Una Climbing

[VickySilver]

With the "juice", an evidently nicer specimen of the famed Una and the Lion went for over 250,000 Dollars at Heritage yesterday. As usual fancy gold bits went high, and copper relatively languished with multiple Lots unsold. The 1851 florin, which sadly I guess I will never own went for about 25k USD by memory.

Interesting that Colonial bits such as New Zealand in many instances went for less than half low estimate or went unsold. Reserves/starting prices on many lots seemed very high in many instances IMO.

[Colin G.]

I must admit I thought the estimates/reserves in the farthings I looked at were over the top

[Coppers]

As nice as the design is on the UNA, I can think of a lot of other coins I'd rather have for the price paid.

Some of the reserve prices made it seem more like a fixed price sale than auction.

[Rob]

A lot of the estimates were too high and unsurprisingly quite a few lots passed.

I was looking at the P924, but this sold for 3600 hammer. Clearly that was due to the number on the slab as it was graded 65 by NGC. 3 years ago when it went through CNG it was in a NGC 63 slab and it sold for 2300. Previous to that it had been through Heritage. This piece wasn't a patch on the nice one that CNG sold just over a year ago, so obviously the 2 grade hike worked wonders for someone.

With regard to question of auctions resembling a fixed price sale, this was noted before when discussing a recent Baldwin offering. I think the estimates are a reflection of the efforts the auction houses are having to put in to attract custom. Yes they have a lot of material, but the perennial shortage of quality persists. If they are offering 105% of hammer to some people, that has to be reflected in the reserves which have to be effectively fully valued. There are too many people chasing too few quality pieces and too many auction houses offering too many lots that people don't really want, but losses aren't crystalised until a sale takes place. So the seller protects their investment by ensuring no loss takes place by using a high reserve. This in turn puts people off bidding because they subconsciously want a bargain, irrespective of whether a bid at the reserve level is a reasonable price to pay. It's probably all part of the wheels gradually coming off the bus. Too many people are in for too much money, reflected in the prices paid for the not quite there pieces rather than the best knowns.

With unrealistically low interest rates available to borrowers, it will be interesting to see what happens when they once again exceed inflation, which is where one would expect them to be.

[azda]

It's good to hear that people are finally passing on some Heritage offerings, it might bring their estimates And expectations down a little

[VickySilver]

I would imagine there to be some adjustments coming. One thing I noticed is that they ran through the lots with rapidity, without fanfare or announcements save for the above-mentioned Una.

[jaggy]

There were two coins that interested me and they both went for far more than I thought they were worth or was willing to pay.

In addition, a 1839 proof sixpence with the same grade (PF64) as my own went for about twice as much as I paid at Heritage just 9 months ago.

[Prax]

As nice as the design is on the UNA, I can think of a lot of other coins I'd rather have for the price paid.

Some of the reserve prices made it seem more like a fixed price sale than auction.

I too think that was precisely the case. I have been following the pennies and many of the Pennies from the Forest Gate sale made it Heritage. Not only did the buyer of those bargains at the Forest Gate sale not settle with the killing he made there. He listed many of those in the Heritage Auction and made another killing by starting many his coins with a reserve greater than what he paid for at Forest Gate (remarkably many sold)

http://coins.ha.com/c/lot-image.zx?saleNo=3037&lotNo=29748&lotIdNo=141084&inventoryNo=303729748&id=12053042

https://www.spink.com/lot-description.aspx?id=320001024

[shagreen]

For the Great Britain lots Large gold in particular and any gold pieces graded 65 and higher did very well. Also the crowns in these grades made serious prices but any gold /silver in lesser grades was marginal at best. And yes Australian coins were really off the boil investors have lost confidence in that market and a lot of material is coming up locally without the exchange rate risks.

[damian1986]

If interest rates get back to what they were in the 90s, a base rate of about 6%, a monthly mortgage repayment of £600 right now will shoot up to about £1,000. This is huge. The average take home wage is about £1600 per month, makes a big difference to what's left over.

About 30% of homeowners don't have a clue about what may happen with interest rates according to a 'financial attitude' survey undertaken by FT. Then 35% don't expect rates to rise at all over the next year. Heads buried in the sand?

I wonder if ( a ) house prices are going to have to fall as people won't be able to borrow as much, so reducing demand, ( b ) people will be forced to cash in on their investments, including coins, ( c ) people will start putting their money back into ISAs and things.

By all accounts the rise in rates will have to be gradual though. So maybe only things will level out for the foreseeable future.

It all makes me nervous about spending large amounts on coins either way. It's a shit time to be making any sort of financial commitment. Nothing's clear and too much uncertainty.

Edited January 7, 2015 by damian1986

[Rob]

It was ever the same. I didn't know where mortgage rates were going when I had one. I just made sure that it was never too large with a huge safety margin.

