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Interesting read ... but the absurd rise in plastic coffin UK coin prices has got to come down sooner or later. Perhaps the same will be true of Pokemon?

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7 minutes ago, Peckris 2 said:

Interesting read ... but the absurd rise in plastic coffin UK coin prices has got to come down sooner or later. Perhaps the same will be true of Pokemon?

Indeed, the Pokemon story is incredible in terms of an investment opportunity. One of those "right place, right time" and you're in luck, phenomenon.

You're spot on with slabbed coins. You can see this clearly illustrated with the 1937 Five pounds to half sovereign proof set. You could get a decent near FDC original set for somewhere around £17k. Split up and slabbed by NGC you're looking at twice that amount for the four. It's ridiculous.   

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3 hours ago, Master Jmd said:

Prices on Japanese cards - which were already greatly inflated from their 2019 values - now had significant interest from wealthy Japanese investors. That $102,800 card I mentioned earlier was a sale between a Japanese card shop and Japanese investor. It's one of 167 PSA 10 copies of the same card, and is a 3x increase in value since the beginning of the year.

Thanks for sharing, its interesting to see Pokemon talked about on here. It's been a wild ride since about 2020. I've collected sealed Japanese since 2015 and have been astounded by its growth and strength. The new boxes I bought at retail in 2015/16/17 have at worse, 10x, and up to about 40-60x for the better ones. As well as benefitting like everything from covid/Logan Paul/crypto, it has continued this year for me. About 8 months ago I sold a couple boxes for £750 and £1350, I sold them again recently for £1800 and £1650, next time the number will start with a 2.

Whats the $102k card you mention? I can only think think of some trophy cards that are in that price bracket.

There were some bad choices as well during that time. The topsun charizard was a rollercoaster. The same card rode up to about $450k and fell back to about $100k.

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I've a large bag of tulip bulbs in the shed. A grand a piece to anyone who wants some.

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54 minutes ago, Michael-Roo said:

 

I've a large bag of tulip bulbs in the shed. A grand a piece to anyone who wants some.

And I have two - Oh dear I feel a new south sea bubble coming on

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On 5/31/2023 at 8:20 PM, 1949threepence said:

So about 0.4% of all 1858's you recorded were large rose. I never imagined they were quite that scarce. Indeed, many of us have had it in mind that the small date large rose variety was considerably rarer than the large date, large rose. But from your findings, it's much nearer 50/50. 

Out of interest do you have figures for the 1854 no colons on reverse variety?

As ever thanks for such incredibly useful stats Ian.

 

On 5/31/2023 at 8:42 PM, alfnail said:

Hi Mike,

I was wondering whether you might ask about the 1854 No Colons Bramah 17a one day!

I'm afraid I haven't yet started on the 1854 analysis, partly because there are around 4,000 of those in my 5-year study; also, I was wondering what to attempt. Clearly the OT/PT split is relatively easy, but perhaps not that interesting. The OT no colons is clearly feasible, but I would also like to attempt the 1854/3. I'm thinking, however, that in the absence of a good additional identifier, I don't think the picture quality of most ebay listings will be detailed enough to allow me to do that one.

I will do the No Colons count at some point and post on the forum. Thanks for asking, it's good to get a bit of pressure to make me do it. 😣  

By the way, I have a spare copy of Bramah if anyone is interested, but it won't be for peanuts!

Also, without wishing to be cheeky, I would be very interested in any count you've done on the 1858 no serif on the first I of BRITANNIAR. Again, it's a coin which doesn't seem to be vanishingly rare, but equally doesn't crop up every 5 minutes.

Most seem to be unattributed no ww date only examples. Not too well known maybe. 

Sorry to be a nuisance Ian ;) 

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I can't afford one since putting all my money into phlogiston.

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Strike a light!

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9 hours ago, copper123 said:

And I have two - Oh dear I feel a new south sea bubble coming on

Gaviscon.

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1 hour ago, blakeyboy said:

Gaviscon.

Bisodol is far better.

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Imodium is good for the runs

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Sachin Tendulkar, surely?

