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So, Brexit....What's happening?

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"Many older voters without party allegiances to consider will not support him due to his and much of the left's opposition to the creation of private wealth in the first place. "

I'm not entirely convinced that Corbyn et al. are opposed to Private Wealth.  I do know that the Labour Party is very much opposed to the alarming increase in real poverty brought about by the present government's austerity campaign. People die because of deliberate officialy sanctioned neglect. It is projected that in the next five years child poverty in the UK will reach 37%.

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Child poverty?  I think Australia is similar to the UK in this regard. Much is said about it. However when  parents stop spending money on smoking, booze, gambling , drugs etc. and start to look after their children would be a good start in combatting it. Much of it is child neglect by parents. Not sure what this has to do with Brexit.

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The silence is deafening after the EU election results where the Brexit party achieved stunning results  A second referendum without having a second referendum? In any case a result that the Tories & Labor ignore at their peril.

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9 hours ago, ozjohn said:

The silence is deafening after the EU election results where the Brexit party achieved stunning results  A second referendum without having a second referendum? In any case a result that the Tories & Labor ignore at their peril.

On the contrary,  Lib Dems are quoting this as a resounding result for Remain. By adding all the remain votes, Parties that want the process stopped, they are saying it clearly shows a clear majority of voters want to remain in the EU.

They have not added the Conservative or Labour vote to this tally, or taken into account over 60% of the voting population didn't take part.

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9 hours ago, ozjohn said:

The silence is deafening after the EU election results where the Brexit party achieved stunning results  A second referendum without having a second referendum? In any case a result that the Tories & Labor ignore at their peril.

What is there to say, foregone conclusion. The EU is over there so what has that got to do with domestic UK.

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52 minutes ago, Chingford said:

On the contrary,  Lib Dems are quoting this as a resounding result for Remain. By adding all the remain votes, Parties that want the process stopped, they are saying it clearly shows a clear majority of voters want to remain in the EU.

They have not added the Conservative or Labour vote to this tally, or taken into account over 60% of the voting population didn't take part.

What vote, both the Tories and Labor lost out big time as both parties ignored the results of the original referendum. It seems to come down the  Brexit party  representing the leavers and the Lib/Democrats the remainders. looking from Australia it can only be interpreted as a resounding result for the leavers and will increase the pressure on the Tory remainders who will be slaughtered at the next general election if they ignore the message the electorate is sending. I can tell you one thing when it comes to a choice for a polly, principle or being reelected they will chose the latter every time. 

As for people who cannot be bothered to vote. That's their problem. Either get your butts to the polling station or miss out. If you cannot do that you can only blame yourselves. The ability of the Poms to not vote and then complain about the result beggars belief. If they had voted at the original referendum perhaps there would have been a different result, who knows but that's irrelevant, they should have voted.

Edited by ozjohn
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10 minutes ago, ozjohn said:

What vote, both the Tories and Labor lost out big time as both parties ignored the results of the original referendum. It seems to come down the  Brexit party  representing the leavers and the Lib/Democrats the remainders. looking from Australia it can only be interpreted as a resounding result for the leavers and will increase the pressure on the Tory remainders who will be slaughtered at the next general election if they ignore the message the electorate is sending. I can tell you one thing when it comes to a choice for a polly, principle or being reelected they will chose the latter every time. 

As for people who cannot be bothered to vote. That's their problem. Either get your butts to the polling station or miss out. If you cannot do that you can only blame yourselves. The ability of the Poms to not vote and then complain about the result beggars belief. If they had voted at the original referendum perhaps there would have been a different result, who knows but that's irrelevant, they should have voted.

That's Politics. The results can be cut/carved to suit both sides of the argument.

Even though the Labour/Conservative votes were low they still represented the views of 23% of voters, a significant proportion of the turnout.

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In your system first past the post is the winner. That's what the pollies will be taking notice off. You can cut and carve it as much as you like but that's what it boils down to.

