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So, Brexit....What's happening?

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

It's a ludicrous accusation anyway, which, in line with much of the tripe spouted these days, makes zero logical sense.

I'd say it was an attempt by the hard left to paint all brexiters in a certain light - you know the same old tired score, white, middle aged/elderly and male, with extreme right wing views, racist and of low intelligence. A lazy caricature so idiotic as to be unworthy of even the Beano.   

I honestly thought I had done a debxite and can leave this tread in peace. But I have to say this. If you think Chris is somehow guilty of some generalisation and stereotyping, aren't you also a little guilty of the same by your post above? 

I was really annoyed when the first referendum was called. I knew almost straight away the issues were so numerous and so complicated and I wouldn't be able to make an informed decision. The arguments and informaion you get in the media for Leave  (from Bojo and others) and Remain (Project Fear) were obviously biased in the extreme, very incomplete and of questionable reliability. But no one had the time to do years of research and even then that would not be enough.

I voted Remain for a simple reason. Leave will give us a decade of pain as a certainty. Nobody knows if we would  be better of in say 30 years time. So why take the big punishment without certain gain? Even if Leave can be theoretically better in the long run, will we have the right type of politicans to realise its potential? People like BoJo and the "back stabbing" Mr Gove? I think not.

You can of course argue that I am a simpleton and the average person is capable of making a more informed choice. But I will say this: there are no true expert when it comes to Brexit. For example, how many MPs or cabinet ministers foresaw that the Irish boarder would be such a big headache? Brexit is something unprecedented and people will have to find things out as the negotiations progress. Then again, I think I am probably not a simpleton and have been very fortunate to have received a privileged education (on a full grant and hence at the expense of the state). Hence I think it was wrong to hold that referendum as so many were not able to make fully informed choices. Some voted with their hearts, some with their guts and some on misconceptions or bad propaganda.

This long trainsition period is bringing out the worse in everyone. People become suspicious and distrustful of others (prehaps even their friends) for not sharing their views. The division in the country might not heal in this generation. I think Cameron called the  referendum to unite the Conservatives but it has only ended up dividing the nation deeply.

Now I will make my debxite or debate exit. (At least for as long as I can resist)

 

 

Edited by Sword

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46 minutes ago, Sword said:

You can of course argue that I am a simpleton and the average person is capable of making a more informed choice. But I will say this: there are no true expert when it comes to Brexit.

I am no expert, nor do I claim to be.  I do not know whether the country will be richer or poorer and I don't care.  Democracy means that whatever the people decides is what happens.  If that can be overruled then we are little more than a banana republic.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sword said:

I honestly thought I had done a debxite and can leave this tread in peace. But I have to say this. If you think Chris is somehow guilty of some generalisation and stereotyping, aren't you also a little guilty of the same by your post above? 

I was really annoyed when the first referendum was called. I knew almost straight away the issues were so numerous and so complicated and I wouldn't be able to make an informed decision. The arguments and informaion you get in the media for Leave  (from Bojo and others) and Remain (Project Fear) were obviously biased in the extreme, very incomplete and of questionable reliability. But no one had the time to do years of research and even then that would not be enough.

I voted Remain for a simple reason. Leave will give us a decade of pain as a certainty. Nobody knows if we would  be better of in say 30 years time. So why take the big punishment without certain gain? Even if Leave can be theoretically better in the long run, will we have the right type of politicans to realise its potential? People like BoJo and the "back stabbing" Mr Gove? I think not.

You can of course argue that I am a simpleton and the average person is capable of making a more informed choice. But I will say this: there are no true expert when it comes to Brexit. For example, how many MPs or cabinet ministers foresaw that the Irish boarder would be such a big headache? Brexit is something unprecedented and people will have to find things out as the negotiations progress. Then again, I think I am probably not a simpleton and have been very fortunate to have received a privileged education (on a full grant and hence at the expense of the state). Hence I think it was wrong to hold that referendum as so many were not able to make fully informed choices. Some voted with their hearts, some with their guts and some on misconceptions or bad propaganda.

This long trainsition period is bringing out the worse in everyone. People become suspicious and distrustful of others (prehaps even their friends) for not sharing their views. The division in the country might not heal in this generation. I think Cameron called the  referendum to unite the Conservatives but it has only ended up dividing the nation deeply.

