Menger

Yes. Rarity (of supply) is only relevant relative to demand. My daughter’s art work is rare … Also relevant is the relevant cohort of the supply - Maundy money for any given year may scarce but supply is available for every single year so nobody cares.

I had a crack at the 1924 gold 3d in the recent Sincona auction (lot 1931). This was rated R7. Sadly it got away; but I do own another 3d, different date, nearly as rare - in nickel. I would never ever sell it! (Though I might be tempted to swap it for the gold one … ).

More likely than what? Michael Gouby’s theory is rather that both 1847/8 and 1848/7 are made with 1847 dies, and both struck in 1848 - but yes the added 8 in the former is not properly over-struck. That makes sense to me. But supposedly the 1847/8 is a much rarer coin and has other distinguishing features (and at least two varieties itself). For this reason it gets distinguished in the reference books - although confusingly sometimes called 1847/6.

Not specifically addressing your question, but somewhat related: I would persevere with NGC. I did and while it took a few follow ups they revisited their categorization of many 1847/8 groats (including mine) v 1848/7 groats, to make the former rarer than the latter. At about the same time they obliterated their 1847 and 1848 3d categories (relegating these wholesale to Maundy - to my great satisfaction) and seemingly they similarly thinned out their 1841 and 1846 3d populations. There seemed to be a recognition that the British population reports need work.

Agreed. Unless there is step change in increased productivity caused by AI and they spend their twilight years in milk and honey.

I think that is right. “Time preference” as the Austrians call it: we are hard wired to want more over less; which boils down to something today rather than tomorrow (we may not be here tomorrow) - unless we perceive what we might get tomorrow as more (better) than what we will get today. In collecting, waiting hopefully pays off (we may get more (better) in the end) but we all have a breaking point where optimism and patience gives way to opportunity and gratification. All this reflects the human condition. That will not change. But as the world becomes more virtual and instantaneous, I expect we will attach evermore value to tangible relics and the long game …

An early, proof-like strike still deserves a premium though. Indeed, it may be more scarce than a genuine proof. So I don’t steer completely clear.

Yes it is possible people just go nuts in auctions when confronted by a bid one increment higher that their max. I am skeptical this is the general state of affairs that explains higher trends in price. From my own introspection, when I have been tempted to bid more than I planned, I would say in retrospect that the process actually better flushed out bids from me that properly reflected the max I would actually pay (rather than hoped to pay). On that theory, I have never bought a coin in an auction for more than just a bit more than someone else actually valued it at that time. (Save for the odd coin I have managed to get with no other bids). My sense is auctions are generally very effective at real price discovery - but with a huge caveat that the market must be liquid (I.e., there must be at least two tangero). This may not be the case for more specialist varieties and wot not. I just picked up 3 modest (but scarce) coins at Noonans that went for a fraction of what I was prepared to pay - my dance partner(s) just failed to show up. Perhaps the music (small silver) was a bit out of fashion? Not that I care.

So the dealers then compete in auctions with the guy they hope to sell to - thus bidding up price?

It takes two to tango, surely?

Yes. It was. It is also a comment on price - and whether price fairly reflects value. With TPG, there is clearly a gap: the market wants TPG (it reduces risk) but TPG often misses value (such as “nice” coins - or coins that some British collector thinks deserve a better grade). That creates an arbitrage opportunity for you to use your noggin and exploit - but in time I expect technology will close the gap and price will more correctly reflect value. That will be good for everyone. The future will be a crack-out.

No doubt some of the price rise since the onset of Covid reflects the liquidity that was pumped into the system - some of that rise will go out with the tide. Longer term, I expect an evermore virtual world will create more demand for irreplaceable artifacts from the old world - like coins. I also expect the price gap between top quality and the rest will widen as technology connects more demand to a fairly static and scarce supply. The great arbitrage will be to recognize the quality that the grading companies miss: this may be technical (under-grading) or rare varieties (that TPG does not yet recognize) or the current undervaluation of particularly “nice” coins that are below the radar of TPG (based on a purely technical grade) - but may well be validated by future technologies that have more nuance (such as AI). The future is a crack-out.

Indeed. Patriotism is a belief in something bigger, it provides individual meaning and group solidarity. As such it has much in common with religion and ideology. Humans need something to cohere and to avoid nihilism (or to avoid being engulfed by manias - as we have recently witnessed). An inclusive patriotism such as Britishness (I.e., not based on race, religion or ideology) seems to me potentially more inclusive and durable than alternatives such identity politics, “social justice”, climate activism or scientistism. It has certainly proven its worth over the centuries and to this day. I have lived in Cuba, France, Japan and the UK and in all of these I feel a sense of nation is critical to the vibrancy of the culture and people’s well-being. As George Orwell noted in the Lion and the Unicorn - the left has tended to scoff at patriotism as inferior to ideology. I think Orwell was perspicacious in recognizing that his freedom to freely hold an ideology at the time depended on British patriotism. (Or a sense of “Englishness” as he called it in his essay).

Hmmm. Didn’t infection rates increase after the jab roll out? Most people I know (except myself) got it only after being vaccinated. Personally I know nobody who had any major issue with Covid, but I do know half a dozen people who developed problems after the vaccine - including POTS, Mast Cell Activation Syndrome, hypotension, hearing loss, palpitations, placental abruption. So my sense is the roll out to everyone (not just the vulnerable, like my mum) was reckless. More politics than science. However, temporal correlation is not causation, and anecdote is statistically irrelevant, so please take my observations with a pinch of salt. Perhaps it was all safe and effective just as planned …

I don’t think people begrudge paying for what they don’t directly benefit from so much as paying for something that they feel condescends them. You may be right. Perhaps nothing will be done. Or the BBC may just fade away. However, I fear that the Garry episode has emboldened; it may double down - then go with a pop!