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2 hours ago, blakeyboy said:

I can't afford one since putting all my money into phlogiston.

That must weigh heavy on your mind.

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1 hour ago, Michael-Roo said:

Sachin Tendulkar, surely?

How about Acker Bilk, which my Dad used to say sounded like some particularly unpleasant digestive complaint.

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23 hours ago, Lotad said:

Whats the $102k card you mention? I can only think think of some trophy cards that are in that price bracket.

It was a PSA 10 copy of a 397/SM-P Extra Battle Day Lillie. Back when I was contemplating buying a copy at $400 it was only believed that a maximum of 100 existed, but now it's generally believed there were probably more than 1,000 distributed, which makes the sale even more absurd.

The card was listed on Japanese store Card Rush's website and sold in 17 minutes for 17,800,000 JPY: https://www.cardrush-pokemon.jp/phone/product/38932. From what I've been told from a few people I know with decent connections in Japan, it was bought by a "popular Japanese investor", but I don't know any more details than that.

Nice to see someone collecting sealed Japanese product - one of the rarest items in my Pokémon collection is a Japanese 2001 Pokémon Center Company reprint Base Set booster pack. If you're on Instagram/Twitter I'd love to check out your collection. 😊

Edit: I've also just noticed that my post before mentioned that I was wanting to buy that Lillie in early 2019. The card didn't release until October/November 2019 so it would have actually been early 2020 I was interested. $400 to $102,800 in just over 3 years!

Edited by Master Jmd

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14 hours ago, Master Jmd said:

It was a PSA 10 copy of a 397/SM-P Extra Battle Day Lillie. Back when I was contemplating buying a copy at $400 it was only believed that a maximum of 100 existed, but now it's generally believed there were probably more than 1,000 distributed, which makes the sale even more absurd.

Every day was a Battle Day for Lillie (older members may understand this... :D)

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On 6/2/2023 at 6:58 PM, 1949threepence said:

 

Also, without wishing to be cheeky, I would be very interested in any count you've done on the 1858 no serif on the first I of BRITANNIAR. Again, it's a coin which doesn't seem to be vanishingly rare, but equally doesn't crop up every 5 minutes.

Most seem to be unattributed no ww date only examples. Not too well known maybe. 

Sorry to be a nuisance Ian ;) 

No worries Mike. I had already started on 1858, whilst counting the large roses.

Year 1 for 1858's has just over 400 coins, of which about 10% are No WW, and of those 2 are missing serifs. I haven't counted the other 4 years yet. 

I believe the missing serifs on the first I of BRITANNIAR only occurs when paired with a single obverse 'No WW' die (most examples have the same flaw after T of GRATIA).

Several years ago, I tested several B26a coins, which I had accumulated over the years, against the wording found on Page 108 of Bramah, as follows:- 

"Another prolific source of minor variation is provided by the colons on the rev. Probably every die creates a colon variant and the only really satisfactory way of describing the position identifiably is by measurement and by the rather delicate indication afforded by projecting the line of each colon and so cutting the inscription opposite".

Below is a picture of one of my B26a coins, with the projected lines as per Bramah. I tried to find the best pixel to identify the centre of each colon dot, and then drew a straight line through these centres to the opposite side of the coin. The teeth where the projected lines meet the opposite side are numbered (larger figures). Numbering starts from the tooth where the stem of the rose hits the border, and then works clockwise. The smaller numbers measure the distance between each pair of colon dots.

I found that all my pieces had very similar sets of numbers i.e. within a range of 3 border beads, so I think Bramah's theory does work quite well at identifying individual reverse dies.....if one has the time to do this!!!

Just thought that may be of some interest; I have reduced image size to meet the predecimal limit.  

 

Coin 3 rev2teethdot4Numberedx2 Pred.jpg

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On 6/2/2023 at 11:25 PM, 1949threepence said:

How about Acker Bilk, which my Dad used to say sounded like some particularly unpleasant digestive complaint.

I remember an Estonian decathlete called Erki Nool which to me sounded distinctly like a sports injury. :lol:

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2 hours ago, alfnail said:

No worries Mike. I had already started on 1858, whilst counting the large roses.

