The Craziness Continues

[Rob 3,002]

Who is paying the crazy prices we are seeing at auction? I only won one lot today and felt I had to call it a day when it got to 4x estimate/book on a few that I wanted. The Edward I pennies were selling for hundreds, and that's for common varieties. Even the Aberystwyth halfcrown that I thought(hoped) you might have picked up for £3-4K hammered at £7500. I'm not going to pay nearly £10K+ for an Aberystwyth 2/6d, or the James I Britain Crown which books at £675 in VF in this year's Spink, you would think it shouldn't be beyond expectations to get an EF for somewhere around the £2K mark, - that hammered at £3600 or nearly £4500 with the juice. I can't help feeling that someone is going to get badly burnt in the near future.

For the record, the big bucks pieces (all hammer, so add 24% for the real price) - £32K for the Eliz.1 mm.2 crown, £58K for the Scarborough, £42K for the 8 testerns, £22K for a Briot Unite and £70K for the triple unite which is a bit less than some have sold for recently.

[argentumandcoins 70]

Who is paying the crazy prices we are seeing at auction? I only won one lot today and felt I had to call it a day when it got to 4x estimate/book on a few that I wanted. The Edward I pennies were selling for hundreds, and that's for common varieties. Even the Aberystwyth halfcrown that I thought(hoped) you might have picked up for £3-4K hammered at £7500. I'm not going to pay nearly £10K+ for an Aberystwyth 2/6d, or the James I Britain Crown which books at £675 in VF in this year's Spink, you would think it shouldn't be beyond expectations to get an EF for somewhere around the £2K mark, - that hammered at £3600 or nearly £4500 with the juice. I can't help feeling that someone is going to get badly burnt in the near future.

For the record, the big bucks pieces (all hammer, so add 24% for the real price) - £32K for the Eliz.1 mm.2 crown, £58K for the Scarborough, £42K for the 8 testerns, £22K for a Briot Unite and £70K for the triple unite which is a bit less than some have sold for recently.

I was going to use livebid but decided to go off trout fshing instead today. I still got nothing but at least I tasted fresh air for a change (other than cigar smoke of course). I think the 1726 would have been beyond my budget today.

[azda 973]

Yanks............Cos Brits don't have the Geld, just ask any coin dealer

[HistoricCoinage 115]

Whilst it is true that many coins attracted a more than premium price I felt that many of the lower grade Aethelred IIs were going for pittance. It just goes to show that the market for common, average pieces is not going to catch up at the rate the rest of the market is. Still, it was a fantastic selection of coins in today's auction and I was lucky to walk away with a few.

[Rob 3,002]

Whilst it is true that many coins attracted a more than premium price I felt that many of the lower grade Aethelred IIs were going for pittance. It just goes to show that the market for common, average pieces is not going to catch up at the rate the rest of the market is. Still, it was a fantastic selection of coins in today's auction and I was lucky to walk away with a few.

The lower grade ones were cheap, but that's just a reflection of the undesirability of a lesser coin when better are available. If you are spending a few hundred pounds, it makes a lot more sense to spend twice as much on a decent example, whatever you are buying. After all, you are unlikely to have a solitary coin as the collection, so a couple dozen more or fewer in number doesn't affect the overall quality of the collection. A lot more coins in low grade does affect it for the worse.

Apart from that, who won the 2nd hand Lympne, Barnstaple Helmet and the 2nd reign Ed. IV Abp. Neville penny?

Edited March 29, 2012 by Rob

[HistoricCoinage 115]

Apart from that, who won the 2nd hand Lympne, Barnstaple Helmet and the 2nd reign Ed. IV Abp. Neville penny?

Not I but I really wanted that Barnstaple. It was such a pleasing example but I'm not willing to pay way over the odds.

[Rob 3,002]

Apart from that, who won the 2nd hand Lympne, Barnstaple Helmet and the 2nd reign Ed. IV Abp. Neville penny?

Not I but I really wanted that Barnstaple. It was such a pleasing example but I'm not willing to pay way over the odds.

