MickM Posted June 9, 2021 Posted June 9, 2021 18 successful bids with LCA, 13 at my maximum bid. Nothing suspicious there then. 2 2 Quote
oldcopper Posted June 9, 2021 Posted June 9, 2021 53 minutes ago, MickM said: 18 successful bids with LCA, 13 at my maximum bid. Nothing suspicious there then. And not having an internet bidding service makes people even more reliant on their integrity. 2 Quote
secret santa Posted June 9, 2021 Posted June 9, 2021 As I posted last week, I secured a lot at £140 below my maximum bid. And every time I've attended their auctions (literally dozens) it's appeared to be done fairly. But, who knows ? Quote
1949threepence Posted June 9, 2021 Posted June 9, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, MickM said: 18 successful bids with LCA, 13 at my maximum bid. Nothing suspicious there then. So from a purely technical standpoint, if you got the 13 lots at exactly your bid amount, that would surely indicate 13 others bidding an identical sum to you, but after you made your bid. Is that the rule? If so, yes, it does sound somewhat implausible. The odds against such a long series of co-incidences all occurring at the same time, for the same event, totally by random chance, must be astronomic. Maybe a conundrum for someone well versed in probability theory. I bid £800 for my F169, and got it for £750. Only half expected to win it Bid £600 for my 1831 UNC penny, and got it for £360. Fully expected to win it. What were the bid/win differentials with your other five lots? Edited June 9, 2021 by 1949threepence Quote
jelida Posted June 9, 2021 Posted June 9, 2021 The likelihood of winning for your maximum bid varies a great deal depending on where you pitch your bid with respect to the reserve/lower estimate, book value of the coin, whether you tend to go one bid over round figures and I am sure many other factors. A simplistic example would be some-one who makes bids at the reserve prices on multiple offerings. He may not expect to win many, but he knows that those he does win are at a sensible price, and all will be at his maximum bid. Without knowing the figures involved it is really not possible to suggest foul play. Estimates of value are not dissimilar amongst people who do their prior research, and therefore many bidders are likely to drop out at around the same figure in an auction. The generous valuer will pay more and win more, but at higher prices and closer to his maximum. Some bidders bidding patterns will dictate that when they do win, it is more likely to be at or near the most they would pay. My thoughts, anyway. Just praying that Covid regs are relaxed soon, and I can go to a Coin Fair and purchase in less frenetic environment. Jerry 3 Quote
secret santa Posted June 9, 2021 Posted June 9, 2021 5 hours ago, 1949threepence said: So from a purely technical standpoint, if you got the 13 lots at exactly your bid amount, that would surely indicate 13 others bidding an identical sum to you, but after you made your bid. Not necessarily - I'd interpret it as 13 other bidders having maximum bids one increment below Mick's. A bit of a coincidence but if the bids were around the estimated price, then not altogether unlikely in my view. 2 Quote
1949threepence Posted June 9, 2021 Posted June 9, 2021 29 minutes ago, secret santa said: Not necessarily - I'd interpret it as 13 other bidders having maximum bids one increment below Mick's. A bit of a coincidence but if the bids were around the estimated price, then not altogether unlikely in my view. OK, thanks Richard. Never quite sure with multiple bidders. One of those things I'd need to see in action a couple of times, with facts and figures, in order to get a proper handle on it. Quote
VickySilver Posted June 9, 2021 Posted June 9, 2021 Hmmm, I don't think that 13 of the bids would be won at maximum out of the 18. That doesn't compute well. Maybe three to five at most. 2 Quote
MickM Posted June 12, 2021 Author Posted June 12, 2021 Thanks for your comments all. A little further analysis, my successful bids were on average 24% over high estimate, which is not unreasonable as estimates tend to be 'come and get me'. A telling stat however is that there were no occasions where my high bid was matched and I lost the lot because a rival bid was received before mine. As my bids were entered late I would have expected this to have occurred several times if the bidding was tight. Be interesting to hear what Semra has to say when I pick up my lots on Monday! Quote
1949threepence Posted June 12, 2021 Posted June 12, 2021 48 minutes ago, MickM said: Thanks for your comments all. A little further analysis, my successful bids were on average 24% over high estimate, which is not unreasonable as estimates tend to be 'come and get me'. A telling stat however is that there were no occasions where my high bid was matched and I lost the lot because a rival bid was received before mine. As my bids were entered late I would have expected this to have occurred several times if the bidding was tight. Be interesting to hear what Semra has to say when I pick up my lots on Monday! I hope you'll let us know. Quote
secret santa Posted June 12, 2021 Posted June 12, 2021 5 hours ago, MickM said: Be interesting to hear what Semra has to say when I pick up my lots on Monday! Not a lot, I venture to suggest. Quote
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