Year 1 for 1858's has just over 400 coins, of which about 10% are No WW, and of those 2 are missing serifs. I haven't counted the other 4 years yet. 

I believe the missing serifs on the first I of BRITANNIAR only occurs when paired with a single obverse 'No WW' die (most examples have the same flaw after T of GRATIA).

Several years ago, I tested several B26a coins, which I had accumulated over the years, against the wording found on Page 108 of Bramah, as follows:- 

"Another prolific source of minor variation is provided by the colons on the rev. Probably every die creates a colon variant and the only really satisfactory way of describing the position identifiably is by measurement and by the rather delicate indication afforded by projecting the line of each colon and so cutting the inscription opposite".

Below is a picture of one of my B26a coins, with the projected lines as per Bramah. I tried to find the best pixel to identify the centre of each colon dot, and then drew a straight line through these centres to the opposite side of the coin. The teeth where the projected lines meet the opposite side are numbered (larger figures). Numbering starts from the tooth where the stem of the rose hits the border, and then works clockwise. The smaller numbers measure the distance between each pair of colon dots.

I found that all my pieces had very similar sets of numbers i.e. within a range of 3 border beads, so I think Bramah's theory does work quite well at identifying individual reverse dies.....if one has the time to do this!!!

Just thought that may be of some interest; I have reduced image size to meet the predecimal limit.  

 

 

Thanks Ian. That's very interesting. I must admit I've seen and read those words in Bramah's book many times, without ever thinking too deeply about them. But they make perfect sense in terms of finding unique sets of dies for a given variety. As you suggest, probably only one reverse die for the 26a. 

Bramah doesn't mention the flaw after the T of GRATIA at page 4 of his book as far as the 1858 no WW pennies are concerned. Only 1859 and the recut 1860/59. But of course it's there on the majority, and definitely on the 26a.   

Edited by 1949threepence
words wrong way round

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A case in point regarding the ongoing rise in coin prices.

"The Coinery" are offering an 1839 proof penny at their auction of 29.7.23, with estimates of between £5,000 and £6,000, and a minimum starting bid of £4,000. The coin is NGC slabbed in a special "Coinery" holder, and is graded as PF66 BNlink 

I won an 1839 proof on 22.5.22, also from The Coinery for £3,700 hammer. But I had to fight for it, from the £2500 commission bid I'd left. Mine was also in a special NGC Coinery slab, but PF64 BN. 

So my theory is that yes, although almost certainly the difference between PF64 & PF66 makes a price difference, I wouldn't have thought it would account for such a sizeable difference. Much of the increase is surely due to overall price rises in coins.

Incidentally, any differences betwen this coin, and the one I got, are Rizla paper thin. In fact I'd venture that my reverse is superior to this one. There are marks (scratches) on the coin currently offered, although as with many slabbed coins, it's often difficult to determine whether the mark is on the coin itself, or externally on the plastic holder.  

1839 pennies are scarce generally, but rare in undisturbed, issue free, high grade. 

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Unfortunately the price difference in just a grade or two on most pennies determined by NGC are huge ,for the few collectors currently buying them.

The 1839 PF66 for sale in "The Coinery auction " sold for £10,000 the last time it sold and at the time it was the highest grade.

Now one is graded 67 (Maybe bought by the seller of this one) the one graded 66 has almost certainly lost its highest grade attraction.

Unfortunately its not what we think the grade is but what NGC put on the label and if its high or the highest , there are a few collectors who will pay big money for them.

Only my opinion but i have been watching the prices of NGC pennies for the last few years and ones graded really high or the highest can sell for daft money.

Fortunately its only a few buyers though who will pay these high prices and what it does mean is the ones graded high but not really high 😀 ,we can buy for sensible money.

 

Edited by PWA 1967

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59 minutes ago, PWA 1967 said:

Unfortunately the price difference in just a grade or two on most pennies determined by NGC are huge ,for the few collectors currently buying them.

The 1839 PF66 for sale in "The Coinery auction " sold for £10,000 the last time it sold and at the time it was the highest grade.