It ticked every box. That's why it went to nearly 4x lower estimate. As I said before, if you have only one or two examples of a specific moneyer/mint/type then most people will put up with virtually anything, but few people are likely to be able to live with the 11th best out of 12.

[VickySilver 775]

There was precious little quality late milled, so no bids from me.

What did the QEII gold halfpenny go for?

[HistoricCoinage 115]

There was precious little quality late milled, so no bids from me.

What did the QEII gold halfpenny go for?

All realised prices are now on their website. Lot 1051 sold for £6,000 before buyer's commission.

[VickySilver 775]

Ouch!

Nice coin though...

[azda 973]

Do you think people are going to get burnt from these high prices, or do you think this is how things are going to be in the future? Are the British coins now playing catch up with the Americans? It does seem a lot of money 4x over book, but if you ever watch Heritage auctions you'll see some crazy prices for British coins there also

[Peckris 579]

Do you think people are going to get burnt from these high prices, or do you think this is how things are going to be in the future? Are the British coins now playing catch up with the Americans? It does seem a lot of money 4x over book, but if you ever watch Heritage auctions you'll see some crazy prices for British coins there also

If anyone of us could answer that question, we'd be millionaires tomorrow. For my part, I'm in the pessimist school on this one. Remember the 'never-ending bull market' and 'the end of boom and bust' we heard about at the Millennium? Look what happened in just 7 years. Philately - once ever more popular than coins - is now a shadow of itself. Economics dictates that demand simply cannot continue forever. The only reason for optimism (unless you're building a collection now) is that the supply of predecimals is not only finite but ever-shrinking; that doesn't guarantee that a demand will always be there (just look at stamps). Also, it would take forever for late 60s UK coins to find a demand to outstrip supply.

Edited March 30, 2012 by Peckris

[Accumulator 52]

Do you think people are going to get burnt from these high prices, or do you think this is how things are going to be in the future? Are the British coins now playing catch up with the Americans? It does seem a lot of money 4x over book, but if you ever watch Heritage auctions you'll see some crazy prices for British coins there also

If anyone of us could answer that question, we'd be millionaires tomorrow. For my part, I'm in the pessimist school on this one. Remember the 'never-ending bull market' and 'the end of boom and bust' we heard about at the Millennium? Look what happened in just 7 years. Philately - once ever more popular than coins - is now a shadow of itself. Economics dictates that demand simply cannot continue forever. The only reason for optimism (unless you're building a collection now) is that the supply of predecimals is not only finite but ever-shrinking; that doesn't guarantee that a demand will always be there (just look at stamps). Also, it would take forever for late 60s UK coins to find a demand to outstrip supply.

Like many, I collected stamps and coins as a boy. The stamps are now almost valueless and extreme rarities that could only be dreamed of 40 years ago can be purchased for comparatively little.

I often wonder why coins have held up while stamps have sunk in value? One significant reason may be the grading of coins but not of stamps This creates a rarified micro-market, even for relatively common coins. Or maybe the popularity of philately was driven more by young collectors, and it's no longer cool to collect, whereas coins (being money) always attracted an older enthusiast who are more loyal to the hobby?

[Cerbera100 0]

Sorry, I couldn't let this one pass without adding my (1983 new pence!) 2p worth!

Being comfortably in the lower 10 percentile (age-wise) of forum membership (Chris to verify!) and by 10years the youngest member of RCC, I got (and get) some mild-humoured flak from my peers about collecting coins... mention it to the average 16 year old these days, and its almost pity that I get! They are far to interesting in increasing their reciprocal carnal knowledge and narcotic intake to worry about anything else!(They still get 73 A*s at GSCE - but thats another thread!)

Unfortunately, collecting anything other that notches on the bedpost and various chemical highs is not considered "cool" therefore there are no new collectors therefore the demand (at a lower level) is gradually drying up...

