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A bit left field this, but trying to grope through the murk I wonder if all this was an attempt by Putin to preempt a coup (real or imagined) or similar, as there's an awful lot that doesn't add up militarily. Clearly the invasion of Ukraine was and is an existential problem for that country, but is equally so for Putin. He can't afford to lose or he is toast, so what drove the man to order an attack when it wasn't necessary and carried risks for his entire empire.

The question therefore is why did he invade when the army was so obviously unprepared for a war? This is the real conundrum because he might be a psycopath, but he isn't stupid. The accusations of widespread genocide and Ukrainian attacks on ethnic Russians are patently fictitious to all, so what caused him to need a pretext for going in? After all, armies do not decide to invade a neighbour on a whim because these things take weeks and months of meticulous planning, yet here we are with soldiers apparently expecting to go for an afternoon walk and an army with no apparent sensible logistics organisation, this despite the fact they had just been on exercises - which are precisely what you use to iron out problems and join the dots. The whole episode is suggestive of a snap decision by Putin with no input from his generals, two or three of which have been dismissed and arrested in the last month, though I don't know how many are retired in this manner on a regular basis. Whatever the failings of the Russian army in terms of delegating decisions downwards to the man on the ground, it beggars belief that the generals would be collectively blind to the planning necessities of a military campaign. which again points to a decision about which they were not consulted. 

To paraphrase Lady Bracknell, 'To lose one general may be regarded as a misfortune. To lose seven looks like carelessness.' Estimates of Russian casualties are speculative, but a US estimate says around the 7K mark. Too lose 7 group commanding generals, not to mention a significant number of officers commanding the various constituent units of these groups from such a low total just doesn't make sense. Even if the overall losses were 50% higher, it would still seem like a stitch up.

I think something spooked him because the Russians had 7 or 8 years of experience dealing with the Ukrainian military in the east and even with Russian backing on the ground in Donetsk and Luhansk the separatists had ground to a halt. Why did he take the risk that threatened his position?

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To add to what @Rob said above, the other very obvious failing of Putin is his lies. Nobody can trust a single word he says, so with regard to any negotiations either now over Ukraine, or in the future over anything else, he will be on the back foot, as nobody will take his stated commitments seriously. 

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12 hours ago, Rob said:

I think something spooked him because the Russians had 7 or 8 years of experience dealing with the Ukrainian military in the east and even with Russian backing on the ground in Donetsk and Luhansk the separatists had ground to a halt. Why did he take the risk that threatened his position?

Precisely. What the Russians REALLY want (AFAWK) is a land strip connecting the Crimea to the 2 separatist regions, which unfortunately includes Mariupol, so why didn't they just invade there? A pincer movement from the Crimea and Russia would have involved a "friendly" area to the East, so militarily it would have made sense to the Russian generals. International outrage would still have flared, but not to the extent it has (perhaps more on a par with Crimea and Chechnya). What the attempted grab of Kyiv was all about, who knows what goes on in Putin's head?

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32 minutes ago, Peckris 2 said:

Precisely. What the Russians REALLY want (AFAWK) is a land strip connecting the Crimea to the 2 separatist regions, which unfortunately includes Mariupol, so why didn't they just invade there? A pincer movement from the Crimea and Russia would have involved a "friendly" area to the East, so militarily it would have made sense to the Russian generals. International outrage would still have flared, but not to the extent it has (perhaps more on a par with Crimea and Chechnya). What the attempted grab of Kyiv was all about, who knows what goes on in Putin's head?

Pretty much exactly what I thought. 

It's logic Jim, but not as we know it.

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The only way to treat them at the moment is expect them to do the opposite of what they say they will do

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Does anyone have experience of and can recommend any translation software for Russian or Ukrainian? Ta.

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Posted (edited)

Yes, I know. The wife is trying to use it as I write. Ideally what is required is a program that you speak into and translates. 

Got a week or two until the govt. gets its backside in gear. We are taking in a 41 year old mother, while her 21 yo daughter is not far away with a family where there is someone of a similar age. They don't speak English or German though, so there might be quite a lot of hovercrafts full of eels

Edited by Rob
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43 minutes ago, Rob said:

Yes, I know. The wife is trying to use it as I write. Ideally what is required is a program that you speak into and translates. 

Got a week or two until the govt. gets its backside in gear. We are taking in a 41 year old mother, while her 21 yo daughter is not far away with a family where there is someone of a similar age. They don't speak English or German though, so there might be quite a lot of hovercrafts full of eels

Phenomenal, Rob…HUGE respect 🙏

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17 minutes ago, Coinery said:

Phenomenal, Rob…HUGE respect 🙏

Absolutely. 

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2 hours ago, Rob said:

Yes, I know. The wife is trying to use it as I write. Ideally what is required is a program that you speak into and translates. 

Got a week or two until the govt. gets its backside in gear. We are taking in a 41 year old mother, while her 21 yo daughter is not far away with a family where there is someone of a similar age. They don't speak English or German though, so there might be quite a lot of hovercrafts full of eels

btw Rob, the laugh emoji was for the hovercrafts not for your commendable act. Ill add my ‘like’ here 👍🏽 for that .Well done.

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10 minutes ago, Diaconis said:

btw Rob, the laugh emoji was for the hovercrafts not for your commendable act. Ill add my ‘like’ here 👍🏽 for that .Well done.