Now I will make my debxite or debate exit. (At least for as long as I can resist)

 

 

No. I'm not referring to Chris or indeed to the vast majority of remain voters. Most people who voted remain would bow to the majority will. Such is the basis of democracy. I'm referring to a certain cohort on the left in this country, who almost from Day 1 of the referendum result, have persistently referred to leave voters in very derogatory terms. Intellectually challenged, typically. But also add on racist, extreme right wing, fascist scum etc etc. Not nice, extremely provocative, and definitely not accurate for the overwhelming majority.

Surely you must have noticed?

I'm not guilty of the same as I'm giving my opinion of their ideas, not of the people themselves, who I know nothing about. I make no pretence about that, unlike them, who claim to know the collective IQ of the 17.4 million leave voters.

100% agree with your last paragraph.  

Edited by 1949threepence
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Nick said:

I am no expert, nor do I claim to be.  I do not know whether the country will be richer or poorer and I don't care.  Democracy means that whatever the people decides is what happens.  If that can be overruled then we are little more than a banana republic.

True democracy is when people are allowed to make informed choices. Imagine asking people to choose between a pile of sealed envelopes Politician A is holding and another pile of sealed envelopes Politician B is holding. ( OK, it was not exactly like that but there is some truth in this analogy). Are people not allowed to change their minds after a few of the envelopes have been opened? Is that undemocratic? Was it real democracy in the first place? 

Does the population today really prefer no deal Brexit or soft Brexit or Staying in? No one knows. Leave can mean different things to different people. Some voted for Brexit believing that they will get advantages of both worlds and believed we will be definitely better off. Might be enough of them have already changed their minds.

A second referendum is not less undemocratic than the first as people are now better informed. The situation now is sufficiently different than the projections made in 2016.

Edited by Sword

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1 hour ago, 1949threepence said:

No. I'm not referring to Chris or indeed to the vast majority of remain voters. Most people who voted remain would bow to the majority will. Such is the basis of democracy. I'm referring to a certain cohort on the left in this country, who almost from Day 1 of the referendum result, have persistently referred to leave voters in very derogatory terms. Intellectually challenged, typically. But also add on racist, extreme right wing, fascist scum etc etc. Not nice, extremely provocative, and definitely not accurate for the overwhelming majority.

Surely you must have noticed?

Mike, I should have worded my post differently. 

But by saying the it was an attempt by the "hard left" to paint all the Brexiteers... , the thought which came to mind was that not everyone in the "hard left" have been doing that. If I am a member of the hard left (which I assume include Corbyn and his pals), I would be offended to read that. (I myself am definitely not hard left!!).

To  be honest, I haven't noticed, which probably sounds a bit naive. I guess I just don't want to chat with people with such extreme views.

 

 

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People are unquestionably allowed to change their opinions, but the problem with having one referendum after another which could quite conceivably go either way on any occasion is that you can never expect any stability. We have already seen the uncertainty associated with a change of direction, and could expect no difference second time around. People understandably only want a referendum when their preferred option is not the likely outcome. C'est la vie.

I'm not opposed to reviewing the status quo for suitability and indeed think it should have been incumbent on whatever government was in power to have a mandatory review after a certain period of time, but would hesitate to have these more than once every decade or two. FWIW, in my view this discussion and referendum should have taken place in 1992 before signing the Maastrict Treaty, or alternatively prior to Lisbon when the EU made the largest moves to date towards a federal Europe.

In 2016, with the probable exception of the Lib Dems or possibly the SNP (who have a different agenda), people voted the way they did not because of political ideology, but because they felt the system was or wasn't working for them. People had various reasons for arriving at the choice they made, but those reasons varied from one region to another and it cuts across all parties. The odd person has changed their mind, but that also includes remainers who believe the result should be upheld. I don't hear a sea change in opinion from the majority of people I talk to. There seems to be an automatic assumption that many people who voted leave will have changed their mind and 'come to their senses' because someone has belatedly pointed out a few stumbling blocks. The arrogance hasn't gone away and nor have the reasons people voted to leave.

The majority of people I know who voted leave were prepared to accept a bumpy ride

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13 hours ago, Sword said:

True democracy is when people are allowed to make informed choices. Imagine asking people to choose between a pile of sealed envelopes Politician A is holding and another pile of sealed envelopes Politician B is holding. ( OK, it was not exactly like that but there is some truth in this analogy). Are people not allowed to change their minds after a few of the envelopes have been opened? Is that undemocratic? Was it real democracy in the first place? 

Does the population today really prefer no deal Brexit or soft Brexit or Staying in? No one knows. Leave can mean different things to different people. Some voted for Brexit believing that they will get advantages of both worlds and believed we will be definitely better off. Might be enough of them have already changed their minds.