With regard to the ridiculous priced that are achieved at auction and advertised on some dealers lists, my feeling is that to a large extent it is driven by auction to dealer to dealer to auction to auction to dealer sales... each added there 10 (or 15 or 20) percent mark up, and suddenly a £1000 coin is selling for nearly double that! Its an upward vicious circle, and when one of the components suddenly drops out, the market will collapse under its own weight, and one or two poor buggers will be left with a stock that is worth a quarter of what they paid for it.

How some hammer prices are achieved, I'll never know - particularly when you add the now almost standard 25% premium!

I give it 10yrs before I'll be able to pick up a 1746 Proof Crown for £2k!

Edited March 31, 2012 by Cerbera100

[argentumandcoins 70]

Sorry, I couldn't let this one pass without adding my (1983 new pence!) 2p worth!

Being comfortably in the lower 10 percentile (age-wise) of forum membership (Chris to verify!) and by 10years the youngest member of RCC, I got (and get) some mild-humoured flak from my peers about collecting coins... mention it to the average 16 year old these days, and its almost pity that I get! They are far to interesting in increasing their reciprocal carnal knowledge and narcotic intake to worry about anything else!(They still get 73 A*s at GSCE - but thats another thread!)

Unfortunately, collecting anything other that notches on the bedpost and various chemical highs is not considered "cool" therefore there are no new collectors therefore the demand (at a lower level) is gradually drying up...

With regard to the ridiculous priced that are achieved at auction and advertised on some dealers lists, my feeling is that to a large extent it is driven by auction to dealer to dealer to auction to auction to dealer sales... each added there 10 (or 15 or 20) percent mark up, and suddenly a £1000 coin is selling for nearly double that! Its an upward vicious circle, and when one of the components suddenly drops out, the market will collapse under its own weight, and one or two poor buggers will be left with a stock that is worth a quarter of what they paid for it.

How some hammer prices are achieved, I'll never know - particularly when you add the now almost standard 25% premium!

I give it 10yrs before I'll be able to pick up a 1746 Proof Crown for £2k!

I think the reasons for the meteoric rise in coin prices are a little bit more complex.

One of the main driving factors is the state of the economy/banking system. It has certainly pushed people with money into the collectables market, specifically high end coins. I have made high volume/value sales over the past 2/3 years to people whose main aim was investment. A couple of those buyers have developed an interest in numismatics and have now become collectors or "collector investors" if you like.

Some dealers do buy in one sale and try to flip in another. That does work sometimes but more often than not the coin sells for less second time around as anybody with their finger on the pulse will recognise it and think there must be something wrong with it if it appears again so quickly or realise what the ruse is.

Dealer to dealer sales are either based on wants eg Chris has a 34 wreath listed and I have a customer desperate for one or are based on one dealer seeing something another is selling way too cheaply.

I have noticed an upsurge in another breed of saleroom buyer, the ebay expert! I am often outbid on coins/sets and see them appear on ebay that or the next day at some stupid price. It is obvious that the seller has little or no knowledge of the subject matter and sees coins as an easy way to make money. Among these instant experts are an influx of Antique dealers who all have trade accounts in general salerooms. I have locked horns with a couple who have pushed prices to the max on individual coins (Guineas and Gothic Crowns mainly) and rode roughshod over everybody for the bags of lower grade silver that often contain one or two scarce/high grade pieces.

There probably isn't a single main reason for the high prices in salerooms and I have probably missed a couple of reasons from my explanation, but the high saleroom prices will affect us all for quite a while to come yet I think.

Edited March 31, 2012 by argentumandcoins

[Red Riley 2]

It is probably a combination of all the things mentioned topped by a few very rich individuals who know nothing but have money burning a hole. They will of course be advised by others who claim to be experts and see a percentage in it for them.

Being a boring old git I remember the same thing happening in the classic car market in the late 80s, the prices of Astons and Ferraris went through the roof and inevitably crashed spectacularly a couple of years later. Famously, Lord Brockett tried to recoup his money by torching the lot and claiming the insurance. He was however found out and spent some time at Her Majesty's Pleasure. Meanwhile, us lowly Riley owners were scarcely touched by it all, a Grade 1 RME being catalogued at £3,600 before and after the shenanigans.

