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Rob

Is the market out of control?

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Am I the only one or does anyone else think the market is getting just a tad overheated? At Baldwins a month ago, things were going for twice or three times what you would expect them to. At London Coins last Sunday the plumes 1671 shilling sold for £3800 and was just EF in my opinion, not gEF as described. Victorian 3d's selling for £500 isn't right either. A 1696N 1/- in EF or marginally better sells for £1400 (Spink price EF - £600), 1874 halfpennies opening at £700 (excl. premiums). Either bidders are taking a leaf out of my avatar or I've lost the plot completely. Discuss.

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I agree it sounds like there are some high prices being paid at late. Just out of interest which Victorian 3d's are selling for £500?

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I agree it sounds like there are some high prices being paid at late. Just out of interest which Victorian 3d's are selling for £500?

The 1852 sold for £480, the 1853 sold for £580 excl. prem.

The problem I had was that so many pieces just weren't good enough. Many were cleaned or dipped and inevitably overgraded. I had a list of 300 which I looked at and that rapidly dropped to two dozen which I considered good enough to bid on. Of these, the vast majority opened at way above book price. I ended up with only 4 lots and only bid on 8 in total despite the fact I was prepared to exceed book price to some extent.

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I wonder if there is a sudden boom in coin collecting as a means of investment. I know the gold and silver prices are high due to countries like China and India's economic growth. People from these country's are choosing to invest their new found wealth into buying gold and silver. I wonder if the same is happening to the coin market or if it is possibly a knock on effect?

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Perhaps I should study the Auctions more but unfortunatly with a young family I haven't the disposable income.

The dealers lists I receive however have shown a marked increase for anything reasonably interesting.

(and a distinct lack of anything interesting)

My purchases have been from ploughing through Ebay (which is sometimes like pulling teeth due to the dross and prats).

I'm going to try a couple of the monthly fairs over the summer.... most likely my disposable income is going to stay in my wallet until I can locate that must have piece at any price.

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Perhaps I should study the Auctions more but unfortunatly with a young family I haven't the disposable income.

The dealers lists I receive however have shown a marked increase for anything reasonably interesting.

(and a distinct lack of anything interesting)

My purchases have been from ploughing through Ebay (which is sometimes like pulling teeth due to the dross and prats).

I'm going to try a couple of the monthly fairs over the summer.... most likely my disposable income is going to stay in my wallet until I can locate that must have piece at any price.

The bit in brackets is significant. There are virtually no top grade pieces available to buy. The high prices are being paid for not particularly good examples and are certainly not being bought with a view to collectability when the market is soft. It's a bit like this, i.e. it must be good coz somone's started it at £100. You can't see a picture, and I'm convinced that many people aren't looking at the coin with a critical eye. Ebay bidders have hit the road! Maybe I should be looking to sell up and start again when the prices soften.

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Its got to be shill bidding.

A couple of complete novices ...although the vendor has bought some quality optical products ;)

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I can't help wondering if increased demands overseas for British coins might be pushing the market up somewhat?

I know the US coin market has priced alot of collectors right out of it and thus a significant number have turned their attention to cheaper fields such as the World coin market. Britain is one of the favourites and i presume it's only a matter of time before an increased demand over there see's coins migrating over to the States and leading to a reduced supply over here.

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It's not just the investment market that's going crazy. The Hammered Edwards in poor/fair condition are going for the prices paid for VF and better just a year ago. It can only be a surge in numismatism or more probably, just collecting. Have there been any TV programmes on the subject? That usually sparks extra interest in any subject! Remember the Art Challenge? There were hundreds of people walking around with pads, pencils, paints and easles for a few months. <_<

Edited by Geordie582

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I can't help wondering if increased demands overseas for British coins might be pushing the market up somewhat?

I know the US coin market has priced alot of collectors right out of it and thus a significant number have turned their attention to cheaper fields such as the World coin market. Britain is one of the favourites and i presume it's only a matter of time before an increased demand over there see's coins migrating over to the States and leading to a reduced supply over here.

A dealer who I won't name was complaining bitterly the other day about Americans pushing prices up over here. If they think the coin will go MS64 or better, the price will be driven by American demand and not grade. The problem of course is that US grading puts an MS grade on most things if they are EF or better. And if it doesn't get the grade you want first time around, send it back until the grading company agrees with your assessment. :angry:

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Guest English Coin Fanatic

I don't find the price of some of the coins now receiving attention to be that high. I would very much like to have a mint state currency 1853 3d even at the posted price and am a little envious of the buyer. Still prices are on the rise for high quality pieces in the later milled/Victorian series (phenom does not seem to stretch much into the 20th C. xpt for 1905's and the 1922/1927 hybrid penny & maybe the 1926 ME penny).

Really people may have to get used to parting with a bit more for the truly best bits and I would think they shall be on the rise for a while yet.

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I can't help wondering if increased demands overseas for British coins might be pushing the market up somewhat?

I know the US coin market has priced alot of collectors right out of it and thus a significant number have turned their attention to cheaper fields such as the World coin market. Britain is one of the favourites and i presume it's only a matter of time before an increased demand over there see's coins migrating over to the States and leading to a reduced supply over here.

A good observation, Sylverster. The overpriced US coin market has driven a lot of collectors, like myself, to look elsewhere. I wonder how big an impact this has had and will continue to have on the British coin market.

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I hate the way US collectors try and grade ie how many letters of liberty are still clear.

and putting coins into neat catagories....this to me seems impossible unless there are thousands of each grade.

Rant over.

My 1721 vf 1/4d is nicer than your 1721 vf 1/4d....I've never seen 2 the same or been rich enough to own them.

