"Rare" and "Scarce"

[Guest reluctant_numismatist]

Is there any consensus as to what "Rare" and "Scarce" mean in the numismatic world?

You see the words constantly bandied about on eBay for coins that patently aren't, and so are probably best taken with a massive pinch of salt, but I've noticed one mainstream dealer uses the terms in ways I would class as questionable (but then I had same opinion of said dealer from my banknote collecting days when a certain note dating from 1914 and easily found in UNC if you took the effort to look at a few dealer lists was described as being "difficult to find in this grade.")

Is there a hard and fast and/or measurable rule as to just what "Scarce" and "Rare" actually mean? Would you challenge a dealer on a coins' description (other than grade, which is probably a given) and therefore probably the price, if you disagreed with it?

[scott 129]

i dont, my dealer uses books to get the minting figues, so if its listed as scarce/rare then it is, unless the book doesnt list the veriaty of course then you can get lucky.

[Rob 3,002]

Scarce, rare, extremely rare and excessively rare are somewhat nebulous qualities.

Excessively rare usually means only one or two known, or at least in that grade if qualified as such. With a caveat, extremely rare will mean a handful known, very rare we are getting into double figures and scarce means that there are a decent number available, though not necessarily at that point in time. It will vary from issue to issue depending on how many people collect a series.

Clearly a coin which is in absolute terms relatively plentiful, say hundreds known, will be common, but if the demand is such that collectors hold onto them, very few pieces come to market and so it becomes rare in colloquial terms if not in definition. Conversely, a coin may be known from only a dozen examples, but if the number of collectors is limited to half a dozen then the coin is common because the dealer will have difficulty in disposing of it and one will always be available.

Usually, a rarity will frequently only be applicable to coins in a decent grade and by virtue of such collectable. It is the quality that will in all probability determine the rarity attribution, particularly in reference books. A good example is ESC which if the numbers are to be believed would imply such a limited quantity of known examples that obtaining one would be impossible, but new pieces are always coming to light and so nearly all unattested rarity attributions are liable to be revised downwards.

Rarity attributions are most accurate for proofs and patterns where the coins were never (or rarely) circulated and so the original totals are a good indication of available examples. Currency coins were circulated, withdrawn, hoarded, melted, lost & found etc. This results in an estimate for rarity which is invariably inaccurate because it is impossible to do a proper census.

Edited January 28, 2010 by Rob

[Peckris 579]

Is there any consensus as to what "Rare" and "Scarce" mean in the numismatic world?

You see the words constantly bandied about on eBay for coins that patently aren't, and so are probably best taken with a massive pinch of salt, but I've noticed one mainstream dealer uses the terms in ways I would class as questionable (but then I had same opinion of said dealer from my banknote collecting days when a certain note dating from 1914 and easily found in UNC if you took the effort to look at a few dealer lists was described as being "difficult to find in this grade.")

Is there a hard and fast and/or measurable rule as to just what "Scarce" and "Rare" actually mean? Would you challenge a dealer on a coins' description (other than grade, which is probably a given) and therefore probably the price, if you disagreed with it?

Rob's reply shows just how subjective this issue is. Though one thing we'd all agree on at the outset : you can forget what sellers on eBay say (I think you already have those sussed out!)

I would personally say that a coin that numbers in the hundreds, is very rare. So might the average collector, trying to chase down a 1934 Crown (hundreds minted). There are so many imponderables, it isn't true:

1. Popularity : a 1919KN penny is scarce only really, but is highly popular, so could be advertised as "rare"

2. Comparative mintages : a 1940 "single exergue line" penny is common, but accounts for only 1 in 20 of the usual, and even scarcer in BU; it is therefore comparatively rare only; similarly with 1957 "calm sea" halfpennies.

3. Condition : some common coins become genuinely scarce in BU (1954 halfcrowns) or rare (most Edward VII halfcrowns). Some scarce coins (1926ME pennies) are unimaginably rare in BU, likewise Cartwheel twopences.

4. Varieties : range from barely scarce (1902LT pennies) to incredibly rare (1862 pennies with die numbers) - popularity generally determines how the rarity level will be described

That's only scratching the surface. As far as challenging dealers is concerned, you'd be hard put to find valid grounds, for the reason that "rarity" is subjective and you couldn't build a legal case on it. Only if the rarity description implied it was a variety which it turned out not to be (for example "rare variety of 1926 penny", when it wasn't an ME), might you have a case. I'd judge a coin sale on precise identification, condition, appearance, and price. General description wouldn't move me one jot.

[azda 973]

Is there any consensus as to what "Rare" and "Scarce" mean in the numismatic world?