The moral is I guess, stay away from the top end of the market until those with a surfeit of cash over brains have come a cropper. At that point there should be a few bargains to be had even if a few prime specimens will have mysteriously melted in a fire.

[azda 973]

So, are the dealers amoungst us finding it harder to pick up decent stuff at reasonable prices, IE: the bread and butter coins, what you'd sell on a weekly basis perhaps?

[numismatist 2]

One factor in the high end Dealer buying and selling is the pretty

universal added 24% added Buyers Premium. I dont know exactely what

goes on in the Coin trade, but certainly in the Antique Trade and in

some of the Medal trade, the Buyers Premium is highly negotiable and

can be down to 10% to the high paying top end dealers who can also

enjoy a 0% sellers premium, or even a minus -5% Sellers premium, thus

getting say £1050.00 for a Coin thats sells in Auction for £1000.00.

So there are many swings and round-abouts involved !

[TomGoodheart 373]

It is probably a combination of all the things mentioned topped by a few very rich individuals who know nothing but have money burning a hole. They will of course be advised by others who claim to be experts and see a percentage in it for them.

Being a boring old git I remember the same thing happening in the classic car market in the late 80s, the prices of Astons and Ferraris went through the roof and inevitably crashed spectacularly a couple of years later. Famously, Lord Brockett tried to recoup his money by torching the lot and claiming the insurance. He was however found out and spent some time at Her Majesty's Pleasure. Meanwhile, us lowly Riley owners were scarcely touched by it all, a Grade 1 RME being catalogued at £3,600 before and after the shenanigans.

The moral is I guess, stay away from the top end of the market until those with a surfeit of cash over brains have come a cropper. At that point there should be a few bargains to be had even if a few prime specimens will have mysteriously melted in a fire.

Auctions aside, I and a few others have noticed coins going for what would have been considered, at least a year or two ago, ridiculous amounts. More worryingly, these pieces were gone from dealers' lists almost as soon as they appeared.

Clearly nobody is going to discuss their customers in detail so it's impossible to know if there are just one or two newcomers picking up these coins or whether there is an actual market demand.

I also don't know whether the buyers paid the asking price or not. However it feels as if it will be a while before the buyers of those coins will recoup what they paid. And if there's a downturn ...

Edited March 31, 2012 by TomGoodheart

[Rob 3,002]

You mean things like this?

[Coinery 926]

I'm wondering whether British coins are now being collected more widely, internationally that is? Around 75% of what I'm selling has gone to the US, Aus, Hong Kong, even Taiwan. The last five coins over £1K that I've sold, gothic crown, anne gold, charles crown, etc, all went overseas. How many of us are buying from overseas? Is the UK pot getting smaller? Also, whilst I don't actually know this, as I neither follow, nor understand, the complexities of the world economy, but are people buying from abroad at 'regular' prices for them, when taking the exchange rate into account, leaving the UK buyers paying with GBP with nothing but saliva dribbling down his chin?

[TomGoodheart 373]

You mean things like this?

LOL No, I was thinking of just regular coins (Charles I shillings of course) in decent condition. No obvious provenance and while good, certainly not exceptional, with asking prices 50% to double what I would expect. A coin that sold in DNW's November auction for £180 now listed at £325 for example.

[Rob 3,002]

I'm wondering whether British coins are now being collected more widely, internationally that is? Around 75% of what I'm selling has gone to the US, Aus, Hong Kong, even Taiwan. The last five coins over £1K that I've sold, gothic crown, anne gold, charles crown, etc, all went overseas. How many of us are buying from overseas? Is the UK pot getting smaller? Also, whilst I don't actually know this, as I neither follow, nor understand, the complexities of the world economy, but are people buying from abroad at 'regular' prices for them, when taking the exchange rate into account, leaving the UK buyers paying with GBP with nothing but saliva dribbling down his chin?

