How much will the coin market be affected by COVID-19?

[Sword]

Just a thought. No coin fairs, no room bidding in auctions, less lots being assigned etc. Will there simply be much less new stock on the market in the next 6 months?

[terrysoldpennies]

It must effect it , in my area all the Post offices have closed so no more buying and selling for the foreseeable  future ??

[VickySilver]

I have wondered at many of the auction prices -  almost as though reality has not yet hit. I think the story is yet to be told. 

[Rob]

My post office is open as is Hermes drop-off, so shipping is still an option. Royal Mail delivers, or at least did so this morning and Hermes dropped something off yesterday. i.e. it is possible to function.

I'm spending the time not going to fairs by listing some of the many things on the website that I haven't got around to doing so far, putting some things on eBay and sorting out the numerous storage boxes of coins in the pending pile. I think most dealers have a lot of things not listed on their sites, so stock is not necessarily going to be a problem.

Prices must take a hit somewhere assuming some people will have lost their disposable income, but at the top end, money is not a problem with only a bunker mentality inhibiting spending. The world unlikely to run out of people on ebay buying things for a quid, so this offers probably the strongest market for selling into. Stock markets coming off 20% will have made a few people switch into alternatives. Unusually, gold has not spiked to any degree, so either people are sitting on loads of cash, or they are buying alternative assets. Property isn't an option as viewing/surveying etc is problematic, so it boils down to assets you can buy over the internet. Good for coins, or at least relative to some of the alternatives.

[pokal02]

I can't see it being  a total meltdown.  Some auctions (eg Morton & Eden) have cancelled but most are going ahead on-line, where most people are now anyway compared to 'in the room' (and there's less chance bidders will be unavailable when their desired lots come up!)  The few dealers I look at online still seem to be adding stock.  Post offices OK round here, though not sure if Special Delivery still operates - even if not, I'm quite happy for dealers/auctioneers I trust to hold on to anything I buy until they can safely post it).

As Rob says above, the lower end may take the bigger (proportional) hit due to 'budget' collectors having less income/other priorities now.  

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by pokal02
update

[Rob]

Special Delivery and Signed For items are now being pushed through the door to avoid close contact (signing their machine). I'm not sure how this will affect various parties' liability. I guess the message is, if you are happy the postman will deliver, OK, but if you are worried about them going missing, ask the seller to delay posting. I had my Lockdales lots arrive today, no problem.

[1949threepence]

I don't think it will take a massive hit since most coins are now bought and sold over the internet anyway. Moreover, most Post Offices remain open.

In fact, uncertainty of stock markets, pound, dollar, euro etc, might even lead to an increase in activity and prices, especially at the higher (serious) end, as the lockdown forces people to retreat to their personal hobbies, and will free up more time to tune in to online auctions.

       

[JLS]

I reckon the longer this goes on for, people who are still earning their full salary will purchase more out of sheer boredom. Living in London, my spending on non-necessities has almost gone to zero which has freed up more money for coin purchases if I was so minded, although I haven't seen anything I really want for my collection recently in auction. 

[jaggy]

I have bought two coins since the lockdowns started. One has been delivered and one is en-route.

I think this could push the price of higher end coins up as they are seen as an alternative investment while the markets tank. For the rest, unless incomes take a serious hit then I don't see that there will be much difference in prices.

[Ukstu]

I had the same conversation with my son. I've not bought anything in weeks myself. He was asking what i figured the market would do. I said i thought it would be okay as coins usually do not suffer from fluctuations in gold or silver prices. He said what if the market is flooded with coins from the families of ppl who die. Morbid i guess but he is 16 yrs old. It was a valid point. One i couldn't answer myself as I've never known a situation like this. 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Ukstu

[VickySilver]

I think the previously mentioned 1945 3d may be an example of a top end rarity suffering from the current climate/disease state. I will also state that it definitely has affected my purchasing of generally nicer if not top coins. I used to not really think about it and go ahead and buy many coins, but that it is certainly not the case now.  A few others have mentioned similar to me.

This whole thing may hit us in waves and not a general surge, possibly with hard to predict affects. I can't see but how gold at least (in bullion and coin form) will do alright. This whole two trillion dollar stimulus package  in the USA - whatever that really means - will be inflationary, possibly "stagflationary" times revisited . That will possibly serve to further bifurcate the market and somewhat bury coins on the lower end of the scale.

[oldcopper]

Yes, I hope vendors are taking reasonable precautions before sending coins out, like giving them a quick spray with bleach.

[JLS]

50 minutes ago, oldcopper said:

Yes, I hope vendors are taking reasonable precautions before sending coins out, like giving them a quick spray with bleach.

