CGS valuations

[mrbadexample]

Hi all,

I was just wondering if CGS ever update their valuations.

I.e. if a coin was slabbed 5 years ago and given a value of £100, will this be the same value given if I go and check the coin in 5 years time, regardless of the fluctuations in the market? Is it possible to determine when a coin was slabbed and valued?

Surely, if it remains the same it's all largely pointless?

Thoughts appreciated.

Cheers,

MBE

[jacinbox]

Why do you worry about CGS valuation? No one takes their valuations seriously including LCA.

[mrbadexample]

5 minutes ago, jacinbox said:

Why do you worry about CGS valuation? No one takes their valuations seriously including LCA.

I don't worry about it. I'm not the worrying kind. However, if I'm buying a coin I would like to know I'm not paying more than I should. So where do I go for an accurate valuation? I need some kind of reference, not having all the current valuations stored in my head.

[jacinbox]

http://www.rotographic.com/buy-ebooks/

Edited May 2, 2016 by jacinbox

[jaggy]

41 minutes ago, mrbadexample said:

I don't worry about it. I'm not the worrying kind. However, if I'm buying a coin I would like to know I'm not paying more than I should. So where do I go for an accurate valuation? I need some kind of reference, not having all the current valuations stored in my head.

My primary source of reference for prices are auction archives and mainly LCA, Heritage and DNW. That works very well for fairly common coins. Rarer coins are trickier as they come up at auction less frequently and so there is less of a track record.

Then you have to factor in how badly you want the coin and how much of a premium you are willing to pay for it.

[Paulus]

CGS update their valuations annually. The values are for a particular variety of coin in a particular grade, rather than for individual examples. Valuations by grade (and by year) can be found in their 'Valuations by grade' section.

The values assigned to a particular coin thus simply reflect the variety and the grade, and are automatically updated.

Here are comparisons of 2011 and 2016 valuations for some Viccy florins:

I don't know of a way to find out exactly when a coin was graded, but they have been going 9 1/2 years and have graded about 40,000 coins, so you can take a stab at it.

Each coin has a sequential UIN, so a guess at a coin with UIN 30000 would be some time in 2013

Edited May 2, 2016 by Paulus

[mrbadexample]

 

39 minutes ago, jacinbox said:

http://www.rotographic.com/buy-ebooks/

I've got a copy of CCGB. I've also got a copy of Spink (and the cynic in me wonders if the super-high valuations listed are to help their auctions achieve better results, or specifically for ebay sellers to quote.  ).

I usually rely on a combination of as many references as I can lay my hands on, but what makes you discount the CGS valuations? Experience would lead me to believe that most people would accept them.

But are they updated?

[mrbadexample]

6 minutes ago, jaggy said:

Then you have to factor in how badly you want the coin...

Very. I have no patience and want it now.

[mrbadexample]

8 minutes ago, Paulus said:

CGS update their valuations annually. The values are for a particular variety of coin in a particular grade, rather than for individual examples. Valuations by grade (and by year) can be found in their 'Valuations by grade' section.

The values assigned to a particular coin thus imply reflect the variety and the grade, and are automatically updated.

Here are comparisons of 2011 and 2016 valuations for some Viccy florins:

I don't know of a way to find out exactly when a coin was graded, but they have been going 9 1/2 years and have graded about 40,000 coins, so you can take a stab at it.

Each coin has a sequential UIN, so a guess at a coin with UIN 30000 would be some time in 2013

Thanks Paul. That's what I was looking for - it just occurred to me that they might not update. 

Cheers,

Jon

[Rob]

Interesting that people always highlight what they consider to be OTT valuations, yet never raise the subject of the undervalued ones. There are significant numbers of coins with a super-low valuation. Certainly a lot that I would happily buy at the quoted prices if they were ever to become available. However, by definition there must be reasonable numbers of the slabbed ones circulating for them to be slabbed in the first place - so maybe your cynicism is justified.

[mrbadexample]

I've always thought CCGB to be pretty much in the right area Rob, but I'm struggling to find quarter-farthings on the same page.

[jaggy]

34 minutes ago, Rob said:

Interesting that people always highlight what they consider to be OTT valuations, yet never raise the subject of the undervalued ones. There are significant numbers of coins with a super-low valuation. Certainly a lot that I would happily buy at the quoted prices if they were ever to become available. However, by definition there must be reasonable numbers of the slabbed ones circulating for them to be slabbed in the first place - so maybe your cynicism is justified.

The valuation is one thing and what one is willing to pay is quite another.

And auctions can be fickle. I have bought coins at Heritage for half of what very similar examples fetched at DNW while other coins have fetched far more at Heritage than they have in other auctions. So it is far from being an exact science.