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Looking at it from the present (oh how hindsight in the future may change this), but it seems to me that the Tories and Labour are finished - notwithstanding a major shift in policy from either of them. The whole mess reminds me of what happened to the Liberal Party of old at the turn of the Twentieth century over Home Rule in Ireland. Both parties are split, with politicians within each either falling pro or anti EU - This appears more marked in the Conservative party than in the Labour party. The biggest problem Labour has is in its heartlands. Its core voters are split between the Remainers in Scotland and the South, and the Leavers in the Midlands and North. The latest election results saw an almost complete wipeout in Yorkshire, particularly so in Barnsley as much a strong Labour heartland as if ever there was one, where Brexit Party cleared about 23,000 votes and Labour came second with 7,600. Pretty decisive me thinks. In all across the whole of Yorkshire and Humber the Brexit Party won every area with the notable exception of York which the Liberals took. So if Labour back the remain horse, then they have lost most of their voters in the northern areas (which the Liberals will do a better job at representing being less divided), if they back leave then they've lost their remain voters everywhere else. Either way I think the party is pretty much up a creek without a paddle.

There's a quiet revolution going on that the media, mainstream politicians and champagne socialists et al. haven't quite figured out.

The new forces of British politics are the resurgent Lib-Dems versus some kind of grouping around the embryonic Brexit Party (as Farage has said, six weeks old and it has swept the rest by the wayside, pretty remarkable really). The Tories and Labour offer no solutions and are too fractured to ever resolve the issue and whichever path they choose be it, remain, leave or as Labour have tried to straddle both, from the current viewpoint they're pretty much screwed.

Have no illusions, the Brexit Party's victory was resounding. The remain dominated media are trying in vain to spin it that remain won, yeah by adding all the votes of the remain team together. I'm not sure how that is helpful, that's like saying the 2nd, 3rd and 4th runners in a race won because cumulatively they ran further than the quickest athlete.

Edited by Sylvester
Punctuation errors
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As I see it, Theresa May's successor is completely snookered if they attempt to push for any re-negotiation, as the EU have tonight made it "crystal clear" they will not be re-opening the deal.

Secondly parliament is trapped in a complete double bind, if, as seems probable, they refuse to accept a no deal brexit. Either they eat humble pie and accept the current deal, or they rescind article 50. The first option will make them look weak and vacuous, and the second will result in complete uproar both among brexiteers in parliament and in the country as a whole. 

A routine request for a further extension beyond 31st October will probably be refused, as the EU will probably want to see the back of Farage and his mates, stirring up trouble for them as MEP's. 

The face saving way forward, for the entire parliament, is obviously (and inevitably in my view), a second referendum, for which a further extension would probably be granted. Then will come the huge row about how many questions will be on the ballot paper.  

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13 hours ago, Chingford said:

On the contrary,  Lib Dems are quoting this as a resounding result for Remain. By adding all the remain votes, Parties that want the process stopped, they are saying it clearly shows a clear majority of voters want to remain in the EU.

They have not added the Conservative or Labour vote to this tally, or taken into account over 60% of the voting population didn't take part.

Found the image for the above on BBC News website

 

_107119630_brexit_pos-nc.jpg

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THE UK HAS HAD THE REFERENDUM  THAT VOTED TO LEAVE  52% to leave 48% to stay. If that was the result of a general election no one would question the result as it would deliver a majority of seats to the party who achieved this majority.  What part of democracy don't the remainders understand? 

Was leaving the EU ever going to be easy?  No! The EU were always going to oppose Brexit. Not because they like the UK but as it threatens the stability of the EU. 

 It's about time the UK gained a set of balls and told the EU how it's going to be. If this means a no deal exit so be it. The time for procrastination is over.

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If you believe the BBC then you will believe anything. The UK does not have a preferential voting system and if the EU election results are extrapolated to the UK first past the post system. For example say the results for a seat were as follows Tory 41% , Labor 40% and Others 19% the Tory candidate would win the seat and the same with the Brexit party if a general election were called. What the BBC is trying is to post the results in a way that does not represent your voting system to further its own agenda.  I amazes me that the Poms have so little knowledge of their voting system. I suppose it goes hand in hand with the lack of turnout at elections.

The result represents an indorsement to leave EU. See my above post.

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Can anybody find the stats showing the actual number of votes cast in the UK for each party?

I've searched and searched and come up with zilch. All I can find is percentages, which I'm not certain I trust without the precise figures to back them up.

I say that because someone said that based on actual votes cast, it was still 52% to 48% in favour of leave.  

