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So, Brexit....What's happening?

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Sorry Nick, completely unintentional - I just highlighted Mike's quote but it was within your quote so you got the blame ! Have to be careful with this feature, readers. Sorry again.

And I don't want a 2nd referendum either.

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1 hour ago, secret santa said:

The decisions have to be binary or else 34% of voters could decide for the remaining 66% - how would this go down ? I think you know !

So, it has to be a series of binary decisions and everyone has to vote on each of them

1 Leave or Remain

2 If leave, Deal or No Deal

3 If Deal, Mrs May's deal or WTO

Thus the issue would be decided at stage 1 if Remain gets >50% but goes to stage 2 if Leave gets >50%

At stage 2, with everyone voting, the issue is decided if No Deal wins, else goes to stage 3

At stage 3, with everyone voting, either accept Mrs May's deal or WTO terms.

If everyone follows the rules, you will emerge with something that >50% of the voters voted for.

Too complicated ?

 

I think that is a good idea, as long as the voting is all done at the same time. By the way, you don't need 3 - Deal means May's, No Deal means WTO. 

The choice of three options is also fair, but it would have to be written in that the winning margin couldn't be - for example - 34, 33, 32; the winning vote would have to be a clear % ahead of the next most popular, or it's No Decision and would have to be rerun. If the rerun was also No Decision, then lord knows what would happen next, it would have to go to a penalty shoot out... 

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1 hour ago, secret santa said:

The decisions have to be binary or else 34% of voters could decide for the remaining 66% - how would this go down ? I think you know !

So, it has to be a series of binary decisions and everyone has to vote on each of them

1 Leave or Remain

2 If leave, Deal or No Deal

3 If Deal, Mrs May's deal or WTO

Thus the issue would be decided at stage 1 if Remain gets >50% but goes to stage 2 if Leave gets >50%

At stage 2, with everyone voting, the issue is decided if No Deal wins, else goes to stage 3

At stage 3, with everyone voting, either accept Mrs May's deal or WTO terms.

If everyone follows the rules, you will emerge with something that >50% of the voters voted for.

Too complicated ?

 

No, not at all. That's a very fair way of doing it. Although No 3 could be "If deal, Mrs May's deal (or Norway/Canada +++) choose whichever" - given that no deal is, by default, WTO

Of course, if we do go down the 2nd referendum road, I can only imagine the arguments and in-fighting which will result over the wording and choice of questions.

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1 hour ago, secret santa said:

Too complicated ?

The obvious problem with any possible scenario is that if the answer is still leave, then parliament will not accept it.

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4 minutes ago, Nick said:

The obvious problem with any possible scenario is that if the answer is still leave, then parliament will not accept it.

They'd have no choice than to accept it and act accordingly.

I can't imagine the issue would be put to the electorate again, without a copper bottomed guarantee that the ultimate outcome would this time be immediately respected without further delay. The remaining extension to article 50 would no doubt be allowed to run its course, then we'd be completely out.      

 

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5 minutes ago, Nick said:

The obvious problem with any possible scenario is that if the answer is still leave, then parliament will not accept it.

Parliament is our constitutional democracy, elected by the People. The Executive - which used to be the Crown and is now the Government - is separate from that.

So, this is the complexity we now have: the Referendum Act passed by Parliament made it advisory only, i.e. not legally binding. The Executive, with no Parliamentary authority, decided to make the result binding and stated so on the ballot paper. That has created a divide where the legally passed Act has been modified by Government without the consent of Parliament, and it's the same divide as caused the Civil War, i.e. who has power, Parliament or the Executive?

You can insult Parliament all you like, but they are your democratic representatives, not Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Jacob Ree-Smogg acting from their own interests.

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42 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

They'd have no choice than to accept it and act accordingly.

Isn't that what they said in 2016.  "It is your decision. The government will implement what you decide.".  Yeah right.

Edited by Nick

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20 minutes ago, Nick said:

Isn't that what they said in 2016.  "It is your decision. The government will implement what you decide.".  Yeah right.

The government in 2016 overestimated its ability to negotiate Brexit. 

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1 hour ago, Sword said:

The government in 2016 overestimated its ability to negotiate Brexit. 

Indeed, and both we and them underestimated its complexity.

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2 hours ago, Sword said:

The government in 2016 overestimated its ability to negotiate Brexit. 

 

1 hour ago, 1949threepence said:

Indeed, and both we and them underestimated its complexity.

I think you give them too much credit. I don't think they considered for one moment that we might actually vote to leave. :rolleyes:

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1 hour ago, mrbadexample said:

 

I think you give them too much credit. I don't think they considered for one moment that we might actually vote to leave. :rolleyes:

Agreed, I'm sure David Cameron never expected for one second that the leave vote would succeed, and thus never even looked into the complexities/chaotic result of a clean break, to consider and pass on to the public. 

If he had so done, I'm pretty sure the outcome would have been different.   

Edited by 1949threepence

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1 hour ago, mrbadexample said:

I think you give them too much credit. I don't think they considered for one moment that we might actually vote to leave. :rolleyes:

 

35 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

Agreed, I'm sure David Cameron never expected for one second that the leave vote would succeed, and thus never even looked into the complexities/chaotic result of a clean break, and passed them on to the public. 

If he had so done, I'm pretty sure the outcome would have been different.   