You see the words constantly bandied about on eBay for coins that patently aren't, and so are probably best taken with a massive pinch of salt, but I've noticed one mainstream dealer uses the terms in ways I would class as questionable (but then I had same opinion of said dealer from my banknote collecting days when a certain note dating from 1914 and easily found in UNC if you took the effort to look at a few dealer lists was described as being "difficult to find in this grade.")

Is there a hard and fast and/or measurable rule as to just what "Scarce" and "Rare" actually mean? Would you challenge a dealer on a coins' description (other than grade, which is probably a given) and therefore probably the price, if you disagreed with it?

Rob's reply shows just how subjective this issue is. Though one thing we'd all agree on at the outset : you can forget what sellers on eBay say (I think you already have those sussed out!)

I would personally say that a coin that numbers in the hundreds, is very rare. So might the average collector, trying to chase down a 1934 Crown (hundreds minted). There are so many imponderables, it isn't true:

1. Popularity : a 1919KN penny is scarce only really, but is highly popular, so could be advertised as "rare"

2. Comparative mintages : a 1940 "single exergue line" penny is common, but accounts for only 1 in 20 of the usual, and even scarcer in BU; it is therefore comparatively rare only; similarly with 1957 "calm sea" halfpennies.

3. Condition : some common coins become genuinely scarce in BU (1954 halfcrowns) or rare (most Edward VII halfcrowns). Some scarce coins (1926ME pennies) are unimaginably rare in BU, likewise Cartwheel twopences.

4. Varieties : range from barely scarce (1902LT pennies) to incredibly rare (1862 pennies with die numbers) - popularity generally determines how the rarity level will be described

That's only scratching the surface. As far as challenging dealers is concerned, you'd be hard put to find valid grounds, for the reason that "rarity" is subjective and you couldn't build a legal case on it. Only if the rarity description implied it was a variety which it turned out not to be (for example "rare variety of 1926 penny", when it wasn't an ME), might you have a case. I'd judge a coin sale on precise identification, condition, appearance, and price. General description wouldn't move me one jot.

Maybe we could open up a new thread and start listing scarce or rare varities types that we could look out for?

[Guest reluctant_numismatist]

Thanks for the replies, very interesting points. Obviously supply and demand applies, so the worth of any given coin is the intrinsic value of the metal it's made of, plus a "collectability premium" of several variables including grade, perceived or actual scarcity and desirability - effectively defined by what the collectors in the market are willing to pay.

Rob, the comment you made about proofs and patterns is particularly interesting; I picked up a pile of proofs where the average cost per coin was 30p. The desciption said "scarce" to which I thought yeah, right, but numerically speaking that could be true if there were x thousand struck against say a million for the equivalent circulation coin. So yes, numerically it is scarcer. However, of those x thousand, 99% of them are still probably knocking about at BU grade and the potential market of collectors is probably smaller. So a more accurate description would probably have been "Scarce, but common as muck and unloved, therefore cheaper than chips." All this is irrelevant to me however as I bought them as they were shiny and pretty and thereby appealing to my magpie-like collecting instincts.

"What is it worth?" is also interesting. I bought a pattern (only 700 struck apparently) for £14 and was well chuffed when I found the same coin on a dealers' list for £29.50. So what it is it worth? What I paid, or what the dealer wants? Actually I suppose it could be worth, nothing. If there are only 500 collectors to whom this would appeal and they've all got one, then nobody is going to be willing to pay anything for the 200 left over. Again, I'm not bothered as to worth as I think I'm still ahead on points as I have yet another shiny, pretty object for my collection, whereas the dealer is still sitting on a coin and waiting for his ROI.

Incidentally I am going to have to throttle back my aquisitive frenzy for a while as Mrs Reluctant has noticed an increasing number of small brown envelopes arriving through the post at the Reluctant household, and is starting to ask akward questions...

[Rob 3,002]

Thanks for the replies, very interesting points. Obviously supply and demand applies, so the worth of any given coin is the intrinsic value of the metal it's made of, plus a "collectability premium" of several variables including grade, perceived or actual scarcity and desirability - effectively defined by what the collectors in the market are willing to pay.

Rob, the comment you made about proofs and patterns is particularly interesting; I picked up a pile of proofs where the average cost per coin was 30p. The desciption said "scarce" to which I thought yeah, right, but numerically speaking that could be true if there were x thousand struck against say a million for the equivalent circulation coin. So yes, numerically it is scarcer. However, of those x thousand, 99% of them are still probably knocking about at BU grade and the potential market of collectors is probably smaller. So a more accurate description would probably have been "Scarce, but common as muck and unloved, therefore cheaper than chips." All this is irrelevant to me however as I bought them as they were shiny and pretty and thereby appealing to my magpie-like collecting instincts.

