Spink/any Price Guide Figures!

[Rob]

The hard to find things nearly always sell over book. It only takes two people with the same degree of knowledge.

[Peckris]

When Rotographic was owned by Mr Marles he used to publish CCGB with the note that prices were compiled from 'Auctions and dealers lists', but that raises a whole raft of potential problems :

1. A coin turns up in an auction during the year, and is bought by a dealer at half its 'book price', for stock.

2. The same coin turns up on the dealer's list at 'book price'.

3. Eventually he sells it at a discount because it's not moving.

4. The buyer changes their mind and submits it for another auction where this time it's bought by a collector at 3/4 book price, dealers having dropped out.

So the same coin data could have been used three times over in the guide - one from an auction where 'wholesale' price was paid, once from a dealer's list where there were no takers at that price, and once from another auction where it realised 3/4 book price. The compilers of a guide would get completely knotted up about the coin's value, and would probably list it lower than a collector might be prepared to pay, who was looking for that specific coin to fill a gap.

[Rob]

When Rotographic was owned by Mr Marles he used to publish CCGB with the note that prices were compiled from 'Auctions and dealers lists', but that raises a whole raft of potential problems :

1. A coin turns up in an auction during the year, and is bought by a dealer at half its 'book price', for stock.

2. The same coin turns up on the dealer's list at 'book price'.

3. Eventually he sells it at a discount because it's not moving.

4. The buyer changes their mind and submits it for another auction where this time it's bought by a collector at 3/4 book price, dealers having dropped out.

So the same coin data could have been used three times over in the guide - one from an auction where 'wholesale' price was paid, once from a dealer's list where there were no takers at that price, and once from another auction where it realised 3/4 book price. The compilers of a guide would get completely knotted up about the coin's value, and would probably list it lower than a collector might be prepared to pay, who was looking for that specific coin to fill a gap.

All of which suggests to me that we are travelling more in hope than conviction, given everyone is putting their own slant on why it should be impossible to accurately price anything.

As you were chaps. Live and die by your own actions, or more of the first and less of the second if you can make the effort to come up to speed in your chosen field.

[Bronze & Copper Collector]

Whatever reference you use... It is only a GUIDE.... As it says in the title..

Use and interpret the data as you will based on your knowledge....

It is not, nor is it meant to be an absolute price list... only a price guide..

Use it for relative rarity etc... at least that's how I use them... Especially a massive guiide such as Krause.....

[Peter]

Can't resist bargain hunt

Yep I agree with Rob.

[Gary1000]

The problem I have is when someone like Spinks produce a guide but take absolutly no notice of it when selling coins. This makes me feel very synical, does the Spinks book mean anything at all or is it just a revenue stream, well it is yes but do they really put any effort into it if they are not prepared to stand by it.

[Nicholas]

It's a brilliant guide. We all use it including the rest of the world. We're just working out some of the science behind it which in the end is rather arbitrary anyway. This price guide sets your sell price as well as your purchase price. So it should even itself out in the long run..

[Rob]

An example for consideration.

Yesterday I bought an Oxford 2/6d, so making a timely comparison in various references I see the following - CMV (2013) has Oxford halfcrown from £325 Fine, £750 VF; Spink (2014) doesn't have the variety fully listed, but based on the obverse which is and what I interpret as the correct ref for the reverse, Fine is £250, VF £750. CCGB doesn't go this far back, and CYB I haven't got.

So CMV lists a catch all figure starting at 325 but this number has to cover over 100 die combinations, some of which are very common, others are unique. Spink have 25 different references for Oxford halfcrowns which is considerably better, but still don't have the reverse description for the coin I purchased included in the list. I paid twice book on the basis that an example sold for roughly the same in Adams (2005) and in any case I only have a list of 5 coins from two die combinations in total to choose from once the BM's coin is taken off the list.

The VF price has only gone up from £675 in 2006 to £750 today for the same ref no.

The only conclusion to be drawn is that no reference is of the slightest use. Do your own spadework if you need a number.

[Peckris]

An example for consideration.

Yesterday I bought an Oxford 2/6d, so making a timely comparison in various references I see the following - CMV (2013) has Oxford halfcrown from £325 Fine, £750 VF; Spink (2014) doesn't have the variety fully listed, but based on the obverse which is and what I interpret as the correct ref for the reverse, Fine is £250, VF £750. CCGB doesn't go this far back, and CYB I haven't got.

So CMV lists a catch all figure starting at 325 but this number has to cover over 100 die combinations, some of which are very common, others are unique. Spink have 25 different references for Oxford halfcrowns which is considerably better, but still don't have the reverse description for the coin I purchased included in the list. I paid twice book on the basis that an example sold for roughly the same in Adams (2005) and in any case I only have a list of 5 coins from two die combinations in total to choose from once the BM's coin is taken off the list.