A second referendum is not less undemocratic than the first as people are now better informed. The situation now is sufficiently different than the projections made in 2016.

Is that any different to parties holding up manifestos for election only to not carry out the promises contained within, or the future direction the EU is heading? They may as well be blank envelopes because no-one knows for certain where we are headed.

I wonder whether the same view would have been considered if we had remained, the EU is ever changing, would you have endorsed a referendum every few years on whether we want to continue with our membership because we would be more informed about the EU relationship every few years? 

The reason why anyone chooses to vote in a particular way is of no importance to anyone other than the individual voting. My vote carries no more weight than any other individual and if their reason for choosing to leave or remain was completely based on nothing more than them ticking a box at the last minute on the flip of a coin in the booth, I would have no issue with that. It is their prerogative

Surely true democracy is being given a choice by representatives and then those representatives delivering the choice that received the majority of votes. I agree that being informed is a sensible thing to do, but do you really expect everyone to be informed or even care about the decision that is being made. I expect a good proportion of voting in general elections is done by nothing more than choosing a least favourite party, or a tribal alliance to a particular party, this does not seem to be people making well informed judgements either. The system is not perfect but at least everyone has the feeling that they have an input into the system.

 

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23 minutes ago, terrysoldpennies said:

I'm no lawyer, but it sounds like a fair point, worthy of consideration.

Or to look at it from a slightly different angle - if we had left on 29th March without a deal, nobody could have said that democratic principles had not been scrupulously observed. Parliament were unable to endorse the deal, so we leave without one, in accordance with the democratic will of the electorate.   

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19 minutes ago, Colin G. said:

Is that any different to parties holding up manifestos for election only to not carry out the promises contained within, or the future direction the EU is heading? They may as well be blank envelopes because no-one knows for certain where we are headed.

I wonder whether the same view would have been considered if we had remained, the EU is ever changing, would you have endorsed a referendum every few years on whether we want to continue with our membership because we would be more informed about the EU relationship every few years? 

The reason why anyone chooses to vote in a particular way is of no importance to anyone other than the individual voting. My vote carries no more weight than any other individual and if their reason for choosing to leave or remain was completely based on nothing more than them ticking a box at the last minute on the flip of a coin in the booth, I would have no issue with that. It is their prerogative

Surely true democracy is being given a choice by representatives and then those representatives delivering the choice that received the majority of votes. I agree that being informed is a sensible thing to do, but do you really expect everyone to be informed or even care about the decision that is being made. I expect a good proportion of voting in general elections is done by nothing more than choosing a least favourite party, or a tribal alliance to a particular party, this does not seem to be people making well informed judgements either. The system is not perfect but at least everyone has the feeling that they have an input into the system.

 

This business of 'not knowing' what we voted for is a very disingenuous argument. Firstly, without undertaking the negotiations in advance there was no way in which the position we are in today could have been predicted with sufficient accuracy for us to have made an 'informed' decision. In other words there's no way we could have had all the information to make an 'informed' decision.

What we did have, and is conveniently forgotten by all those who make this argument is the 'leaflet' from the government. Take a careful look at that and it is very clear that the pros and cons of leaving were laid out, as were the risks. No mention of the Irish border, but otherwise there was enough in there to allow anybody to make as informed a decision as they could with the knowledge available at the time.

The other item of interest is on the last but one page, where it says in plain English 'This is your decision. The Government will implement what you decide.'

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Well, shit just got real, just dropped through the door

983B84E9-579B-4C57-B180-97546A06DD61.JPG

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Colin G said " Surely true democracy is being given a choice by representatives and then those representatives delivering the choice that received the majority of votes. "

We do not have a house of representatives here in the UK. It's government that makes the laws, parliment only supplies oversite.

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22 minutes ago, Gary D said:

Colin G said " Surely true democracy is being given a choice by representatives and then those representatives delivering the choice that received the majority of votes. "

We do not have a house of representatives here in the UK. It's government that makes the laws, parliment only supplies oversite.

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/system/

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When you think about it, if Corbyn facilitates a soft deal going through, then he will look like the saviour, and May will have played right into his hands - whether by default or otherwise.  

I thought Rees-Mogg was at least an intelligent guy, but listening to what he said today about deliberately trying to sabotage EU initiatives if we do stand in the EU elections, I couldn't help thinking he was a bit of an idiot. Especially as he and his ilk have blown it as far as the original deal was concerned, which could have gone though to the relative satisfaction of the public, and possibly blown it for the conservative party as well  

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25 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

When you think about it, if Corbyn facilitates a soft deal going through, then he will look like the saviour, and May will have played right into his hands - whether by default or otherwise. 