"What is it worth?" is also interesting. I bought a pattern (only 700 struck apparently) for £14 and was well chuffed when I found the same coin on a dealers' list for £29.50. So what it is it worth? What I paid, or what the dealer wants? Actually I suppose it could be worth, nothing. If there are only 500 collectors to whom this would appeal and they've all got one, then nobody is going to be willing to pay anything for the 200 left over. Again, I'm not bothered as to worth as I think I'm still ahead on points as I have yet another shiny, pretty object for my collection, whereas the dealer is still sitting on a coin and waiting for his ROI.

Incidentally I am going to have to throttle back my aquisitive frenzy for a while as Mrs Reluctant has noticed an increasing number of small brown envelopes arriving through the post at the Reluctant household, and is starting to ask akward questions...

Scarce in terms of proof and patterns apart from those issued for the general public means perhaps 2 or 3 dozen known whereas extremely rare means less than half a dozen. It is dependant on a large extent to the number of examples in museums which by definition are off limits. If there are 12 known and 8 or 9 are in museums, the 3 or 4 available examples become extremely rare, with a quality piece maybe excessively rare.

Mrs Reluctant, Mrs Rob, Mrs Peter and probably Mrs everone else seem to worry about the number of coins arriving. A common problem, so ignore it. Be happy, she is still paying attention to what you do. I explain that there are still gaps to fill in the cabinet she bought me. And when that is full I have solved the problem of the next Christmas present. :D

Edited January 29, 2010 by Rob

[Red Riley 2]

Incidentally I am going to have to throttle back my aquisitive frenzy for a while as Mrs Reluctant has noticed an increasing number of small brown envelopes arriving through the post at the Reluctant household, and is starting to ask akward questions...

You could always try having a mad and passionate affair with your secretary (or anyone else's for that matter). That would divert her attention and, trust me, she just wouldn't notice those little brown envelopes anymore!

[Gary D 76]

Incidentally I am going to have to throttle back my aquisitive frenzy for a while as Mrs Reluctant has noticed an increasing number of small brown envelopes arriving through the post at the Reluctant household, and is starting to ask akward questions...

You could always try having a mad and passionate affair with your secretary (or anyone else's for that matter). That would divert her attention and, trust me, she just wouldn't notice those little brown envelopes anymore!

I have my many little brown envelopes delivered to work. Mrs D is still suspicious

[Guest reluctant_numismatist]

I have my many little brown envelopes delivered to work. Mrs D is still suspicious

LOL I used to do that when collecting banknotes until they decided that the post room would open and check all incoming mail even if marked personal or private, but at least I wasn't having a subscription to a "specialist adult interest" magazine delivered to the office like one senior manager...

[Sylvester 15]

This is an interesting discussion because as noted demand is everything.

Take the 1934 crown (around 900 were struck) and because of their high demand they will cost you several thousand each. Take 1737 half guineas, about 10 survive and yet they're a few hundred cheaper.

One is truly rarer than the other but collector demand makes the difference.

[DaveG38 385]

Incidentally I am going to have to throttle back my aquisitive frenzy for a while as Mrs Reluctant has noticed an increasing number of small brown envelopes arriving through the post at the Reluctant household, and is starting to ask akward questions...

You could always try having a mad and passionate affair with your secretary (or anyone else's for that matter). That would divert her attention and, trust me, she just wouldn't notice those little brown envelopes anymore!

I have my many little brown envelopes delivered to work. Mrs D is still suspicious

I'm afraid that I have the opposite problem. Mrs G has crap, sorry goods, flying through the letter box from every fashion house you can think of, so much so that she is keen for me to spend more, in order to redress the balance! I'm going for a new stereo shortly, a rather nice telescope and a bloody expensive Yamaha synthesiser and she's disappointed that it all come to less than £4k.

[Coin_Hunter 0]

Scarce is more common than rare. A rare coin has to be taken seriously, scarce merely implies they are hard to find now. So a scarce coin, may exist in a low number of thousands but is well sough after, or in the hundreds but less sought after. A rare coin, should only exist in the hundreds at most, and possibly only in the dozens. Rare coins ought to always command prices in the hundreds unless there isn't much interest in the area.

[Peckris 579]

Scarce is more common than rare. A rare coin has to be taken seriously, scarce merely implies they are hard to find now. So a scarce coin, may exist in a low number of thousands but is well sough after, or in the hundreds but less sought after. A rare coin, should only exist in the hundreds at most, and possibly only in the dozens. Rare coins ought to always command prices in the hundreds unless there isn't much interest in the area.

