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How much will the coin market be affected by COVID-19?

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42 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

Whatever happens to prices in the immediate future, it won't affect the overall shortage of accommodation and the fact that there will always be too many buyers chasing too few properties, and too many renters chasing too few private houses for rental. That's a physical reality which isn't going to change, irrespective of Covid.

The 3 bed semi in Chelmsford, which my parents bought in 1974 for about £10k, recently changed hands for £475k. Unreal. Inflation would have taken it to £105k.  

The real uplift in house prices was in the 1970s when inflation was rampant and prices moved up pretty much in line with the inflation figures, and the 1980s when inflation was markedly lower than the previous decade. When we bought our house in 1982 it cost 22k. Seven years later it was priced at four times that (inflation over the 7 years would have increased it from 22k to 31k instead of the market value 90k). The early 90s saw a fall of 20-30% in places, with a subsequent pickup from the lower base making the market appear stronger, but house price inflation has been relatively benign since the turn of the millennium. Obviously there will be local differences.

So for those with a job and a decent income, I don't think a great deal will change, though there might be more choice.

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Real terms UK house price inflation since 1975:-

 

real uk house prices since 1975.PNG

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What a simply marvelous graphic. UK house prices shown in $. 😠

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The last thing you worry about when theres no electricity or food in the fridge is your coin collection.

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39 minutes ago, copper123 said:

The last thing you worry about when theres no electricity or food in the fridge is your coin collection.

Food isn't a problem at the moment, but might be by summer if we can't raise enough enthusiasm amongst the locals to start picking. There's no reason for a shortage of food in the fridge as long as supplies to supermarkets hold up.

I'm surprised that electricity use has apparently increased with the lockdown. Fewer buildings used in industrial production and dramatically fewer train journeys, trams etc I would have expected to exceed increased home computer, TV and other uses.

Judging by the prices at DNW yesterday, money is not an issue. In fact the prices would suggest that what would be normally spent on leisure, was being diverted into coins. Some of those were eye watering for what was a fairly mundane selection of numismatic items.

 

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2 hours ago, Peckris 2 said:

What a simply marvelous graphic. UK house prices shown in $. 😠

I know. Irritating though it is, it was the best I could find on casual search. 

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46 minutes ago, Rob said:

Food isn't a problem at the moment, but might be by summer if we can't raise enough enthusiasm amongst the locals to start picking. There's no reason for a shortage of food in the fridge as long as supplies to supermarkets hold up.

I'm surprised that electricity use has apparently increased with the lockdown. Fewer buildings used in industrial production and dramatically fewer train journeys, trams etc I would have expected to exceed increased home computer, TV and other uses.

Judging by the prices at DNW yesterday, money is not an issue. In fact the prices would suggest that what would be normally spent on leisure, was being diverted into coins. Some of those were eye watering for what was a fairly mundane selection of numismatic items.

 

Plenty of furloughed locals have applied. In fact many farmers haven't needed to officially advertise at all.

Also, apparently, plane loads of Romanians are being flown in.........

Yes, it is surprising about electricity. 

 

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I think it will take some time for the economic impact to really show. I run an online hobby related sales business. The day after Borris announced the lockdown we broke our combined ebay and amazon sales figures. This was then repeated for the following five days successively. At that point we'd experienced a 400% sales rise in ebay and a 950% rise in Amazon sales. Then we rapidly ran out of stock some of which is imported from the Far East and right now we have no idea when the flights bringing that in will resume. 

Although some of those sales will be from bricks and mortar outlets closing, people are sat at home bored so are shopping online far more than ever. I watched the DNW auction also and saw the high prices. Something we can draw comparisons with very easily. Again, people are bored stuck at home. 

But it will take time to see how many of the businesses currently closed will survive with the results taking time to follow through. The next 6 to 12 months will really start to show the impact of COVID19 imho. 

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yes people at home bored will do wonder for the sales of certain things , I wonder if amazon and ebay jointly released the virus into the uk.

In my opinion coins have been underpiced for years a rare coin from the uk fetches 1% of what a rare coin in the states fetches regardless of the fact theym  only outnumber us by 6 to 1.

And by a rare coin I dont mean a 2018 peter rabbit.

Edited by copper123

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11 hours ago, copper123 said:

The last thing you worry about when theres no electricity or food in the fridge is your coin collection.

I don't keep my electricity in the fridge. :ph34r:

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I don't know - the contents of my fridge are pretty shocking.....

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I got one item @ DNW yesterday - had set a £200 limit - and I'm usually strict in applying pre-determined limits in real time - but went to £220 which I probably wouldn't have done pre-Covid (it wasn't the sort of coin that'll never turn up again).  I guess there is some element of boredom here, with all my other hobbies (football, travel, playing bridge, eating out) firmly off the agenda for 6 months or more.  

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Well, the US has reported 26 million unemployed adults, and the numbers may be higher....I think this is a marker of economic pressure that will start to put negative pressure on at least the bottom to middle ground in the collector markets, including coins. This economy reminds me of a modern ship hitting a rock or hit by a torpedo - the compartments affected are completely flooded out, but containment doors hold even the compartments adjacent dry and unaffected until pressure builds and blows through a door, and then that compartment is flooded, etc.