House and other asset prices ought/have to fall. Claims that it is different this time are nonsense - they never are in the final call. Reversion to the mean says they have to adjust to an affordable multiple of income for the masses. Prices are buoyed by all the buy to let landlords who get returns considerably in excess of what's on offer for deposits, which in turn are held down by artificially low interest rates. Nothing will happen until interest rates return to sensible commercial levels. So all this QE has gone into assets and their inflated prices rather than kickstarting the economy. The economy will look after itself if the potential rewards are great enough, because you will always find someone willing to try under the right conditions, but the 'free' money issued in the past 6 years has ensured that no risky long term ventures needed to be contemplated.

Edited January 7, 2015 by Rob

[damian1986]

It was ever the same. I didn't know where mortgage rates were going when I had one. I just made sure that it was never too large with a huge safety margin.

Good point. I'm looking at mortgages based not so much on what current monthly repayments are but what they might be. Hopefully it'll all work out. One advantage of committing to a mortgage this year is that there is the option to fix interest rates. They can't get any lower (unless you're Swiss)..

As to safety margins well I don't think a lot of people are being sensible about this. Purchasing at the higher end of the housing market means monthly repayments could quite easily double or triple within the next 5 years. Which is a big problem if people only factor in current repayments against income.

The argument seems to be house prices haven't even got back to their 2008 levels. So what. They were too high then. As if prices are somehow preordained by the Property Gods.

Back to coins I feel the safest approach as a collector is to spend an amount that doesn't have to show a return in the short to medium term. But with the more expensive ones especially, it'd be nice to know that they will at least retain a good chunk of their value. Prices seem a bit too high for this to hold right now.

Edited January 7, 2015 by damian1986

[damian1986]

Just saw the edit. I never really understood how quantitative easing was going to play out. £375bn. My understanding is that most of this would only really boost spending if those who benefited (the rich) are encouraged to spend. But there are never any guarantees that those with extra money will actually spend.

I always felt the same about lower taxes for businesses. Yes in theory they could take risks and spend money and bring on new staff and grow, etc. But in practice it'd be very easy to sit on the extra cash and then the directors take a bigger payout at the end of the year.

Edited January 7, 2015 by damian1986

[jaggy]

It was ever the same. I didn't know where mortgage rates were going when I had one. I just made sure that it was never too large with a huge safety margin.

Good point. I'm looking at mortgages based not so much on what current monthly repayments are but what they might be.

I have 15 years fixed at 3.125%. A rise in interest rates would be good for me as it would boost income from savings but would not increase my mortgage repayments. I am sure that I am not alone.

The economic landscape is complicated and the impact of an interest rate rise on investments in coins would not necessarily depress prices.

[VickySilver]

Meanwhile, nicer Bunheads like the 1864s and some proofs of that era and later languished. How deep is the market for top end pennies?

[azda]

Well on my travels through internet land i found this for $2300

[azda]

Or this

[azda]

Or even this

[VickySilver]

Yikes, those coins would have gone for maybe 40% that even in the Heritage sale!

[Coppers]

Dave...looks like you've been checking out the Atlas website. A number of their pennies came from last summer's Spink USA and subsequent sales. One thing that I have noticed is that proof of record pennies -- particularly those of Victoria have been appearing at auction in far greater numbers than I can recall seeing in the past.

[Rob]

I suspect the US TPGs are slabbing some prooflike coins as proofs. I've seen a few in the past which were so described, so I would want to see the coin in hand before committing a large amount of cash, unless I was familiar with the raw coin in question.

[Coinery]

Don't think much of the prints all over the first one, but what lovely pennies otherwise.

[VickySilver]

Uhhh, those were top flight coins off of the Spink Numismatic Circular in their absolute heydey. These were and are superior coins, just high priced IMO.

[Peckris]

That 1868 proof is truly gorgeous ... though I suspect the contrast between red and brown (oh sorry - lustre and non-lustre ) would be much more noticeable "in hand".

[Colin88]

If interest rates get back to what they were in the 90s, a base rate of about 6%, a monthly mortgage repayment of £600 right now will shoot up to about £1,000. This is huge. The average take home wage is about £1600 per month, makes a big difference to what's left over.

About 30% of homeowners don't have a clue about what may happen with interest rates according to a 'financial attitude' survey undertaken by FT. Then 35% don't expect rates to rise at all over the next year. Heads buried in the sand?

I wonder if ( a ) house prices are going to have to fall as people won't be able to borrow as much, so reducing demand, ( b ) people will be forced to cash in on their investments, including coins, ( c ) people will start putting their money back into ISAs and things.

By all accounts the rise in rates will have to be gradual though. So maybe only things will level out for the foreseeable future.

It all makes me nervous about spending large amounts on coins either way. It's a shit time to be making any sort of financial commitment. Nothing's clear and too much uncertainty.

Whereas 99% of bankers dont have a clue......