Question for you knowledgable types

[azda]

Bought an 1871 Sydney Sov and was looking through Spinks Prices on these. Last years price for EF 400 pounds, this years 1100, why such the huge increase. I know everyone says take spinks with a pinch of salt, but thats a massive increase in price, almost triple. Any reason as to why?

Spink Number 3858A: Is this long or short tail?

Edited October 20, 2010 by azda

[RLC35]

Part of the increase is because of the price of Gold. It is really high right now.

[azda]

Part of the increase is because of the price of Gold. It is really high right now.

Hmmm not sure about that Bob, the gold hikes came this year, the Spink book was printed in 2009 for the 2010 edition, plus it weighs at around 7.9ish gram, so wouldn't merit near triple value from 2009 book, is it long or short tail?

Edited October 20, 2010 by azda

[RLC35]

Part of the increase is because of the price of Gold. It is really high right now.

Hmmm not sure about that Bob, the gold hikes came this year, the Spink book was printed in 2009 for the 2010 edition, plus it weighs at around 7.9ish gram, so wouldn't merit near triple value from 2009 book, is it long or short tail?

Gold prices jumped 100% from 2006 to 2008 ($450 to $900), and went up another 50% from 2008 to 2010 ($900 to $1350). That price rise wasn't all that was responsible, but it was a big part! See attached chart.

[azda]

Part of the increase is because of the price of Gold. It is really high right now.

Hmmm not sure about that Bob, the gold hikes came this year, the Spink book was printed in 2009 for the 2010 edition, plus it weighs at around 7.9ish gram, so wouldn't merit near triple value from 2009 book, is it long or short tail?

Gold prices jumped 100% from 2006 to 2008 ($450 to $900), and went up another 50% from 2008 to 2010 ($900 to $1350). That price rise wasn't all that was responsible, but it was a big part! See attached chart.

Wouldn't that then make other Sovs and halfs sovs rise then also Bob, there would be huge increases in other sovs if this were the case. It will be interesting to see what the Spink 2011 gold sections are like this time around

Edited October 21, 2010 by azda

[VickySilver]

I am certainly no expert in Aussie gold, but it looks to be long tail. This coin's value appears even at 400 pounds to be numismatically based rather than bullion based so I would not expect it to move proportionate to gold's gains (or heaven forbid, losses). They are noticing this in the American market for slabbed MS62-64 commoner double eagles I read - numismatic value does not gain with gold and is being "eaten up" by the gold rise.

My infantile understanding is that the coin market in Aussieland is supported by the government letting people to put coins into retirement plans and ???tax protection. Perhaps another poster can improve our knowledge on this...

[azda]

400 pounds was spinks 2009 book price vicky in ef, 2010 for the same is 1100. I think in Europe u can buh a certain amount of Gold tax free

[Peter]

I bought sovs, half sovs, guineas and half guineas about 5 years ago.....I wish I had bought more.I paid £60,£40,£112 & £50.....not a bad return.

Apart from bullion I can see copper (pre 1860) rising rapidly...not that I would sell

[Peckris]

I bought sovs, half sovs, guineas and half guineas about 5 years ago.....I wish I had bought more.I paid £60,£40,£112 & £50.....not a bad return.

Apart from bullion I can see copper (pre 1860) rising rapidly...not that I would sell

Ah, but the differential between "bullion value" and "coin value" will always be huge with respect to copper. Only VG (or even worse) will be worth hoarding for metal value.

[£400 for a Penny ?]

I bought sovs, half sovs, guineas and half guineas about 5 years ago.....I wish I had bought more.I paid £60,£40,£112 & £50.....not a bad return.

Apart from bullion I can see copper (pre 1860) rising rapidly...not that I would sell

With the mess we've made of the economy, it's hard to see any bullion price returning to those levels in our lifetime.

On the subject of the economic mess, I was reading that a million $ packed really tightly into a brick of $100 notes would rise approximately four and a half inches off the table in front of you.

Want to guess how high the repayment we and our children have to make would rise off the table in front of you ?

I'll tell you.

71 miles.

[Peter]

I bought sovs, half sovs, guineas and half guineas about 5 years ago.....I wish I had bought more.I paid £60,£40,£112 & £50.....not a bad return.

