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Peckris 2

Salutary lesson for beginners

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I only update the values in my database every few years - in fact, the last time was using Spink 2012. I just picked up Spink 2018 for a reasonable price; having an interest in the history of values, I input all values listed in Spink for each coin, not just for the grade I currently own. This is useful when I upgrade coins, for example.

But I was in for a shock this time. Very occasionally, even an UNC value has gone down in 6 years, but generally these have increased, sometimes substantially. EF gains are much more modest, if at all. VF is often static, but often too, the values have gone down. But in F, virtually nothing except the highest rarities have shown any increase, but mostly prices have fallen. To give examples, F bun pennies which were £4 or £5 in 2012 had fallen to £2 by 2018. Yet a not unusual bun penny goes from £2 in F to £700 in BU! That's 350 times. However, it's probably true to say that buns before 1883 are at least 350 times as hard to find in BU as in F.

The lesson is clear: if all you can afford is a date run in F ... DON'T! At least, not unless you are in it purely for the fun and you don't give a fig about values. The perennial dictum about "buy the highest grade you can afford" has never been more true than now. Fewer coins but in higher grades will do better (and be nicer to look at IMO) than a whole load in F. 

The market now wants the rarest coins and / or the top grades. Everything else is starting to fall by the wayside.

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Very interesting Chris, and thanks for the info.

Obviously, as you sort of indicate above, for the very rarest coins, it's almost impossible to obtain an example above fine anyway. In some cases, such as the F90 or F169, and with the exception of one, the F164A also, they simply don't exist in the known population.

Truly BU pennies before 1883, are very few and far between, even for the "common" years. Mostly we have to settle for GEF with some residual lustre.

   

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On 12 October 2019 at 8:06 PM, 1949threepence said:

Very interesting Chris, and thanks for the info.

Obviously, as you sort of indicate above, for the very rarest coins, it's almost impossible to obtain an example above fine anyway. In some cases, such as the F90 or F169, and with the exception of one, the F164A also, they simply don't exist in the known population.

Truly BU pennies before 1883, are very few and far between, even for the "common" years. Mostly we have to settle for GEF with some residual lustre.

Yup. I also note many late 18C early 19C coppers don't now get a BU value in Spink (unlike 2012) as they're so rarely on the market.

Tbh, I haven't seen so many price falls since the 80s. I blame Brexit!

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Strange thing is people have been warning about buying lower grade material for years but their warnings fell on deaf ears with only a finate amount of coins and a growing army of collectors .Even in the last few years lower grade stuff made fantastic prices on ebay as collectors increased their interest or rekindled their interest.

Possably now the message has sunk in that its only the high grade stuff thats rare and most available coins are dross (Not nice to say really but probably true.

The next few years migh show UK numismatics turning to the american model (ie more slabbed coins )

Edited by copper123

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2 hours ago, copper123 said:

The next few years migh show UK numismatics turning to the american model (ie more slabbed coins )

Oh God, I do hope not. :(

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3 hours ago, Peckris 2 said:

Oh God, I do hope not. :(

Well it has led to a rise in  rare american coin values of 100 fold while british coins have doubled or trebled in the same period

See world view page 30  in The "Coin collector" winter 2019 edition

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2 hours ago, copper123 said:

Well it has led to a rise in  rare american coin values of 100 fold while british coins have doubled or trebled in the same period

See world view page 30  in The "Coin collector" winter 2019 edition

Values aren’t everything. Some of us want to handle our coins with care, viewing under different lighting conditions, as nature (or mints) intended, not entombed in scratchable plastic.

 

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True , but the value of coins is also directly influenced but the number of collectors .

In america the hobby is flurishing and in the uk coin collectors are looked on as a little weird / strange and its also not seen as in any way mainstream like the USA.

Mind you we have the great advantage of no trump

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On 10/26/2019 at 6:00 PM, Peckris 2 said:

Values aren’t everything. Some of us want to handle our coins with care, viewing under different lighting conditions, as nature (or mints) intended, not entombed in scratchable plastic.

 

Most of the coins I've had from the US have been slabbed by NGC. The first thing I do is take a hammer to them.

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It really depends what you're collecting.  For post-1816 I'd agree with most of the above but for earlier milled and hammered my impression is that F coins have done reasonably well and VF's a bit better.   It's taken me 20+ years (before then I didn't worry about grades at all) even to eliminate, with one exception, the words Poor, Fair and VG from my collection!

 I'd never collect much above VF anyway as part of the fun is imagining the coins having circulated/used by people  hundreds of years ago. 

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anyone else having difficulty posting? I'm just getting endless 'Saving...' when I press 'Submit Reply'.

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8 hours ago, Peckris 2 said:

anyone else having difficulty posting? I'm just getting endless 'Saving...' when I press 'Submit Reply'.

Let me try

ETA - no problem here. Maybe issue has passed.