[Rob]

I was thinking more in terms of how the masses relate to the published prices. Individual examples that buck the trend or go ballistic are always just around the corner.

The past few years with bronze pennies have shown that, get a rare variety and suddenly it is nerd city with prices going anywhere and everywhere. 20K for the 'slender 3' 1863, but then someone else comes up with a more difficult date in unc for a tenner. There are no rules.

[Colin G.]

I agree I would happily purchase some farthing varieties at CGS valuation prices all day long and then others are way OTT. It is a case of experience and research with a hint of price guide applied 

[PWA 1967]

Some CGS prices are way over for UNC / BU grade.

However some prices on the pennies are way to low especially coppers.

I would buy some at there prices everyday 

Recently i paid £60 for a copper penny .

Sent it for slabbing and they gave a value of £15 even though they hadnt slabbed another one and problem free.

Its a scarce one and think they just guessed at the price.

Would be happy to buy a few for £15 each 

[azda]

I bagged myself a rare 1860 1/2d and sent it to them, checking their valuations before it was graded their highest grade back then was valued at £750, when mine came back as their finest graded the valuations of the same coin dropped across the board, their previous finest known had dropped to around £400, bet the owner was a tad miffed, their value has gone back up now to around £550-£575 I think, it's all meaningless, it'll be worth what someone will pay.

Edited May 19, 2016 by azda

[PWA 1967]

Yes i agree Dave.

Suppose what i was really saying is if they have not slabbed any before.

Also not any compables as LCA had not sold one to put a price of £15 after me paying £13.75 to slab.....would of been better not putting a price on.

I wont be selling it and not for £15 

[azda]

So in reality Pete, CGS value your coin at £1.25 because the cost of the slab was £13.75, air, pluck, out, figure, of comes to mind. 

[PWA 1967]

2 minutes ago, azda said:

So in reality Pete, CGS value your coin at £1.25 because the cost of the slab was £13.75, air, pluck, out, figure, of comes to mind. 

[azda]

On 2 May 2016 at 7:02 PM, mrbadexample said:

Thanks Paul. That's what I was looking for - it just occurred to me that they might not update. 

Cheers,

Jon

The proof is in the pudding, maybe check the Londoncoins upcoming auction and see if there is any CGS slabs up for sale, see what their estimate is and then check their website for valuation, both should in theory match, then wait until the realised prices come out and see what you get......

[azda]

On 2 May 2016 at 6:51 PM, Paulus said:

CGS update their valuations annually. The values are for a particular variety of coin in a particular grade, rather than for individual examples. Valuations by grade (and by year) can be found in their 'Valuations by grade' section.

The values assigned to a particular coin thus simply reflect the variety and the grade, and are automatically updated.

Here are comparisons of 2011 and 2016 valuations for some Viccy florins:

I don't know of a way to find out exactly when a coin was graded, but they have been going 9 1/2 years and have graded about 40,000 coins, so you can take a stab at it.

Each coin has a sequential UIN, so a guess at a coin with UIN 30000 would be some time in 2013

For arguments sake Paul, looking at the very bottom florin, does CGS have any graded at 82 or 85, makes you wonder where they get the 2016 price from in 85

[Paulus]

17 minutes ago, azda said:

For arguments sake Paul, looking at the very bottom florin, does CGS have any graded at 82 or 85, makes you wonder where they get the 2016 price from in 85

Yes it does, I can't verify whether they have graded one at 82 or 85 or not - I expect you have looked as well.

As far as auction 'estimates' go, I believe these are often set artificially low to attract interest - in other words they are not necessarily a form of valuation. The only true validation of any price guide or valuation on a coin is of course what it actually sells for, including commission.

[Rob]

Estimates are a difficult one. Typically an estimate should be set low as it will presumably reflect what the estimated market value is after a bit of competition. Given the current premium of 20% + VAT, an upper estimate of say 80% should in theory be somewhere about reference book prices, with lower estimate below that and a reflection of the reserve if applied. However, all this goes out the window when two people want the same thing.

[azda]

13 minutes ago, Paulus said:

Yes it does, I can't verify whether they have graded one at 82 or 85 or not - I expect you have looked as well.

As far as auction 'estimates' go, I believe these are often set artificially low to attract interest - in other words they are not necessarily a form of valuation. The only true validation of any price guide or valuation on a coin is of course what it actually sells for, including commission.

I can't get on there from home as it appears that they have some issues with German IPs, funnily enough i have been on with my iPhone with vodafone, so not sure what the issue is there, but can't be arsed scrolling through all that with such a small screen might send this,