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Peter...The US grading firms pretend to make an exact science of something that really isn't one. A coin and its attributes are more than just a number. What we in the US have settled for is an overly pricise grading system that at the same time is inherently inaccurate. If you don't believe me, take a look at some of the coins that get into high grade mint state slabs. I much prefer your grading system -- yet another reason why I collect British coins.

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Thanks Coppers. I will only collect nice raw US.

I've got a few targets. :D

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My 1721 vf 1/4d is nicer than your 1721 vf 1/4d....I've never seen 2 the same or been rich enough to own them.

Peter, slightly off topic but....

Not being au fait with 1721 farthings, are they particularly rare and underpriced in Spink. A price of £100 or so for a VF coin doesn't suggest it is desperately difficult to acquire in this grade.

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Guest English Coin Fanatic

I think the center point of this discussion is whether or not prices are "superheated" and have exceded what has been previously considered reasonable. I do believe that there will be a series of adjustments and that likely our compatriots collecting may be shocked at what the readjusted values of particularly rare and or aesthetically pleasing and/or well preserved specimens may go for.

It seems that the demand side of the curve is growing, and pushed by possibly mutiple factors: flight of US collectors going into relatively bargain-priced coins, the overall bullion market, the collector market (witness the prices of paintings in recent years), the maturing of buyers who now have an increase in discretionary income, etc.

I am not at all confident that it is just a few buyers/investors who are driving the prices although I must admit there seem to be some strong players in terms of funds available. I also note that firms such as Baldwin& Noble are now pushing investment funds, a cycle that has been here in some forms before but one that may now have added credibility.

The question is, as people have asked, where and when will prices settle at least relatively?

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Rob

My point was that it is rare to get George 1 farthings which sit exactly on a grade....

I go for eye appeal everytime.

A 1721 farthing was used because its my favourite date...I do like George 1 copper. (I can still remember buying a 1721 at the age of 10 whilst on holiday in Bournmouth)

Regarding currency the 1721 1/4d has 8 varieties (listed in CC catalogue 37) 3 are designated Peck nrs.

I'm always on the look out for these.

Peter Ireland unwittingly sold a rare one on the net about a year ago,only 2 of us realised but I got out sniped....Grrrrr (I do have a lesser grade example though).

I usually ignore Spink when chasing varieties

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Q. David Bowers once wrote an article regarding exactly that...... Two coins, maybe a grade or so apart... the lower grade having more eye appeal.... He would go for the eye appeal every time... and I would tend to agree......

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Guest English Coin Fanatic
Q. David Bowers once wrote an article regarding exactly that...... Two coins, maybe a grade or so apart... the lower grade having more eye appeal.... He would go for the eye appeal every time... and I would tend to agree......

I tend to agree with Peter as if you know your coins, you will know what price to pay, and so may have to decide if that GEF 1893 Jubilee 6d is too much of a stretch for your pocketbook or just simply overpriced.

I am not sure if generalizations about Americans' collecting proclivities will generate much stimulating thought as I rather imagine that there are extremely sophisticated collectors there. I do think that encapsulated grading lends itself more to the investment-oriented but that it is not totally without merit. I believe it a viable option for the milled series (although something must be done to allow verification of milled varieties - perhaps as ANACS does with its new holders), and that we likely would have many more mint-fresh red coppers if these had been available in years past in that protection of the coins seems excellent.

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Really people may have to get used to parting with a bit more for the truly best bits and I would think they shall be on the rise for a while yet.

Historically, the best known has always commanded a serious premium to the rest and is likely to do so ad infinitum. I personally have always been willing to pay over book for the best or close to best piece available sometimes at prices at least twice book or more. The problem is the prices being paid for bits that are nowhere near the best which is the thought that started this thread. The not quite there pieces - say EF, are now drawing away from VF grades and creating a large gulf in prices for very little improvement in grade. This is where I think the market is likely to come unstuck and tears may well be shed when the time comes to cash in. At these lower grades of gVF - EF, eye appeal is probably the better option unless the piece is desperately rare anyway.

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Historically, the best known has always commanded a serious premium to the rest and is likely to do so ad infinitum. I personally have always been willing to pay over book for the best or close to best piece available sometimes at prices at least twice book or more. The problem is the prices being paid for bits that are nowhere near the best which is the thought that started this thread. The not quite there pieces - say EF, are now drawing away from VF grades and creating a large gulf in prices for very little improvement in grade. This is where I think the market is likely to come unstuck and tears may well be shed when the time comes to cash in. At these lower grades of gVF - EF, eye appeal is probably the better option unless the piece is desperately rare anyway.

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(arguably slab rare with the 70 grade)

I've seen the term "condition rarity" bandied about by Americans, instead of just the usual sort of rarity where there are few pieces.

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I've seen the term "condition rarity" bandied about by Americans, instead of just the usual sort of rarity where there are few pieces.

In any coin series there are certain dates and varieties that might be exceptionally rare in mint state (the 1827 penny for example). In the US, we've taken this concept of condition rarity to the extreme where we actually differentiate rarities based on eleven grades of mint state ranging from 60 to 70. There are even "population reports' on the numbers of each variety encapsulated at the various mint state grade levels (60 to 70) and many collectors and dealers religiously follow and rely on these reports to determine how "rare" a coin might be, for example, in MS-65 versus MS-64. So even a very common coin of which millions were struck and of which millions are known in mint state can be considered "rare" because very few have been awarded an MS-65 versus an MS-64. This is a purely artificial definition of rarity created to enrich the grading services and the dealers whom they serve. Oftimes many thousands of dollars are lost and gained on the basis of such nonsense.

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