rare but have now all reached numbers were IMO the prices have started to drop.

I have a collection and dont want them to go down  but as more are found they are unlikely to go up.....Unless new collectors want them.

 

 

[1949threepence]

57 minutes ago, PWA 1967 said:

My evidence is down to spending hours looking and asking dealers questions 🙂i dont doubt they are scarce or as a collector i would not of paid good money for one.

On the 1st of March 2016 someone who had done there homework started a thread on this forum ,he then went on to sell it at LCA.

1909 2 + E penny now there are 16 ..........Was the title of the thread and i can remember at the time phoning people up and asking dealers about them ,which i have continued to do for the last three years.Some people have one and are happy to just put in there collection and dont come on here to tell everyone and have not all been sold at auction.

Yes some are still scarce including the F169 , although the number of collectors prepared to pay for one may be less than we think.

Numerous others including 1863 open , 1862 Half penny date , 1860 N/Z etc were all considered rare but have now all reached numbers were IMO the prices have started to drop.

I have a collection and dont want them to go down  but as more are found they are unlikely to go up.....Unless new collectors want them.

 

 

That is conjecture rather than conclusive evidence - OK to a greater or lesser extent it's all conjecture to be fair, but I don't think you can definitely say there are more than 20 as a statement of fact, especially as the thread starter you quoted said he read on a PDF somewhere that there were fifteen 169s. That's the cyber equivalent of some bloke down the pub told me. Although good for him finding one for 20p.  

The hammer prices I listed earlier, are a fact. To me that's an indication of true rarity. 

[jelida]

Dave Craddock had an F169 on his stall at the Midland a couple of months ago at a grand. It was sold I think in the course of the morning, at least it was no longer in his case when I went back for a second look. I had passed it as too pricey initially but somebody seems to have bitten. However I did win the Baldwins one at £420 ie £540 ish with juice, fairly happy with that though the slab needs a polish. One I always look for on the bay.

I also need an F164A but was not tempted by the Baldwins offerings. A better one will pop up eventually.

Jerry

[1949threepence]

Just on the subject of the 169. Given what the ordinary ones go for, imagine what a high grade example would fetch.

[PWA 1967]

I am more than happy for you to do your own research and should you decide to do so ,you may well find a few more that you were not aware of.

[secret santa]

18 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

imagine what a high grade example would fetch

Offers ?

[1949threepence]

29 minutes ago, secret santa said:

Offers ?

..........Would be very high......... 

[Diaconis]

An interesting snippet in CoinWeekly and though directed more toward the hammered penny market, nonetheless interesting and still pennies. Good to know the British coin market is attracting foreign buyers. 

[1949threepence]

36 minutes ago, Diaconis said:

An interesting snippet in CoinWeekly and though directed more toward the hammered penny market, nonetheless interesting and still pennies. Good to know the British coin market is attracting foreign buyers. 

Absolutely. You only have to listen to an online auction to realise that auctions have expanded from room only, to buyers from all over the world in a relatively short time. 

[damian1986]

 

1 hour ago, Diaconis said:

An interesting snippet in CoinWeekly and though directed more toward the hammered penny market, nonetheless interesting and still pennies. Good to know the British coin market is attracting foreign buyers. 

So it's good that the coinage is reaching a wider audience, or it's good that people with plenty of cash to spend are keeping prices propped up?

Sounds like the buy-in is "the market is booming", rather than "look at what you can get out of the hobby"; this isn't conducive to bringing in new collectors of worse-than-fine pennies at 2 grand a pop!! 😄

[blakeyboy]

Curiously parallel to my business, all this.

 

I restore old studio recording consoles, all one make, British, from 1968 to 1980.

I've collected all the parts and console bits I can find for 25+ years.

The prices over the last five years have trebled, as people that can't find places to invest their cash

join in the feeding frenzy, looking for investments.  The good stuff rose first, followed a couple of years later,

the average stuff. A nice console now can be £250K......

I'm happy, since my stock of consoles and console parts will give me a pension.

However, for example, consider my stock of old audio transformers.

What used to be £10 is now £250. Fantastic, you would assume, BUT I now control the world price.

If I wanted to sell 300 to buy a really nice car, I would get £100 each, or less,

since the _perceived_ rarity is what is keeping up the price.

So- what if collectors of good rare pennies sensed that interest rates were going to rise,

Swiss banks no longer charge negative interest rates......they'll sell, and all the rare stuff that has never been counted,

like F169's all appear at once, and people find that there are actually 50 of them, and the new 30 are all EF+......

 

Either, collectors buy them up at a good price and flood the market with their old average ones, lowering the price of examples in Fine,

or, the flood of EF examples lowers the price of the EF ones.........