It isn't as clear cut as you might think. Americans view our coins as cheap. That's why a 1901 1d sold for $600 in a US saleroom - finest known, i.e.highest graded equals worth paying megabucks. This country is not unreasonably the largest source of British coins, which means that any overseas interest will look to these shores when trying to buy the series. The internet has unquestionaly made buying easier for a worldwide customer base, but the real driver of prices will ultimately be the same old boring supply and demand. The finite numbers of coins available are augmented daily by detector finds, but the old cabinet toned rarities that have been sought ever since collectors existed are the real prize. There are now a lot more people chasing the limited numbers available, and we can't all have one. A few very wealthy individuals will pick up more than the likes of me and you, but it is only a relative thing. Even the less affluent collector can win something he or she desires if he is prepared to push the boat out, even if only on a very occasional basis. It was ever the same with a clear pecking order amongst collectors even back into the 19th century.

Looking from the other side though, more than one person on this forum has spent quite a bit in CNG sales or from their shop, so it isn't all one way. The exchange rate has been quite stable for a while and so currency volatility isn't really an issue. It has been in the past and will be again in the future, but the climate is benign at the moment. There is a ready supply of money from both sides of the Atlantic for the right pieces, and both sides will compete on fairly equal terms.

[Accumulator 52]

It is probably a combination of all the things mentioned topped by a few very rich individuals who know nothing but have money burning a hole. They will of course be advised by others who claim to be experts and see a percentage in it for them.

Being a boring old git I remember the same thing happening in the classic car market in the late 80s, the prices of Astons and Ferraris went through the roof and inevitably crashed spectacularly a couple of years later. Famously, Lord Brockett tried to recoup his money by torching the lot and claiming the insurance. He was however found out and spent some time at Her Majesty's Pleasure. Meanwhile, us lowly Riley owners were scarcely touched by it all, a Grade 1 RME being catalogued at £3,600 before and after the shenanigans.

The moral is I guess, stay away from the top end of the market until those with a surfeit of cash over brains have come a cropper. At that point there should be a few bargains to be had even if a few prime specimens will have mysteriously melted in a fire.

Now I understand the 'Red Riley' moniker, Derek. Luckily I bought into a classic, from one of the brands you mentioned, at the bottom of the market in the early 2000's. Mine's also red and not been a bad investment despite the heavy annual service costs though, as I only drive it on the odd sunny Sunday, the cost per mile is something I don't want to know! There must be a few classic car owners amongst us?

Edited March 31, 2012 by Accumulator

[Peckris 579]

It is probably a combination of all the things mentioned topped by a few very rich individuals who know nothing but have money burning a hole. They will of course be advised by others who claim to be experts and see a percentage in it for them.

Being a boring old git I remember the same thing happening in the classic car market in the late 80s, the prices of Astons and Ferraris went through the roof and inevitably crashed spectacularly a couple of years later. Famously, Lord Brockett tried to recoup his money by torching the lot and claiming the insurance. He was however found out and spent some time at Her Majesty's Pleasure. Meanwhile, us lowly Riley owners were scarcely touched by it all, a Grade 1 RME being catalogued at £3,600 before and after the shenanigans.

The moral is I guess, stay away from the top end of the market until those with a surfeit of cash over brains have come a cropper. At that point there should be a few bargains to be had even if a few prime specimens will have mysteriously melted in a fire.

Now I understand the 'Red Riley' moniker, Derek. Luckily I bought into a classic, from one of the brands you mentioned, at the bottom of the market in the early 2000's. Mine's also red and not been a bad investment despite the heavy annual service costs though, as I only drive it on the odd sunny Sunday, the cost per mile is something I don't want to know! There must be a few classic car owners amongst us?

I became a Triumphophile for a while. I had a 1200 Herald saloon (two-tone green), a 13/60 white Herald convertible, and a 1500 Mk IV Spitfire. My one and only mechanical claim to fame was rebuilding a 13/60 engine around a rebored crankshaft using a Haynes manual. Well, I did it once - why ever do it again? I would have liked a TR6 and a Stag, but those were out of reach.