Well, that's certainly not the official line! Freeman had 20 levels of rarity ranging from the barely scarce to the unique. And even the "professional" scale, which runs from R to R7, doesn't rate R as particularly rare.

Rarity is a comparative term, not an official one. A 1954 florin in BU is very hard to find, but it's only "rare" by comparison with e.g. the 1967 florin. All George V Wreath Crowns are rare, but 1928 Crowns often come up in sales, so many dealers would rate it as scarce only, especially in comparison to the 1934. It all depends where you're looking from.

[Coin_Hunter 0]

Freeman, hmmm...isn't that just one of those cheap yank prouductions?..

[scott 129]

freeman is british though i thought?

americans know nothing, they call simple die errors varietys on thier coins..

[Red Riley 2]

freeman is british though i thought?

americans know nothing, they call simple die errors varietys on thier coins..

Look, I don't think posting such things is a good idea. There are plenty of American members of this forum and many of them are extremely knowledgeable. I know it may have been thoughtless rather than malicious on your part, but perhaps you ought to think a little before making such comments. Some people may well take offence.

[RLC35 288]

Thanks Derek, Nicely put. BTW Scott...you are correct about Michael Freeman, he is British.

[scott 129]

i dont mean it like that, i was saying americans know nothing of our system of varietys.

i have used american sites for my american pieces, its just rediculous wading through 50-60 variatys of one cent because of small die errors.

[1949threepence 3,366]

Scarce is more common than rare. A rare coin has to be taken seriously, scarce merely implies they are hard to find now. So a scarce coin, may exist in a low number of thousands but is well sough after, or in the hundreds but less sought after. A rare coin, should only exist in the hundreds at most, and possibly only in the dozens. Rare coins ought to always command prices in the hundreds unless there isn't much interest in the area.

That's always been my understanding as well.

A phrase I'm seeing more and more regularly these days is, "rare/scarce in this grade", which is very true. It's often comparatively easy to get lower grade coins of a given year, even up to NEF, but incredibly difficult to get a true BU example. Peckris referred to the 1926 ME penny, which is a very obvious example (probably along with the 1918 & 1919KN), and my own recent collecting has placed both the 1921 & 1930 BU shillings, firmly into such a sliding scale category.

[RobJ 0]

I am sorry to revive this old Topic, but I was going to Post a Topic on a very similar subject but thought it needless as this one already existed.

I have found reading it most interesting and insightful.

I was speaking to a Dealer friend of mine very recently on this exact subject. He was telling me that certain coins, as already discussed here, are genuinely rare, some are genuinely scarce and others which are believed to be rare or scarce simply are not at all.

He also mentioned, as also discussed here, that certain coins are only rare or scarce in the very highest Grades, where as the same coin in a lower Grade is not considered rare or scarce at all.

Something that I did find most interesting was the issue of Mintages. He was telling me that most of them should be ignored entirely, as it is one thing to state the known Mintages but another to know exactly how many of each Denomination with a known Mintage actually survive.

He was telling me about how at certain stages during the past Century that hoards of coins had been melted down (In some cases, the metal had been reused to create new coins.) During the War Years and after Decimilisation being the more obvious times that he stated. Thus leaving the known Mintage figures practically useless.

Also taking into account the recent rise in Silver prices (Around 35x face value for Pre 1920 Silver apparantly.) He was wondering just how many coins now were being 'Scrapped' for their Silver content, thus taking out of the market many coins that up until now had been considered common, and thus actually making the ones that remain scacer in the lower Grades and rarer on the higher Grades.

I found it all most interesting.

[argentumandcoins 70]

Mintage figures were never taken as a given on any date pre Elizabeth II as they only reflect the number of coins issued in that year. The issue number could include coins dated a year either side of the actual date.

As for the silver price I wouldn't worry about it. During the last silver hyper inflation of the 70's there were some dealers who were apparently shipping container loads of coins and antique silver to the smelters. I have heard tales of any and everything going in (gothic florins, Ed VII halfcrowns etc). There is such a massive amount remaining that I don't think availability levels will be hit. I visited a caller last week who was disposing of her deceased husbands estate and he had hoarded 2Kgs of lower grade silver (yes I'm selling in bulk) as well as 25 1986 and 1989 £2 coins, £'s of current decimal coinage, some Georgian Copper, the odd bit of Viccy silver, copper and bronze and heaps of mid-late 20th century stuff. This will no doubt be repeated tens thousands of times over across the country, meaning that there will still be oceans of lower grade in existence.