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7 hours ago, ozjohn said:

If you believe the BBC then you will believe anything. The UK does not have a preferential voting system and if the EU election results are extrapolated to the UK first past the post system. For example say the results for a seat were as follows Tory 41% , Labor 40% and Others 19% the Tory candidate would win the seat and the same with the Brexit party if a general election were called. What the BBC is trying is to post the results in a way that does not represent your voting system to further its own agenda.  I amazes me that the Poms have so little knowledge of their voting system. I suppose it goes hand in hand with the lack of turnout at elections.

The result represents an indorsement to leave EU. See my above post.

I don't trust the BBC one millimetre. They no longer make any pretence of impartiality.

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29 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

Can anybody find the stats showing the actual number of votes cast in the UK for each party?

I've searched and searched and come up with zilch. All I can find is percentages, which I'm not certain I trust without the precise figures to back them up.

I say that because someone said that based on actual votes cast, it was still 52% to 48% in favour of leave.  

Tried to Cut and paste but not having it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/crjeqkdevwvt/the-uks-european-elections-2019

 

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 Don't worry we have the same problem with the ABC here in Australia. Gender issues, support of the Labor party ( who just lost the general election despite their support for it) , climate change, biased reporting etc. Like you say not to be trusted.

Edited by ozjohn
typo
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10 hours ago, ozjohn said:

THE UK HAS HAD THE REFERENDUM  THAT VOTED TO LEAVE  52% to leave 48% to stay. If that was the result of a general election no one would question the result as it would deliver a majority of seats to the party who achieved this majority.  What part of democracy don't the remainders understand? 

Was leaving the EU ever going to be easy?  No! The EU were always going to oppose Brexit. Not because they like the UK but as it threatens the stability of the EU. 

 It's about time the UK gained a set of balls and told the EU how it's going to be. If this means a no deal exit so be it. The time for procrastination is over.

I cannot help but think everything is ONE BIG MESS

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2 hours ago, ozjohn said:

 Don't worry we have the same problem with the ABC here in Australia. Gender issues, support of the Labor party ( who just lost the general election despite their support for it) , climate change, biased reporting etc. Like you say not to be trusted.

I wouldn't mind, but we pay for them via the licence fee. We don't pay for them to display manifest left wing political bias as though they speak for everyone who holds a licence. That's wrong on every level. 

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3 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

Can anybody find the stats showing the actual number of votes cast in the UK for each party?

I've searched and searched and come up with zilch. All I can find is percentages, which I'm not certain I trust without the precise figures to back them up.

I say that because someone said that based on actual votes cast, it was still 52% to 48% in favour of leave.  

image.png.990de668504cddeb366aa7da232095e0.png

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Looks like the Brexit party picked up a large amount of the original leave vote. Overall it looks like the result of the original referendum has not changed and still represents a majority to leave .The major change is the fall in the Tory party vote who are presently occupying the government bench. I'm sure this fact will sharpen the focus of those frustrating this process if they want to stay there. I think their only choice, given the intransigence of the EU  is a no deal Brexit if the Tory MPs want to keep their jobs. Any reneging on Brexit is political suicide.

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I am afraid that the raw party vote numbers mean nothing when it comes to a further referendum. Labour are not in the above chart, presumably because despite their declared policy being to leave with an “agreement” (essentially no actual change from the current relationship but to lose voting rights) in reality their actual policy is to do whatever it takes to force a general election. In a referendum a significant number of Labour voters , perhaps a third , would vote to leave, as would a smaller proportion of Liberals, Greens, SNP etc, etc. and likewise a small percent of the Conservative , DUP etc voters would select remain.  The only voters that would near unanimously support their parties declared policy are Brexit, UKIP,  and perhaps the ‘English Democrats ‘.  

Professor Curtis had it right when he declared that Britain remains split down the middle, that there is no evidence voting intentions have changed and that only a fool would demand a further referendum anticipating a particular result. 

All the spin is simply designed to make us dizzy.

Jerry

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You don't get it you've had the referendum. It's time to implement it. Three years is too long to be stuffing around like chooks with their heads off only succeeding to make your country laughing stock. Even your friends in Australia are shaking their heads in disbelief.

Edited by ozjohn
More info

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2 hours ago, Nick said:

image.png.990de668504cddeb366aa7da232095e0.png

Thanks - that vindicates what I thought. 

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