Now one is graded 67 (Maybe bought by the seller of this one) the one graded 66 has almost certainly lost its highest grade attraction.

Unfortunately its not what we think the grade is but what NGC put on the label and if its high or the highest , there are a few collectors who will pay big money for them.

Only my opinion but i have been watching the prices of NGC pennies for the last few years and ones graded really high or the highest can sell for daft money.

Fortunately its only a few buyers though who will pay these high prices and what it does mean is the ones graded high but not really high 😀 ,we can buy for sensible money.

 

As you say it's just a number ascribed to an individual coin, and risks subjectivity of grading - ie: different graders, or even the same grader reaching an alternative grade on another day.    

Good point with your last sentence though.

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I think, as has been hinted at in this post, that many place just too much on the slab grade. HOWEVER, when it comes time to sell (if and when that time comes) that the number is absolutely huge. That is really a shame but no matter how much we ramp and rave, this is just the new reality when it comes to pounds or dollars fetched. The other part of it is the "subjectivity" of grading which in itself has so many different facets ranging from accuracy or lack thereof to the questions behind influence of submitters to the grading process itself; how dare we question this.

But as I see it, three positives in slabbing are:

1 - protecting the coin

2 - helping in resale value for marquee coins

3 - providing some rationalization in grading

 

Overall back to the OP point (yet again):    there are definitely price rises in coins like the Una and the Lion, Gothic Crown, etc. If you look at the Heritage ANA sale coming up next month, there are two Unas and more Gothic than I can count with huge estimates. On the other hand, true rarities like the sixpences of 1854 or the 1893 Jub head or the 1850 shilling or the 1854 & 1863 florins or the currency 1839 2/6 are not to be seen. These coins relatively languish and IMHO do not seem to have huge rise in value. And let's not go there with other coins that were once thought a little special like the 1932 florin, etc.

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1 hour ago, VickySilver said:

I think, as has been hinted at in this post, that many place just too much on the slab grade. HOWEVER, when it comes time to sell (if and when that time comes) that the number is absolutely huge. That is really a shame but no matter how much we ramp and rave, this is just the new reality when it comes to pounds or dollars fetched. The other part of it is the "subjectivity" of grading which in itself has so many different facets ranging from accuracy or lack thereof to the questions behind influence of submitters to the grading process itself; how dare we question this.

But as I see it, three positives in slabbing are:

1 - protecting the coin

2 - helping in resale value for marquee coins

3 - providing some rationalization in grading

 

Overall back to the OP point (yet again):    there are definitely price rises in coins like the Una and the Lion, Gothic Crown, etc. If you look at the Heritage ANA sale coming up next month, there are two Unas and more Gothic than I can count with huge estimates. On the other hand, true rarities like the sixpences of 1854 or the 1893 Jub head or the 1850 shilling or the 1854 & 1863 florins or the currency 1839 2/6 are not to be seen. These coins relatively languish and IMHO do not seem to have huge rise in value. And let's not go there with other coins that were once thought a little special like the 1932 florin, etc.

I'd agree with all of the above.

With regard to the influence of submitters, I'd venture to say that because NGC is an American company, generally (one would assume) employing mostly American staff, they are not so well up on English and other foreign coins, just as we would not be especially familiar with American coins. Hence they can probably get away with suggesting that a well preserved and sharply struck currency coin is a proof, or that a common coin is a rare variety etc.  

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4 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

Hence they can probably get away with suggesting that a well preserved and sharply struck currency coin is a proof, or that a common coin is a rare variety etc

Yes - for a long time they seemed to slab many maundy threepences as rare currency strikes - and the market seemed to fall for it. NGC at least seems to have tightened up - I wonder if the market will too. 
 

Generally though, I see the opposite problem: the TPG are overly conservative and fail to capture certain proofs and variations in British coins.  Perhaps if it is not obvious to them (based on a quick flick through the main reference works) they shy away.  A confidence problem? Or it just does not pay for them to make the effort? 
 

This creates opportunities for the collector to arbitrage their mistakes. 

Edited by Menger
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