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So, Brexit....What's happening?

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Boris or Jeremy ? The circus starts again today.

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8 hours ago, secret santa said:

Boris or Jeremy ? The circus starts again today.

Boris - we knew it would be. 

What amuses me are those who vehemently oppose a no deal brexit, yet full well know that parliament will not accept the current deal, and the EU refuses to renegotiate. So what deal are they referring to? 

The puffed up self important arrogance of these idiots is something else. They speak a different language to everyone outside the M25 orbit. 

 

 

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Boris could end up with the shortest tenure ever.

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A bit more fun to watch for the next couple of weeks. I will be interested to see how Boris does 😀

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

Boris - we knew it would be. 

What amuses me are those who vehemently oppose a no deal brexit, yet full well know that parliament will not accept the current deal, and the EU refuses to renegotiate. So what deal are they referring to? 

The puffed up self important arrogance of these idiots is something else. They speak a different language to everyone outside the M25 orbit. 

 

 

Quite. The people voted for Brexit. The EU elections  reinforced this result but the remainders still refuse to accept this.  Hopefully Boris can produce if necessary a no deal Brexit. Perhaps not the ideal result but in face of EU intransigence the only possible way to meet the results of the Brexit referendum and EU elections. Given all that has happened I do not know how the UK could live with its self if it remained in the EU.

Edited by ozjohn
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10 hours ago, ozjohn said:

Given all that has happened I do not know how the UK could live with its self if it remained in the EU.

I voted to leave but the biggest threat to us now is a Corbyn government rather than staying in the EU.

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3 hours ago, secret santa said:

I voted to leave but the biggest threat to us now is a Corbyn government rather than staying in the EU.

Labour alliance with the SNP brings on cold shivers

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If the SNP get their way you are probably looking at another hard border for  a diminishing UK. IMO the best way to encourage this would be to have another Brexit referendum. If you can have another bite of the cherry why can't we have the same etc. etc. 

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Given the relative amount of money per head sent north from London to Scotland under the Barnett formula, studiously avoiding the north of England on the way, the best way to achieve Scottish independence would be a nationwide referendum.

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On 7/24/2019 at 9:21 AM, secret santa said:

I voted to leave but the biggest threat to us now is a Corbyn government rather than staying in the EU.

The obvious danger being the conservative vote being split with the Brexit Party allowing Corbyn in by the back door. 

That's why it's essential we leave one way or the other.  

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Posted (edited)
On 7/25/2019 at 5:35 AM, Rob said:

Given the relative amount of money per head sent north from London to Scotland under the Barnett formula, studiously avoiding the north of England on the way, the best way to achieve Scottish independence would be a nationwide referendum.

What you are saying is Scotland is a drag on the rest of the UK ie they cost more than they create. Given that the Scots would be very stupid to vote to part from the UK. The only thing they have going for them is oil (prices depressed) and  with the rise of electric cars likely to remain so other than spikes due to world events which is not a good basis for your economy. Also with impending Brexit and a likely customs barrier against Scotland their prospects are bleak. However nationalism has never been based on rational thought. Like they say Brexit means Brexit and independence for Scotland means independence for Scotland no support from the rest of the UK.

Edited by ozjohn

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Boris Johnson.................words are failing me.

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34 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

Boris Johnson.................words are failing me.

Don't blame him - parliament/speaker will never allow us to leave.

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On 7/23/2019 at 5:11 PM, secret santa said:

Boris could end up with the shortest tenure ever.

The way things are going, that eventuality is looking far more probable than not. 

He is totally boxed in on all sides, and short of some unexpected miracle I see no escape for him.

 

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21 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

The way things are going, that eventuality is looking far more probable than not. 

He is totally boxed in on all sides, and short of some unexpected miracle I see no escape for him.

 

He could be playing a very good long game. Looking at all that has been going on, Boris is on the ropes taking a few punches now, but is He down and out, I think not. It is going to be an interesting next couple of weeks.

He has got ALL the opposition parties including his own 'Remain rebels' now independent members, publicly ganging up on him to stop a 'no deal' brexit,

During an interview today on BBC News at 1300 hrs, an MP quoted, 'We have Boris boxed in from all sides, and we now control Parliament, this will lead to the end of this Tory Government and Brexit!'. So maybe not just trying to block a no deal as has been said.

The opposition are also refusing to have an Election until after a Law has passed Royal ascent compelling him to extend Article 50 for at least another 3 months delay to January 2020.