Edited by 1949threepence
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9 hours ago, pokal02 said:

It really depends what you're collecting.  For post-1816 I'd agree with most of the above but for earlier milled and hammered my impression is that F coins have done reasonably well and VF's a bit better.   It's taken me 20+ years (before then I didn't worry about grades at all) even to eliminate, with one exception, the words Poor, Fair and VG from my collection!

 I'd never collect much above VF anyway as part of the fun is imagining the coins having circulated/used by people  hundreds of years ago. 

Yes, I find myself doing the same. You just wonder about the many hands they've passed through and tills they've been in. Not to mention the countless pockets and purses, as well as the places they've been spent.

Actually, to a certain extent you also wonder about the high grade specimens. Were they specially saved by the collectors of their day, or did they become lost in some drawer or down the back of an old settee, only to emerge more than a hundred years later?  I've a little personal theory on that one: I tend to think that if the edge is as lustrous as the faces of the coin, then they've been lost. If the edge is well toned as compared to the remainder of the coin, they've been collected, but have innumerable edge handling marks.   

 

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21 hours ago, pokal02 said:

It really depends what you're collecting.  For post-1816 I'd agree with most of the above but for earlier milled and hammered my impression is that F coins have done reasonably well and VF's a bit better.   It's taken me 20+ years (before then I didn't worry about grades at all) even to eliminate, with one exception, the words Poor, Fair and VG from my collection!

 I'd never collect much above VF anyway as part of the fun is imagining the coins having circulated/used by people  hundreds of years ago. 

Yeah - for early milled, Fine coins have done perfectly well. I have a good group of pre-1816 coins I bought as a teenager (c. 2005 - 10) at retail prices, all in the best grade I could afford at the time (mostly VG to aVF), and most would be a steal in today's market, with the exception of the 1689/1690 halfcrown varieties which were probably overpriced in lower grades back then. The price rises for some of the copper seems absurd - doesn't seem to be possible to get a decent Charles II halfpenny for less than around £200 now-days, despite what the Spink prices suggest. 

The token market is also different. Common 18th century halfpennies which were only worth a few quid in low grades ten years ago now go for £5 - 10 on eBay easily. 

With my current collections I try not to settle for anything less than VF+ coins/tokens for common issues. With rarities, anything goes.

 

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When I was first collecting Charles II crowns (late 80's but I don't think they went up much in the 90s), the common dates were about £25-30 in F and £55-65 in VF.   Probably about £150-180 and £450-500 now, although Spink has them still higher.     1818-1847 have done OK  too,  1887-1936 not as well although they certainly haven't decreased in value (other than by inflation).  

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25 minutes ago, pokal02 said:

When I was first collecting Charles II crowns (late 80's but I don't think they went up much in the 90s), the common dates were about £25-30 in F and £55-65 in VF.   Probably about £150-180 and £450-500 now, although Spink has them still higher.     1818-1847 have done OK  too,  1887-1936 not as well although they certainly haven't decreased in value (other than by inflation).  

well many parts of the coin markets have performed in different ways yes .

I general early hammered have gone up well and performed well as have later hammered stuart tudor and stuart silver , even taking into account all the metal detecting finds there have been , admitedly most have been soaked up by museums.

The mainstay of coin collecting has to be milled from 1662- 1787 and also the later machine made coins ie george III onward , this is what the heart of many coin collections  is.

Copper and silver has to the norm as well as gold has priced all but the most wealthy collectors out (A monarch run in sovs or halfs is while expensive is  acheavable.

Edited by copper123

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5 hours ago, copper123 said:

well many parts of the coin markets have performed in different ways yes .

I general early hammered have gone up well and performed well as have later hammered stuart tudor and stuart silver , even taking into account all the metal detecting finds there have been , admitedly most have been soaked up by museums.

The mainstay of coin collecting has to be milled from 1662- 1787 and also the later machine made coins ie george III onward , this is what the heart of many coin collections  is.

Copper and silver has to the norm as well as gold has priced all but the most wealthy collectors out (A monarch run in sovs or halfs is while expensive is  acheavable.

The thing about early hammered prices is that they were a lot higher relative to milled issues and later hammered coins back in the 1970s. If you look at the Seaby prices for the rarer Norman issues they’ve not gone up much since then once inflation is figured in. Definitely more expensive now than ten years ago but playing catch-up.

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Footnote:

I've just entered values for George VI and almost across the board those prices have increased. It seems his reign has been undervalued and is now catching up. (Mind you, mostly there are only values for EF and UNC - but to compare, Elizabeth II is static.)

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21 hours ago, Peckris 2 said:

Footnote:

I've just entered values for George VI and almost across the board those prices have increased. It seems his reign has been undervalued and is now catching up. (Mind you, mostly there are only values for EF and UNC - but to compare, Elizabeth II is static.)

Then she should get out more.

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