I hope this is a joke ! Bleach reacts with base metal...

Coronavirus isn't going to last on copper or silver coins more than a few hours, maybe a day or two for cupronickel. Given how slow the post is right now, the risk is basically nil. 

[1949threepence]

9 hours ago, Ukstu said:

I had the same conversation with my son. I've not bought anything in weeks myself. He was asking what i figured the market would do. I said i thought it would be okay as coins usually do not suffer from fluctuations in gold or silver prices. He said what if the market is flooded with coins from the families of ppl who die. Morbid i guess but he is 16 yrs old. It was a valid point. One i couldn't answer myself as I've never known a situation like this. 

There could be a few, obviously, but the market won't be flooded with them. Let's not forget stats here - even if say 5 million catch the virus, that's still only 7% of the population, and the vast majority of them will soon recover. 

More likely some collections/part collections will be sold because their owners are out of a job due to the extremely adverse economic situation created by the virus, and need money urgently.    

[1949threepence]

1 hour ago, oldcopper said:

Yes, I hope vendors are taking reasonable precautions before sending coins out, like giving them a quick spray with bleach.

I presume that's said tongue in cheek, given the damage that bleach could cause a coin.

As JLS says, the risk is negligible. In any case, all the buyer has to do on receipt, is open the package, inspect the coin, put it way, dispose of the packaging, and then wash their hands thoroughly.   

[oldcopper]

25 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

I presume that's said tongue in cheek, given the damage that bleach could cause a coin.

As JLS says, the risk is negligible. In any case, all the buyer has to do on receipt, is open the package, inspect the coin, put it way, dispose of the packaging, and then wash their hands thoroughly.   

Yes, it was a joke. Weak I know! Perhaps I should have said, as there might be an ebay seller out there getting out the domestos as we speak......

[Rob]

2 hours ago, oldcopper said:

Yes, it was a joke. Weak I know! Perhaps I should have said, as there might be an ebay seller out there getting out the domestos as we speak......

There's no shortage of ebay sellers cleaning their coins prior to infection

 

[Varietalis]

On 4/3/2020 at 2:58 PM, pokal02 said:

I can't see it being  a total meltdown.  Some auctions (eg Morton & Eden) have cancelled but most are going ahead on-line, where most people are now anyway compared to 'in the room' (and there's less chance bidders will be unavailable when their desired lots come up!)  The few dealers I look at online still seem to be adding stock.  Post offices OK round here, though not sure if Special Delivery still operates - even if not, I'm quite happy for dealers/auctioneers I trust to hold on to anything I buy until they can safely post it).

As Rob says above, the lower end may take the bigger (proportional) hit due to 'budget' collectors having less income/other priorities now.  

 

I wonder what London Coins will do for their June auction as they currently don't offer the option of live internet bidding, or even the option of bidding directly via a 'my account' feature on their website.  As it currently stands, assuming the June auction goes ahead with no room bidders, they will have to rely 100% on emailed commission bids.  

[Diaconis]

19 hours ago, jaggy said:

I have bought two coins since the lockdowns started.

Is that a subsidiary of Lockdales?

[Sword]

11 minutes ago, Varietalis said:

I wonder what London Coins will do for their June auction as they currently don't offer the option of live internet bidding, or even the option of bidding directly via a 'my account' feature on their website.  As it currently stands, assuming the June auction goes ahead with no room bidders, they will have to rely 100% on emailed commission bids.  

London Coins crossed my mine too. I guess they might partner with Saleroom for online bidding. 

 

[jaggy]

1 hour ago, Sword said:

London Coins crossed my mine too. I guess they might partner with Saleroom for online bidding. 

 

It might force them into the 21st century.

[Iannich48]

43 minutes ago, jaggy said:

It might force them into the 21st century.

Alternatively, if they do keep to just commision bids, there could be a lot of bargains for the buyers. But not good for the sellers. I think that jaggy might have hit the nail on the head.

[Varietalis]

17 hours ago, Iannich48 said:

Alternatively, if they do keep to just commision bids, there could be a lot of bargains for the buyers. But not good for the sellers. I think that jaggy might have hit the nail on the head.

I've bought coins via live bidding that I didn't even know I wanted when I woke up that morning.  It's these impulse bids that LC are surely missing out on.  

[blakeyboy]

9 hours ago, Varietalis said:

I've bought coins via live bidding that I didn't even know I wanted when I woke up that morning.  It's these impulse bids that LC are surely missing out on.  

I've bought coins via live bidding and only realised when I woke up the next morning...

[Iannich48]

12 hours ago, blakeyboy said:

I've bought coins via live bidding and only realised when I woke up the next morning...

Sleep bidding, i guess that is a new saying💤