 

Maybe.

[Peckris 2]

Penny falling out of the bottom market...

[blakeyboy]

Ahhh.....    Penny Irving.......

[1949threepence]

22 minutes ago, Peckris 2 said:

Penny falling out of the bottom market...

Didn't she come up before?

 

[blakeyboy]

10 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

Didn't she come up before?

 

Never enough...

 

 

[Peckris 2]

On 13 June 2019 at 11:10 PM, 1949threepence said:

Didn't she come up before?

 

You're quite right - this is an old topic! Memories of the 1970s are more vivid than those of last year...  

[VickySilver]

Yikes, bit of a distraction there & here's to her bottom staying UP!

I think supporting the original topic that it was interesting that the 1952 penny went only for 80k. I really thought that would be a 100k coin. What say you all?

[1949threepence]

53 minutes ago, VickySilver said:

Yikes, bit of a distraction there & here's to her bottom staying UP!

I think supporting the original topic that it was interesting that the 1952 penny went only for 80k. I really thought that would be a 100k coin. What say you all?

It's lot No 2082, but it's got a dash against it in the realised prices?

[secret santa]

21 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

1 hour ago, VickySilver said:

I think supporting the original topic that it was interesting that the 1952 penny went only for 80k. I really thought that would be a 100k coin. What say you all?

It's lot No 2082, but it's got a dash against it in the realised prices?

Yes, it wasn't sold. I was listening and the auctioneer tried hard to get 80K for it but no-one would bid. He then passed it but said "see me later" so there may have been someone there wanting to negotiate on commission or something like that ?

[Paddy]

49 minutes ago, secret santa said:

Yes, it wasn't sold. I was listening and the auctioneer tried hard to get 80K for it but no-one would bid. He then passed it but said "see me later" so there may have been someone there wanting to negotiate on commission or something like that ?

I believe it is illegal for an auctioneer to negotiate a reduced buyer's commission as that creates an uneven playing field. Maybe they were prepared to discuss a reduced reserve with the vendor? 

Seller's commission rates are negotiable - worth bearing in mind if you are selling good items that the auctioneer would be glad to have in their catalogue.

 

[Peckris 2]

3 hours ago, Paddy said:

I believe it is illegal for an auctioneer to negotiate a reduced buyer's commission as that creates an uneven playing field. Maybe they were prepared to discuss a reduced reserve with the vendor? 

Seller's commission rates are negotiable - worth bearing in mind if you are selling good items that the auctioneer would be glad to have in their catalogue.

More likely is that it didn't meet reserve - maybe someone had expressed an interest if it didn't?

[oldcopper]

12 hours ago, Peckris 2 said:

More likely is that it didn't meet reserve - maybe someone had expressed an interest if it didn't?

I was talking about this coin when I commented elsewhere and as I observed, the Internet live bid site said "current bid 80K" and "bid £85K." Which must have confused everyone as no-one had bid 80K. So I suppose someone would have picked it up for 80K afterwards.

The coin looks lacquered to me but this hasn't been mentioned. Still, difficult to get a better one!

[Colin88]

There has been a softening in the Penny market for some years now...(I exclude the super rareities ..1808 , 1933, 1937 (Ed 8),  1952, 1954) which would probably still attract 'investors' but yer normal pennies have not done that well in recent years ...look at the prices of high grade 1869's 1871's, 1865/3's for example...half what they were at their height and nowhere near where they were even 5 years ago.

Unfortunately and this is a personal view that Pennies are going the same way as stamps (perhaps not quite as bad but in the same vein). Most collectors of Pennies and Stamps are in the older age bracket, when they/we die there is no young blood to replace them ....who under 50 - 60 collect stamps or Pennies.. and where are the young collectors?.

Go to the York Coin and Stamp fair for example and have a look around the Stamp floor and you will see all the evidence you need.

Are any of our children remotely interested in stamps or pennies or coins come to that.

Having said that as much as we poo poo these ridiculous coins coming out every day from that well known marketing company , the Royal Mint, these Jemmima Puddleduck, Thomas the Tank Engine and Andy Pandy coins or whatever, are encouraging people to look and collect again and hopefully some will start collecting more historical coins.....just like tea is a gateway drug to biscuits ,  Jemmima Puddleduck could be a gateway to Pennies !

My view for what its worth.

       

      

[secret santa]

2 hours ago, Colin88 said:

My view for what its worth.

This reflects my own view - I think I have missed out on the optimum time to dispose of my collection so the question is whether to wait and hope for an upturn or cut my losses and sell before things get worse?