Menger

I have noticed Atlas not infrequently resells in Auction World in Japan. With the yen so weak I would have expected that to slow a little.

Most investors in the Tulip Mania of 1637 were the (“expert”) merchants; Isaac Newton was a famous loser in the South Sea Bubble (1720) but the establishment was generally invested. I have yet to meet someone who bought crypto other than as a speculation of higher prices. Speculative instruments are a poor store of value - so won’t become “money”. But a form of “money” was the original rationale for crypto (before speculation took over). A tulip planted in sand … I still say it will “test zero” before it becomes “money”.

Thanks. Just in time for Christmas.

The second part of this auction sale was advertised on the Geoffrey Cope Collection website (still is) as taking place in October 2024. They are leaving things a bit late if they intend to squeeze it in this month. Has anyone heard anything about it?

How about CNG or Stephen Album? The former sold the Mildenhall collection although that was generally first tier quality - and CNG appear to have graded it first with NGC. The latter sometimes has interesting, even raw coins. My sense is that the U.S. market generally is slab-centric though. If it were my collection I would probably slab the very best stuff and sell the rest raw at Noonans or some such place in the UK. Or eBay with a view to drip feed sales over several years with some nice photos and fixed pricing open to offers … I think second tier / raw coins sold quickly will produce steep discounts.

I have the June sale catalogue Auction 185 if you want it.

Sure - and “condition rarity” of currency coins can (as you point out) be a big factor. But rarity is only half of the supply and demand equation by which prices are formed.

I like London Coins. I have had no issue with their email bidding - wins have come in on my highest bid and way below it. My sense is that the analogue procedures and potential risks (poor photos, effectively closed door auctions) keep bids away - especially for international bidders. In other words, the chance of a relative bargain. If such an apples to apples comparison were possible (I don’t think it is) it would be interesting to see how London Coin results compare to elsewhere, then relative to the 17% buyers premium they charge. My sense may also be wrong: the act of needing to submit a one off email bid certainly encourages me to add on a sizable safety margin if bidding for something I really want. Perhaps others do the same … ?

Agreed. Not a scam nor a ponzi: a speculative instrument that will test zero before it becomes money. Like a tulip.

Two quibbles: The money does not “go” anywhere after purchase of crypto, other than into the pockets of the person who sold the crypto (and from there into the hands of anyone he subsequently purchases goods and services, including more crypto, from). Crypto does have “intrinsic” value in that it can be used as speculation or as a (very short term) means of exchange. But it cannot be used for savings due to its volatility and so cannot be “money” itself. So it will test zero before it becomes money (which it won’t).

National currencies are fiat currencies and so exclusively mandated by law for the settlement of tax and legal liabilities in the jurisdiction. This is a tether to reality - a real demand for the given supply. That real demand (like the real demand for gold, to fill teeth or make jewelry) prevents price action being arbitrary and purely speculative. Fiat currency can be inflated to zero - but for a given supply it has a demand separate from any purely speculative demand. Prices of fiat currencies can go up and down (denominated in gold or other fiat currencies) but not to the moon or (absent aforementioned inflation) zero. This gives them relative stability, so they can be used for savings. As such, they can be generally accepted as a means of payment - “money”.

I don’t think the hedge funds are acting differently from anyone else: they are speculating. They are not seeking to substitute bitcoin as a form of “money”. As speculators, Hedge fund can go short as quickly as they can go long. It is precisely this “speculative” essence of bitcoin which means it can test the moon, or zero - and will test the latter before it becomes “money” (which it never will).

Yes - but those taxes are denominated in fiat currency. Only if bitcoin becomes a fiat currency (so that the taxes are denominated in bitcoin, and not a $€£¥ equivalent) would bitcoin have an equivalent “intrinsic” value that could save it from testing zero. Alternatively, if some dentist devises a way to use bitcoin to fill teeth, it will also have a safety net.

Nobody has lost £1k. Same as if you bought a pre-decimal coin from Peter and the sold it to Paul for £1k profit. Peter wanted the money you paid him more than the coin; Paul wanted the coin more than the money he paid you. Otherwise, neither transaction would have taken place. It is a win-win-win situation. 😊 Of course - there is buyer’s remorse. But that is another matter …

Certainly I never expected that, for the reasons I have given in this thread and in this forum before. But that was indeed the basic premise behind the initial launch, hype and speculation. Now the speculation itself seems to have taken over as the reason for the speculation (bootstraps) - nobody anymore claims to acquire bitcoin as a better, less traceable, inflation resistant, convenient form of “money”, but because they hope to cash in for (real) money at a higher price.