Not necessarily.  If Corbyn makes for a softer Brexit, then leavers will blame him (and Labour) for the Customs Union which stops us negotiating trade deals.  I can't imagine that many Labour supporters would be particularly happy to have helped the Tories get their flagship policy through the Commons.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

I thought Rees-Mogg was at least an intelligent guy, but listening to what he said today about deliberately trying to sabotage EU initiatives if we do stand in the EU elections, I couldn't help thinking he was a bit of an idiot. Especially as he and his ilk have blown it as far as the original deal was concerned, which could have gone though to the relative satisfaction of the public, and possibly blown it for the conservative party as well  

I think he was just letting them know that if we are forced to take part in EU elections after we should have left, then those elected MEPs are likely to be mostly hostile to the EU.

Not sure where this relatively satisfied public is either.  Most people I speak to are pretty f&@king annoyed.

Edited by Nick

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On 4 April 2019 at 4:46 PM, jelida said:

Where has this come from, Chris? I actually quote you as saying ‘dispossessed ‘ in my first paragraph. Unless in quotes, the rest of the missive is in my words,  and without knowing you I would never accuse you of being one of those who consider leave voters being somehow less than intelligent and  rational. But I have heard it said by remainers that I know, who feel a leave vote is somehow less valid than a remain vote, by the nature of the people who voted that way. I of course would never make such a blanket accusation. Though I have of course noted that remain voters arguments overwhelmingly revolve around anxieties over national and personal wealth, ie economy and trade, and far less about the right of the majority to make decisions, for better or for worse, which is of course what happens at every general election.🤐

Jerry

It came from this, towards the end of your first paragraph :

"You seem  to deny the “working classes” the ability to come to the same reasoned decisions with the same access to media as the rest of us, which ever way the individual verdict was. It seems a popular remainer conception that the outcome of the referendum was determined by a protest vote by the ignorant, despite the “working classes” having exactly the same average IQ as the rest of the population."

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32 minutes ago, Nick said:

Not necessarily.  If Corbyn makes for a softer Brexit, then leavers will blame him (and Labour) for the Customs Union which stops us negotiating trade deals.  I can't imagine that many Labour supporters would be particularly happy to have helped the Tories get their flagship policy through the Commons.

I think it goes way beyond party politics. The public (on both sides) just want to see completion and an end to this farce. If Corbyn can be instrumental in achieving that, then he is likely to get kudos. Don;t forget a very sizeable chunk of Labour voters also voted leave.  

28 minutes ago, Nick said:

I think he was just letting them know that if we are forced to take part in EU elections after we should have left, then those elected MEPs are likely to be mostly hostile to the EU.

Not sure where this relatively satisfied public is either.  Most people I speak to are pretty f&@king annoyed.

They're not satisfied at the moment, but they would have been if the deal had gone through and we were purring along towards a smooth brexit in 2020. 

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1 minute ago, 1949threepence said:

They're not satisfied at the moment, but they would have been if the deal had gone through and we were purring along towards a smooth brexit in 2020. 

I still don't see it that way.  You seem to be suggesting that most people like TM's deal, but most opinion polls I've seen give it a very low approval rate.

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7 minutes ago, Nick said:

I still don't see it that way.  You seem to be suggesting that most people like TM's deal, but most opinion polls I've seen give it a very low approval rate.

Most people are saying "get on with it". They want closure, and I'd lay odds that the majority would have accepted May's deal as a reasonable compromise if it had gone through. At least we'd all see a way forward, and it would be delivering brexit. Albeit, not in its purest form.   

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Peckris 2 said:

It came from this, towards the end of your first paragraph :

"You seem  to deny the “working classes” the ability to come to the same reasoned decisions with the same access to media as the rest of us, which ever way the individual verdict was. It seems a popular remainer conception that the outcome of the referendum was determined by a protest vote by the ignorant, despite the “working classes” having exactly the same average IQ as the rest of the population."