Apart from bullion I can see copper (pre 1860) rising rapidly...not that I would sell

With the mess we've made of the economy, it's hard to see any bullion price returning to those levels in our lifetime.

My daily commute was 180 miles so bugger the poor and have nots

On the subject of the economic mess, I was reading that a million $ packed really tightly into a brick of $100 notes would rise approximately four and a half inches off the table in front of you.

Want to guess how high the repayment we and our children have to make would rise off the table in front of you ?

I'll tell you.

71 miles.

[declanwmagee]

I bought sovs, half sovs, guineas and half guineas about 5 years ago.....I wish I had bought more.I paid £60,£40,£112 & £50.....not a bad return.

Apart from bullion I can see copper (pre 1860) rising rapidly...not that I would sell

With the mess we've made of the economy, it's hard to see any bullion price returning to those levels in our lifetime.

On the subject of the economic mess, I was reading that a million $ packed really tightly into a brick of $100 notes would rise approximately four and a half inches off the table in front of you.

Want to guess how high the repayment we and our children have to make would rise off the table in front of you ?

I'll tell you.

71 miles.

Bearing in mind that that money doesn't exist, anywhere, and never has, we and our children are going to have a bit of a job on our hands.

I know, let's print some more, worked for Weimar...invest in potatoes I say.

[Peckris]

With the mess we've made of the economy, it's hard to see any bullion price returning to those levels in our lifetime.

I think you'll find it was bankers (in both senses). Aided and abetted by governments who didn't regulate them.

[Gary D]

With the mess we've made of the economy, it's hard to see any bullion price returning to those levels in our lifetime.

I think you'll find it was bankers (in both senses). Aided and abetted by governments who didn't regulate them.

I think you will find that the bubble will have burst with or without the bankers. The problems we are in at this moment is largely due to government over borrowing. The bankers just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, scapegoat anyone, very convenient.

Gary

[Peter]

credit was available to people who couldn't afford it.

I blame the media and dot com.

If you can't pay cash don't buy it.

[Rob]

credit was available to people who couldn't afford it.

I blame the media and dot com.

If you can't pay cash don't buy it.

Quite agree. Ever since the introduction of credit cards in the 1970s, people have been deferring payment as there is no requirement to pay up front for the luxuries you covet but are unwilling to work or wait for. It's no coincidence that Germany doesn't have a credit problem and the populace are reluctant to embrace credit cards. As you say, if you can't pay cash, don't buy it - and they don't. As a rule they don't fritter away their hard earned savings on depreciating liabilities like the latest fashionable item that has to be bought because it is available, yet discarded tomorrow because it's old hat. They tend to buy quality and insist on it lasting for years or even decades. I'm glad my wife is German - or maybe I was born in the wrong country.

[Peter]

Herr Rob

My wife is Northern Irish and wasn't brought up on credit...However £60 dissapeared from my wallet overnight and my daughters and wife just laugh...

Even the dog gets steak.

I must admit to a bit of pampering and me and the cat know our place....in the study and out of the way of eastenders,waterloo road & X factor and also providing a taxi service FOC.

However I still indulge in a few discs.

[Rob]

I am certainly no expert in Aussie gold, but it looks to be long tail. This coin's value appears even at 400 pounds to be numismatically based rather than bullion based so I would not expect it to move proportionate to gold's gains (or heaven forbid, losses). They are noticing this in the American market for slabbed MS62-64 commoner double eagles I read - numismatic value does not gain with gold and is being "eaten up" by the gold rise.

My infantile understanding is that the coin market in Aussieland is supported by the government letting people to put coins into retirement plans and ???tax protection. Perhaps another poster can improve our knowledge on this...

The price of Aussie gold is going through the roof because of Aussie demand. Almost any piece in UNC will be snapped up for a 4 figure sum. Even slightly impaired top grade pieces are mopped up easily. A genuine UNC will easily surpass Spink prices which are playing catchup. My Melbourne Victoria sovereign cost more than Spink book, and in the case of the Sydney & Perth coins I have bid on recently I didn't even come close, despite bids over book. All that is without premiums.

Edited October 23, 2010 by Rob

[azda]

credit was available to people who couldn't afford it.

I blame the media and dot com.

If you can't pay cash don't buy it.