Thanks all. It wasn't a difficult decision once no.3 took up a teaching job in Berlin and freed the room up. We worked on the principle that it wasn't good to be where they lived - next to an airfield that was flattened a few weeks ago and was now 15 miles inside Russian held territory. A no-brainer really.

For anyone thinking of doing the same, the easiest way to find someone is to get in contact with a Ukrainian, or one of their social groups. The wife spoke to someone at work who is Ukrainian and they asked around the local community. You get pot luck because it isn't a beauty contest - they could be 20 or 120. Our application was sorted by a local Ukrainian lawyer, so it took 3 days to find someone and get the visa application filled and submitted. Forget the idea that someone in govt will fill the beds offered via their registration scheme. For your part all you need to give is id plus tick a few boxes such as you have to get a landlord's gas safety certificate, which in my case cost nothing as the guy who does my safety certs, did it for free, but would otherwise cost about £50. You also need a smoke alarm on each floor. They will do a DBS check because there are obvious safeguarding issues around children, and most of the people taken in will be lone women or ones with children. 

Language issues or not, it will work.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Diaconis said:

a lot of hovercrafts full of eels

Aparently they are not accepting applications from single men to house young ukrainian women, I wonder why not?

 

hover.jpg

Edited by copper123

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3 hours ago, copper123 said:

Aparently they are not accepting applications from single men to house young ukrainian women, I wonder why not?

 

Oh....I used to know this......

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14 hours ago, copper123 said:

Aparently they are not accepting applications from single men to house young ukrainian women, I wonder why not?

 

 

I wonder what will happen if they self identify as women, given that concessions are made in virtually every other arena, and for some weird reason. nobody seems to dare acknowledge they've still got a working penis and testicles?

Sorry just playing devil's advocate. 

 

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20 hours ago, Rob said:

For anyone thinking of doing the same, the easiest way to find someone is to get in contact with a Ukrainian, or one of their social groups.

https://dbuxton.notion.site/dbuxton/Becoming-a-Homes-for-Ukraine-sponsor-d38cd6e322e04b8ba18cf0af7abd5c63

https://homesforukraine.opora.uk/Login.asp

OPORA is useful and can provide additional support with travel etc.

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I have seen an advert for google translate where the app can speech in real time allowing real time conversation. It can also translate images like a menu. 

https://uk.pcmag.com/blackberry-apps/124768/dont-speak-the-language-how-to-use-google-translate

Haven't tried it myself but well worth checking out. 

 

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Just at the moment I am very worried as to russia's next move .

In the syrian war they were warned time and time again that there would be serious concequences if they used chemical weapons .

They soon got down to using them part way through the conflict and despite all the hot air nothing was the responce.

So if they learn from history, they learn take no notice of the USA as they will be no responce.

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2 hours ago, copper123 said:

Just at the moment I am very worried as to russia's next move .

Russians have started moving into Donbas region this last couple of hours, last night targeted supplies and munitions in the North and West.

As Ukraine move south to reinforce, back door left open for Belarus to target Lviv and Kyiv unopposed, it makes no sense for the Russians  to give up these areas taken, especially as they continue to push towards Odessa and Moldova, Putin may have said He only wants a corridor to Crimea, but that isn't how it reads to me, only a complete victory would seemingly appease him now.

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There was never anything other than the elimination of Ukraine on his agenda.

When the leader of a sovereign state stands up and declares another sovereign has no right to exist, then follows it up with an invasion of the enemy's territory, there is only one possible way to interpret the intent. Couple that with Putin's reading of the Russian poet who stated that Russia must never lose the Ukraine, and if there is a danger of it happening then it must be brought back into the fold by whatever means are necessary, then I fail to see what ambiguity there is in his actions. I just hope that the west is thinking coherently enough to realise that if he goes through Ukraine, then he will also feel compelled to come to the aid of the Transnistran enclave in Moldova. Securing a safe corridor to Kaliningrad anyone? In his ideal world, Russian control would be as in the Cold War.

The only way to stop this is to give Ukraine sufficient arms to enable them to force the Russians out and stick with them for the long term if we are not prepared to put boots on the ground. We need to stop clutching at straws in the hope that he will be satisfied with territory gained and stop because dictators always want to expand their control. The hope that he might be toppled internally will take time that Ukraine doesn't have.  

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20 hours ago, copper123 said:

Just at the moment I am very worried as to russia's next move .

In the syrian war they were warned time and time again that there would be serious concequences if they used chemical weapons .

They soon got down to using them part way through the conflict and despite all the hot air nothing was the responce.

So if they learn from history, they learn take no notice of the USA as there  will be no responce.

 

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On 3/27/2022 at 8:32 PM, Peckris 2 said:

Translation:

"How DARE those b45tards fight back. Ok, the second phase is that we'll go after the Dombass (which is what we were interested in all along) and when they decide they'll give it to us to stop the bombing elsewhere, we'll declare victory and withdraw"

At which point we should allow the remainder of Ukraine to join NATO, along with Finland and Sweden. Taunt Putin with his bellicose, bullying words. 

I strongly suspect now that, apart from hypersonic missiles, which seem like the 21st century equivalent of the V2, the weaponry of the West is superior in every department to the Russians. Putin will be well aware of this. 

One thing that strikes me is that with very effective, long range and lightweight shoulder launched missiles, tanks are suddenly looking a bit dated and vulnerable as an effective battlefield weapon. Something a lot faster and more agile is needed.  

 

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