Chris, that is a separate sentence moving on to another point, and not quoting you, but referring to a “popular remainer conception” ie numbers of people that I, as others posting, have heard clearly expressing these sorts of ridiculous views. Do I detect a hint of paranoia here? You have chosen to mis-interpret my comments, and then wilfully ignore my previous rebuttal. At no stage was I quoting you as  calling leave voters ignorant, and I pointed that out above. However my first comment that you hi-light  does refer to your written tendency to put the ‘working class’ leave vote down to general dissatisfaction with government of all parties,  and the desire to give them a bloody nose, rather than being a rational decision , based on intellect (the same, on average, as remain voters) and available information (also the same access to the media ) in the background of their real life experiences (job security, immigration pressures on services, housing etc as mentioned before). That is my criticism,  the point I made and have just repeated, though the reasons people vote in a certain way are of course multifactorial,  and it is perhaps not wise for me to state why a remain voter should vote that way, though I might have more empathy with and understanding of the motivations of a leave voter. 

Jerry

Edited by jelida

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2 hours ago, jelida said:

Chris, that is a separate sentence moving on to another point, and not quoting you, but referring to a “popular remainer conception” ie numbers of people that I, as others posting, have heard clearly expressing these sorts of ridiculous views. Do I detect a hint of paranoia here? You have chosen to mis-interpret my comments, and then wilfully ignore my previous rebuttal. At no stage was I quoting you as  calling leave voters ignorant, and I pointed that out above. However my first comment that you hi-light  does refer to your written tendency to put the ‘working class’ leave vote down to general dissatisfaction with government of all parties,  and the desire to give them a bloody nose, rather than being a rational decision , based on intellect (the same, on average, as remain voters) and available information (also the same access to the media ) in the background of their real life experiences (job security, immigration pressures on services, housing etc as mentioned before). That is my criticism,  the point I made and have just repeated, though the reasons people vote in a certain way are of course multifactorial,  and it is perhaps not wise for me to state why a remain voter should vote that way, though I might have more empathy with and understanding of the motivations of a leave voter. 

Jerry

"You seem to deny..." is quite clear. No paranoia here. No misinterpretation. It's why I wondered what your "rebuttal" meant as it then got contradicted. Maybe it was clumsy wording on your part? In which case you could understand any misinterpretation which - if it existed  - was not wilful at all.

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On 4/3/2019 at 10:56 PM, Peckris 2 said:
  On 4/3/2019 at 12:09 AM, jelida said:

But why put it off? Cameron was on a high, having just had a reasonable victory in the General Election. He , like most cosmopolitan south easterners,  had no concept of the dissatisfaction of the majority with the machinations of the EU and despite having just been shafted in his attempt to get concessions from the EU he had put a gloss on the outcome that he thought the population would swallow. There did not seem to be any advantage in delaying, and nor would there have been. The target of settling the EU issue within his party was understandably irresistible. And the chattering and political classes knew a remain victory was inevitable. What he, like many, did not realise is that national wealth and economic success is less important to the psyche of most of the population of the country than perceptions of housing and work competition from working class Eastern European immigration. Almost un-mentioned in the debate also were issues of national sovereignty, self determination and democracy  which in the absence of the concern for the international economic arguments are felt very strongly amongst rural and working class communities. I think that despite the parliamentary debacle very little has changed, the polls give a remain majority of exactly the same level as the day before the referendum (10% according to the net) and we know where that led us. Cameron did not have a crystal ball (or possibly any balls at all as it turned out) but his decision will have seemed entirely logical.

No. The dispossessed working class northerners were about thumbing their noses at the Westminster elite, which is what many Leave votes were about. 

Your words not mine. The 'No' that you commence your response with would suggest that you deny the very real  issues that the 'working classes' might have experienced that led them to make an intelligent and reasoned decision, which is in the main the subject of  the paragraph you quote. Instead you state that many of the leave votes were in fact due to the desire to 'thumb their noses'. While I accept, as I always have, that there may be a small minority feeling that way,  I would never disregard the logic and intellect of the rest as your statement implies.  Maybe it was clumsy wording on your part?
However, in respect to you, I was not prepared to accuse you of being one of those who propose that the leave vote was  ' a protest vote by the ignorant , as I stated, quote  ' I would never accuse you of being one of those who consider leave voters being somehow less than intelligent and  rational.'  You take offence to this too. If not paranoia (and that is not a serious suggestion) then maybe misinterpretation? 
Jerry

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18 hours ago, DaveG38 said:

 

No mention of the Irish border

That's of course just a trivial issue and can be hidden under some great red bus.

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28 minutes ago, Sword said:

That's of course just a trivial issue and can be hidden under some great red bus.

The almighty Merkel said this week on her visit to Ireland that even under a no-deal scenario there will be no hard border because any checks necessary will be done away from the border.  This might sound familiar as it was suggested by the UK as a solution, but was rejected out of hand by the EU.  Talk about negotiating in bad faith.

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