Eventually the ship begins to list and even sink....Hopefully the economy does not go the latter.

Edited by VickySilver

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8 minutes ago, VickySilver said:

Well, the US has reported 26 million unemployed adults, and the numbers may be higher....I think this is a marker of economic pressure that will start to put negative pressure on at least the bottom to middle ground in the collector markets, including coins. This economy reminds me of a modern ship hitting a rock or hit by a torpedo - the compartments affected are completely flooded out, but containment doors hold even the compartments adjacent dry and unaffected until pressure builds and blows through a door, and then that compartment is flooded, etc.

Eventually the ship begins to list and even sink....Hopefully the economy does not go the latter.

No-one knows what the long term economic impact of COVID19 is likely to be. 

I agree that the bottom of the coin market is likely to be hit, but I think this is the confirmation of a long term trend. There are fewer collectors of lower quality material, and the internet makes it hard to sell very common coins profitably (or at all !), because there's far more supply than demand.

Just compare the Spink prices for common George VI and Elizabeth II predecimal issues to the market reality...it's impossible to sell most of these pieces in unc. for more than a few pounds each in my experience.

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2 hours ago, pokal02 said:

I got one item @ DNW yesterday - had set a £200 limit - and I'm usually strict in applying pre-determined limits in real time - but went to £220 which I probably wouldn't have done pre-Covid (it wasn't the sort of coin that'll never turn up again).  I guess there is some element of boredom here, with all my other hobbies (football, travel, playing bridge, eating out) firmly off the agenda for 6 months or more.  

Does your coin show as having been sent (shipped) yet? 

ETA: Just managed to get through to them. There's just one guy on his own in the office at the moment, to deal with all the consignments from Wednesday's auction, with a packer coming in later. He's in all weekend as well and hoping to get most of them sent from Monday onwards next week. He did say there was a small chance that a very few might go today.

Nobody has collected in person at all on this occasion - obviously because of Covid 19 worries. 

Edited by 1949threepence

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I have noted over the last couple of years many sellers just relist , relist ,their coins that dont sell, its just boreing seeing a 1885 farthing in VF grade for a minmum bid of £20.00 when £2 would be fair , thus the number of items for sale on ebay goes up,up,up but the interest of collectors decreases

There should be a limit on the number of times an item is listed.

Dunno how that would be policed though.

There is an Anne farthing listed as genuine in the states , I informed the seller it was a fake as you can see the casting port .

It's still for sale five years after I told the owner its  a fake, he refuses to lower the price , would have to be nearer £50 than the £500 or so he wants for it

FFS why do I bother

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BINs automatically relist, so it makes sense as a seller to put them up and just let them go round and round. Listing is a pain in the ****. Also, competitive bidding is virtually non-existent, so why sell as an auction and only get the opening bid price, assuming it gets even one bid? You basically have to set the opening price at a level you would be willing to sell at given eBay take a fee for setting a reserve.

With regard to the number of items listed on eBay, they long passed the level at which it was possible to view most of the offerings. 15-20 years ago the average number of listings in the Britsh section was around the 3000 mark with a significant percentage selling. As I write, this number stands at 424,780, which further reinforces the rationale for listing as a BIN - eventually someone will view it, and one day someone might even buy it! What is certain is that relatively few people will see it when listed for 7 days, but furthermore be willing to bid it up. You need a few interested parties to generate a good price.

Given the advances in computers, storage, processing speed and general all round capability, it is only likely to provide facilities for an even greater number of listings. If the capacity is there it will be used.

Edited by Rob
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So many times we find things on Ebay that no-one spotted.

15 years ago we would all have been bidding against each other, making the rarity sell for proper money.

Now a £300 penny can be grabbed for £10, and the seller never knows....

So maybe that's an upside...?

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22 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

Does your coin show as having been sent (shipped) yet? 

ETA: Just managed to get through to them. There's just one guy on his own in the office at the moment, to deal with all the consignments from Wednesday's auction, with a packer coming in later. He's in all weekend as well and hoping to get most of them sent from Monday onwards next week. He did say there was a small chance that a very few might go today.

Nobody has collected in person at all on this occasion - obviously because of Covid 19 worries. 

The one I got in the Apr 8 auction arrived on Apr 18.    So expecting this one about Thur (knocking off a couple of days as the first one was over Easter).  I'll be OK if he does them in lot number order - mine was lot 10!

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Hmm, I don't find the eBay bargains or even the quality that I did some years ago.

 

But this thread came off the rails IMO. The question is: how, if at all, is the current virus situation going to affect the coin market? And in fact, my guess is that there is a bit of the ostrich head in the sand bit until the reality sets in. In other words, the tale is yet to be told but without being a stick in the mud, this IS going to have affect eventually and the question is when?

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4 hours ago, VickySilver said:

Hmm, I don't find the eBay bargains or even the quality that I did some years ago.

 

But this thread came off the rails IMO. The question is: how, if at all, is the current virus situation going to affect the coin market? And in fact, my guess is that there is a bit of the ostrich head in the sand bit until the reality sets in. In other words, the tale is yet to be told but without being a stick in the mud, this IS going to have affect eventually and the question is when?

I find zero at the moment have to be content with the odd pick up at birmingham or whatever.

There were more bargains years ago

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