Along with Farage, the Tories could be increasingly seen as the Brexit Party, doing everything they can to get a deal but promising to Leave with or without on 31 October. The opposition on the other hand are doing all they can to stop him, with new Laws, Court Cases and refusing a General election, which Boris has loosely quoted as being the Peoples Vote to deciding the outcome on 31 Oct.

The EU election saw about the same percentage of voters take part as the EU Referendum,  over 70%, and the result later confirmed by the BBC, after firstly reversing it, was inline with the EU referendum with leave Parties polling a higher number than remain, but overall numbers of voters do not count in a General election.

Take those EU votes to a constituent level, as a general election would, the vote was over 400 Leave against 200 remain,  which would give a  Brexit Government/Alliance a possible Parliamentary majority of around 100, if everyone voted the same way i.e. for the  Party that expresses their view on Brexit.

Lib Dems have already said that they would not form a coalition with Labour, to the point that in a No Confidence vote muted a couple of weeks ago they would not endorse Corbyn even as a Temporary Leader,  so why would they stand aside to let Labour take seats they could gain for themselves,. Corbyn is currently polling lower than Michael Foot at the height of his demise.

The SNP will go with anyone that would allow them their own referendum, but will they have sufficient numbers to help form a Government.

It would seem therefore that this Opposition pact could be as fragile as the current Government.

Be interesting to hear others thoughts on the developing situation, without anyone getting too carried away with themselves, or getting personal.

 

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I’m pretty much with you on this, I think a long game is being played here. All that happened last week was entirely predictable to Boris and his advisors, from the need to purge the party of remainers who were never going to respond positively to his threats, to the General Election vote(s) which he already knew/knows he can’t win at this stage. He is not a fool despite what some like to think,  and Cummings and his team will have ‘war gamed’ the way to Brexit ad infinitum. So I feel there has to be purpose, whether influencing the electorate or some other ‘cunning plan’ I don’t know.  I think the only genuine surprise was the resignation of his brother, which must have hurt. I think we have an interesting two months ahead. And as an aside, can you, as one of the twenty-eight, use your veto against acceptance of your own extension request? I don’t know.

I was rather disappointed to see this topic resurrected, it will only lead to further bitterness. But, like others, I find the topic difficult to ignore.

Jerry

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12 hours ago, jelida said:

And as an aside, can you, as one of the twenty-eight, use your veto against acceptance of your own extension request?

No.

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1 hour ago, terrysoldpennies said:

But it's Rumoured that Macron might veto an extension.

Hope springs eternal

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3 hours ago, terrysoldpennies said:

But it's Rumoured that Macron might veto an extension.

I don't think so.  The Remain Alliance consulted with the EU beforehand, so they must know that an extension will be agreed.

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Two points. My understanding is that all 28 states have to agree the extension, and although it might be assumed Boris would vote for his own request, he might be able to say quite clearly that he votes against it. That seems to be a possibility.

There is one other nuclear option open to him. Boris goes to the summit and outlines his plan for a deal on leaving. If he gets agreement, then no problem. If he doesn't, he is expected to ask for an extension. But if he resigns as PM immediately prior to signing and handing over the request for an extension, he is no longer legally obliged to make the request. It would take some choreography, but it could happen. At this point, no request has been made, the summit ends and the UK leaves with no deal in 14 days. Boris remains the Tory leader, just not PM, something he can justify with a massive hole in his majority. That would leave the opponents scrambling around for a PM to deliver the letter, but the problem is that the summit is over and there is no clear mechanism for obtaining the agreement of the other EU states. 

Anybody see any holes in this scenario. It has the advantage for Boris, of allowing him to claim he managed to deliver Brexit, despite all the efforts of parliament. 

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6 hours ago, terrysoldpennies said:

But it's Rumoured that Macron might veto an extension.

Boris will have asked him to anyway. Further rumours are that Viktor Orban of Hungary might join him.

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3 hours ago, Nick said:

I don't think so.  The Remain Alliance consulted with the EU beforehand, so they must know that an extension will be agreed.

Point is, even if a further extension to 31.1.20 is agreed, this situation can't go on indefinitely. The EU won't budge on the backstop unless we can come up with some technological way of obviating the need for it. Parliament won't approve the current deal, so we're done.

The only way out is a general election - which is absolutely unavoidable now - in which a conservative government is returned with a meaningful majority and/or a 2nd referendum.   

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