 

In my view, Cameron called the referendum mainly solely to unite his Conservative Party. The issue of EU has caused so much infighting for the Conservatives over the years which he wanted to end once and for all. He would never have called the referendum if he thought there is a significant chance of him losing.

Then May actually thought she had what it takes to deliver a good Brexit. She didn't. But then again, I am not certain anyone does.

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FWIW, 3 years on I'm still waiting for someone to provide an argument as to why we should vote to remain. Not why we shouldn't leave, but to actually state a positive reason for doing so.

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Just posting sometimes I admire Tories saw some news that they are taking labour programs plan and implementing it even there are very fierce opposition with in the conservative still united and implement the program during  Cameroon times, it feels like Theressa have this deal or no deal WTO thinking that Tories have some kind of algorithm program for this kind of scenario that they all figured out what to do and protect there parties and interest against the labour either way the most worst scenario is no deal WTO they can get everything and still in power Theressa still have the confidence in seat or Tories is quite united or solid?. Or the reverse or labour is same as the Tories?. Algorithm have no emotion it's all base line numbers and profit?.  If WTO no deal EU will use to cordon the UK trade etc the biggest trade partner of Ireland or its product goes to the UK ?. While German products goes all to EU   and why Germany didn't make any car factory city in Ireland or advance medical school tech research here it is mostly US ?. 

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18 hours ago, Sword said:

In my view, Cameron called the referendum mainly solely to unite his Conservative Party. The issue of EU has caused so much infighting for the Conservatives over the years which he wanted to end once and for all. He would never have called the referendum if he thought there is a significant chance of him losing.

Then May actually thought she had what it takes to deliver a good Brexit. She didn't. But then again, I am not certain anyone does.

Agreed - that and winning back up to 4m UKIP voters (who were the only people actually CALLING for a referendum) to the Tory cause.

 

16 hours ago, Rob said:

FWIW, 3 years on I'm still waiting for someone to provide an argument as to why we should vote to remain. Not why we shouldn't leave, but to actually state a positive reason for doing so.

Is this separate from "why we should remain"? If so, the answer is short and easy: for all the benefits and advantages.

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Every four years, we have a general election. On each occasion, we are effectively asked if we are reasonably happy with the current government or do we think another party can do better. Each party tend to have one or two flagship policies which the public can evaluate. 

In 2016, we were given lots of reasons / opinions / speculations / trash / scaremongering for remaining and leaving but the issues surrounding Brexit are complex in the extreme. Frankly, even having a PhD in European Affairs coupled with years of research is not enough to enable someone to make an informed decision. Hence I think holding the 2016 referendum was a very flawed decision.

Margaret Thatcher once quoted Clement Attlee that referendums are "a device of dictators and demagogues". 

As it is, there is probably no way out except holding a second referendum. And yes, I do see the extreme irony. 

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says it all.....

shall i get philip to drive you home.jpg

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  • Haha 1

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2 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

says it all.....

shall i get philip to drive you home.jpg

Blimey, I knew Madge was small but not that small! I dare anyone to ask her what has happened to Dave Dee, Dozy, Beaky, and Mick...

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5 minutes ago, Peckris 2 said:

Blimey, I knew Madge was small but not that small! I dare anyone to ask her what has happened to Dave Dee, Dozy, Beaky, and Mick...

Well I know Theresa's quite a tall woman, but even so, the Queen is certainly quite diminutive in stature.

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Assuming remaining in the EU could be the option adopted I wonder how the UK will work with the EU after all the angst caused by the referendum. If UK stays will it be under the existing arrangements or will the UK have to adopt the Euro for example? I also wonder how the. UK can live with its self after being beaten into submission by a bunch of Europeans whose only aim is diminish the UK..

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Re above post.

Delete  ……..Europeans whose only aim is to diminish the UK and add  ………..European  bureaucrats something both Hitler and Napoleon failed to achieve.

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8 hours ago, ozjohn said:

Assuming remaining in the EU could be the option adopted I wonder how the UK will work with the EU after all the angst caused by the referendum. If UK stays will it be under the existing arrangements or will the UK have to adopt the Euro for example? I also wonder how the. UK can live with its self after being beaten into submission by a bunch of Europeans whose only aim is diminish the UK..

True colours even UK have a mistake voting for Brexit or it is destiny why EU will use all its power to make Brexit and renogotiation harder for UK  they should be more welcoming or UK and EU is at war since in the beginning EU and Euro is a treat to UK pounfs  or  US dollar why not have coins that is Euro that is same as coat of arms of UK when UK have France and Spain or each country have a currency by itself but also one currency for EU it would be a waste if UK pound will be replace by Euro where will be the center or central bank of EU or Euro when EU started to trade outside EU or create a currency like the East India currency just a thought even US dollar will have a second thought for reserve currency Federal shutdown for months?. Open port airport for Gibraltar all other countries can trade to UK in pounds they all seems to left UK by its own even they are saying UK wants to be alone by itself if they really want UK they can offer a lot since uniting EU is there aim?.  

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9 hours ago, ozjohn said:

I also wonder how the UK can live with its self after being beaten into submission by a bunch of Europeans whose only aim is diminish the UK..

There are many people in the UK who will see that as a victory.

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True but do not lose sight of the fact that a majority of the people voted to leave. Not a victory for democracy. 

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