[Gary D 76]

Mintage figures were never taken as a given on any date pre Elizabeth II as they only reflect the number of coins issued in that year. The issue number could include coins dated a year either side of the actual date.

As for the silver price I wouldn't worry about it. During the last silver hyper inflation of the 70's there were some dealers who were apparently shipping container loads of coins and antique silver to the smelters. I have heard tales of any and everything going in (gothic florins, Ed VII halfcrowns etc). There is such a massive amount remaining that I don't think availability levels will be hit. I visited a caller last week who was disposing of her deceased husbands estate and he had hoarded 2Kgs of lower grade silver (yes I'm selling in bulk) as well as 25 1986 and 1989 £2 coins, £'s of current decimal coinage, some Georgian Copper, the odd bit of Viccy silver, copper and bronze and heaps of mid-late 20th century stuff. This will no doubt be repeated tens thousands of times over across the country, meaning that there will still be oceans of lower grade in existence.

Prehaps ebay should make a ruling that any coin after the second time though should go for melt, it's about time a lot of the very low grade stuff was cleared out.

[TomGoodheart 373]

There's some details of the main 'rarity scales' here on Wiki. Rarity Factor

But as everyone says, there's a subjectivity to rarity, particularly in relation to price. Some coins, there's only one or two known. But they aren't that popular or perhaps well known and so don't command a particularly high price. Whereas others are common enough (several hundred around at least) but they go for daft prices.

As for mintage, well you can find out how many coins were produced for many issues. Even late hammered. But that doesn't guarantee how many now exist because we don't know how many survived the recoinages of 1696 and 1816. And when something is extremely rare, a hoard or similar find can double the number of known examples overnight!

Rare to me is something I've never seen before.

Oh, and as a diversion (but sort of related) with late hammered my guestimate is that if there was one single die for a coin you are unlikely to find many more than a dozen examples. Two dies, 24. Anything where less than 10 examples are known is rare to my mind. Less than 20, very scarce. Less than 30, scarce. None to precise I accept, but this is simply a personal rule of thumb I use (as part of my deliberations) when considering whether to part with the hard earned pennies!

[Rob 3,002]

Oh, and as a diversion (but sort of related) with late hammered my guestimate is that if there was one single die for a coin you are unlikely to find many more than a dozen examples. Two dies, 24. Anything where less than 10 examples are known is rare to my mind. Less than 20, very scarce. Less than 30, scarce. None to precise I accept, but this is simply a personal rule of thumb I use (as part of my deliberations) when considering whether to part with the hard earned pennies!

At this point it is probably worth putting some flesh on the bones of a real example. Recently I compiled a list of illustrated Exeter & Truro crowns in order to identify which dies were common or not and which examples were worth acquiring. There is a large variation in the numbers of particular die combinations. The Besly numbers are used for each die combination. There are 4 obverse dies and 31 reverses. Quick pointers are that A1 is the Truro, B2 is the 12 scroll reverse Exeter, C3-7 the undated Exeters, C8 the 1644 date divided by mark, C9-15 the 1644 left of mark, C16&17 Rose/Ex, D16&17 Tower/Ex, D18 Tower/Rose 1645, D19-31 1645 Tower mark.

The numbers are for identifiably different examples. Not included are those in museums or specific references which identify the variety but without illustration or corroborative provenance. In the case of readily identifiable varieties the numbers below have considerable but unquantifiable scope for upwards revision.

A1 102

B2 10

C3-21, C4-11, C5-7, C6-14, C7-8, C7a-4 (not recorded by Besly). Total 65

C8-12

C9-15, C10-2, C11-16, C12-5, C13-11, C14-18, C15-7. Total 76

C16-12, C17-4. Total 16

D16-8, D17-14. Total 22

D18-7.

D19-7, D20-18, D21-16, D22-16, D23-7, D24-8, D25-5, D26-7, D27-7, D28 doesn't exist, D29-10, D30-9, D31-6. Total 116.

As you can see, some die combinations are out and out rare, whilst some are in reality very common. It goes without saying that all would be described on ebay as rare, but with over 100 Truros and 1645 tower mark Exeters available to collectors this is clearly not the case. At the individual die combination level and at the other end of the scale is the C10. Cooper had a fairly dire example and was the only one recorded by Besly. The other is virtually as struck and was in the Rowley Butters collection sold at St. James's a couple of years ago - that's rare. The problem is that rare, scarce, common or whatever are used indiscriminately by buyers and sellers as a negotiating feature rather than being based on evidence.

I would be interested to know who would have considered which types to be rare and which ones common based simply on the readily available info in references and from personal obvservation. What guesses would have been hazarded based on intuition? As most rarity attributions seem to be based on perception - honest answers only please.