Quite agree. Ever since the introduction of credit cards in the 1970s, people have been deferring payment as there is no requirement to pay up front for the luxuries you covet but are unwilling to work or wait for. It's no coincidence that Germany doesn't have a credit problem and the populace are reluctant to embrace credit cards. As you say, if you can't pay cash, don't buy it - and they don't. As a rule they don't fritter away their hard earned savings on depreciating liabilities like the latest fashionable item that has to be bought because it is available, yet discarded tomorrow because it's old hat. They tend to buy quality and insist on it lasting for years or even decades. I'm glad my wife is German - or maybe I was born in the wrong country.

Just to add to Robs Germany and Credit Card reply. Here in Munich at least, hardly any stores take CCs, even the big electrical stores etc don't, it has to be an EC card or nothing.

[VickySilver]

I think I was speculating on a deeper answer as to why the Australian demand - is there not some sort of tax advantage? I seem to recall something of that sort...

[azda]

I think I was speculating on a deeper answer as to why the Australian demand - is there not some sort of tax advantage? I seem to recall something of that sort...

I'm still waiting to see why the Sov itself has tripled in Value since last year, not entirely with the theory of the gold prices because that would mean ALL Sovs would have risen in such degree, but they have'nt all tripled in value, so still awaiting a relatively good answer about this one.

[£400 for a Penny ?]

If you're talking Aussie coins, you need a 'Macdonald' - Greg Macdonald. My copy is a bit out of date, but I presume he's still going. In the 10th edition (Nov 2002), he gives mintage figures of 2,184,000 in total for Sov's (be aware that there are concurrent Shield and St George reverses running from 1871 to 1887). For this coin he gives the following values;

Fine:$200 AUS, VF:350, EF:1500, aUNC:1500, Unc: 5500, Choice Unc:8000, Gem:11,000, Proof:50,000

1871 is the first coin of the series and in VF (which yours might be) it is the 3rd rarest of the sequence.

I have some experience of the market in Oz - I used to get a load of stuff sent over 10 years ago or so, interest in the 'old stuff' has always been high because so little of it survives. It would seem that in the intervening eight years since I last looked, Aussie collectors have heated the market up quite a bit.

Flog it on ebay Australia mate.

[azda]

If you're talking Aussie coins, you need a 'Macdonald' - Greg Macdonald. My copy is a bit out of date, but I presume he's still going. In the 10th edition (Nov 2002), he gives mintage figures of 2,184,000 in total for Sov's (be aware that there are concurrent Shield and St George reverses running from 1871 to 1887). For this coin he gives the following values;

Fine:$200 AUS, VF:350, EF:1500, aUNC:1500, Unc: 5500, Choice Unc:8000, Gem:11,000, Proof:50,000

1871 is the first coin of the series and in VF (which yours might be) it is the 3rd rarest of the sequence.

I have some experience of the market in Oz - I used to get a load of stuff sent over 10 years ago or so, interest in the 'old stuff' has always been high because so little of it survives. It would seem that in the intervening eight years since I last looked, Aussie collectors have heated the market up quite a bit.

Flog it on ebay Australia mate.

Thanks 400, i've actually seen quite a few in hi grades, including an 1878M in Good EF (George & Dragon Rev) and an 1871 Sydney Shield back in AUNC. I assume the prices you've quoted there are from the 2002 McDonald book you're talking about. Is that just for Aussie coins? I've no idea what grade the Sov i bought is yet, the picture wasn't that great and i'm still waiting on it in hand, but here's the 1871 Sydney Shield back

[£400 for a Penny ?]

Stick it up when it arrives and we'll have a look at it.

As a general principle though, I think one has to be dreaming in this day and age, if one thinks one has found a bargain online.

Strong chance that what you paid for it is about what it's worth minus 15% or so when talking about Sov's.

Whatever the books say.

[azda]

Stick it up when it arrives and we'll have a look at it.

As a general principle though, I think one has to be dreaming in this day and age, if one thinks one has found a bargain online.

Strong chance that what you paid for it is about what it's worth minus 15% or so when talking about Sov's.

Whatever the books say.

250 euros wasn't such a bad dream. What does your McDonald book quote the 1871S Shield Back at in AUNC?

Edited October 23, 2010 by azda