The VF price has only gone up from £675 in 2006 to £750 today for the same ref no.

The only conclusion to be drawn is that no reference is of the slightest use. Do your own spadework if you need a number.

That's a bit strong! Wouldn't it be fairer to say that they are simply a guide, as various members have said, and that a complete newbie could judge from them which are the rarest types and dates? They would also see from them, that Edward VII silver in general is much scarcer and pricier than Geo V for example. Ok, we experienced collectors know that already, but if I were buying a Caracalla denarius in GVF, I'd at least know the general ballpark I was in.

I think it would be fairer to say that all price guides should be taken with a pinch of salt, but in general, and depending on the eye appeal, strike quality, etc, one could vary a given value up or down by something considerably less than 100%. Exceptional rarities that only come on the market once in a blue moon would command their own values, of course.

[Rob]

Saying they are only a guide has been said many times before, but people still get hung up on the variable and frequently inapplicable values quoted. So, not of the slightest use is not too far OTT. Maybe I should retract that a little, as auction lots use the reference numbers in the description. It doesn't make the price any more accurate though.

[Nicholas]

To me that's the key to the value of a coin in this internet driven global market. Namely if you can buy one similar on the internet within day a week or perhaps 2-3 months it's just not that rare. If a coin comes up in an auction that you never see in a year or more then it's value skyrockets.

It's the same in all collectors realms. If you can find one on the internet the next day it's common.

For example, in Australia there was once a great rarity called a 1930 Penny. Before the internet that is. Today I could find one in 24hours and have it delivered in 2-3 days anywhere in the world. Hence the value is dropping. In fact there are a few hundred out in the market now circulating, yet in the olden days you may have only seen 1-2 per year for sale.

[RLC35]

To me that's the key to the value of a coin in this internet driven global market. Namely if you can buy one similar on the internet within day a week or perhaps 2-3 months it's just not that rare. If a coin comes up in an auction that you never see in a year or more then it's value skyrockets.

It's the same in all collectors realms. If you can find one on the internet the next day it's common.

For example, in Australia there was once a great rarity called a 1930 Penny. Before the internet that is. Today I could find one in 24hours and have it delivered in 2-3 days anywhere in the world. Hence the value is dropping. In fact there are a few hundred out in the market now circulating, yet in the olden days you may have only seen 1-2 per year for sale.

Nick

What is the going price, in Australia, for a 1930 Penny in VF or better? That is the only Aussie Penny I have never owned.

[Rob]

3 examples coming up a total of 5 times in the past 60 years in the case of the Oxford 2/6d.

[Nicholas]

Current price still holding around 15-20k AUD (10-15kGBP) at auction for say a pretty decent VF but slowly deteriorating. Probably half the price they were 10 - 15 years ago.

[Nicholas]

I'll take the oxford 2/6d any day.

[Nicholas]

S*#% sorry 15-20KAUD = 8-10K GBP

[Gary1000]

Saying they are only a guide has been said many times before, but people still get hung up on the variable and frequently inapplicable values quoted. So, not of the slightest use is not too far OTT. Maybe I should retract that a little, as auction lots use the reference numbers in the description. It doesn't make the price any more accurate though.

I agree, if a price guide author doesn't even follow it's own price guide when they sell coins the price guide is about as useful as a chocolate teapot. I guess this is a question for Chris, do you take any notice of your price guide when to cost the coins you sell.

[Coinery]

I'm not sure if people on here are generally hung-up about price guides, I think it's just an inquiry into number-crunching and how any given

Guide arrives at its number, and why?

With the variables of eye-appeal, lustre, etc.etc., I don't see how any guide can provide definitive figures, nor would expect it!

I'm pretty sure Chris uses his guide, he must believe in it, surely? However, he would have to take into account all the thing we all do, such as eye-appeal, dings, lustre, etc.

[Peckris]

I think being in thrall to price guides is something we all do as newbies, and gradually become less and less so with experience.

[Coinery]

I think being in thrall to price guides is something we all do as newbies, and gradually become less and less so with experience.

I don't think anyone could disagree with that!

[pokal02]

The biggest problem I would think in compiling a guide is the grading, especially as the gap between F & VF prices grows ever bigger - this alone would mean ebay has to be excluded, along with a good few dealers, assuming the grade of sold coins is not re-checked & adjusted (too big a job surely).

[Rob]

In the case of Spink, I think they use the catalogue description, which, although potentially liable to enhancement, is far more likely to represent reality than any eBay summary

[Peter]

Lets face facts that it is good as you are going to get for I book covering the era it does.