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So, Brexit....What's happening?

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6 minutes ago, Peckris 2 said:

 

It's the only way I can prevent myself screaming out loud.

Understandable.

If there is a general election, imminently, I won't even bother voting. Parliament has absolutely shafted the country (both sides). I'd lay odds that many others feel the same as me. 

If there's a second referendum, you can absolutely guarantee that they won't even reach agreement on the sodding question framework.

     

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2 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

If there is a general election, imminently, I won't even bother voting. Parliament has absolutely shafted the country (both sides). I'd lay odds that many others feel the same as me. 

If there's a second referendum, you can absolutely guarantee that they won't even reach agreement on the sodding question framework.     

That's where we must disagree. May's deal was never going to satisfy the ERG/DUP (who want a hard Brexit, come what may), or Remainers who see it's worse than not leaving at all. Therefore it was voted down - that's (our) democracy!

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27 minutes ago, Peckris 2 said:

That's where we must disagree. May's deal was never going to satisfy the ERG/DUP (who want a hard Brexit, come what may), or Remainers who see it's worse than not leaving at all. Therefore it was voted down - that's (our) democracy!

Parliament has shafted the country because they can't agree on anything. As the can has continually been kicked down the road, business is suffering, we are likely to see further transfers of business elsewhere, with consequential loss of employment, and the constant all pervading uncertainty which we are all enduring at the moment.    

May's deal isn't perfect, but life rarely is. It's all we're going to get from the EU. Although I suspect that many MP's, ministers and shadow ministers thought they would eventually dance to our tune. Arrogant beyond all belief.   

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May's deal splits the UK into two parts. N Ireland staying in the EU while the rest sort of leaves. This was always going to be unacceptable. No deal may have some short term economic risk but the UK can trade under WTO rules which Australia does with the EU. The advantage of a no deal is the UK is free to go it's own way.  Delay all this does is kick the can down the road. Maybe a general election could resolve the  N Ireland issue but I doubt it the opposition to it crossed party lines. A second referendum ? Who knows what the words will be and no guarantee that it will resolve anything.

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The country had a majority in favour of leave. Once parliament, containing a majority of MPs who want to remain (or want to form the next government), voted to have the final say, it was only ever going to end one way - Remain. What's in doubt are the exact hoops everyone has to jump through until the decision to remain emerges.

There is clearly no point in ever again holding a national referendum.

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1 hour ago, 1949threepence said:

Parliament has shafted the country because they can't agree on anything. As the can has continually been kicked down the road, business is suffering, we are likely to see further transfers of business elsewhere, with consequential loss of employment, and the constant all pervading uncertainty which we are all enduring at the moment.    

May's deal isn't perfect, but life rarely is. It's all we're going to get from the EU. Although I suspect that many MP's, ministers and shadow ministers thought they would eventually dance to our tune. Arrogant beyond all belief.   

The EU have given as much as they can. After all, it was us who voted to leave, what were they going to do?

Yes, business is suffering, but Labour's proposal for Brexit was accepted in principle by the EU, but May just refused to listen to anyone. So, it's all come back to bite her. Tomorrow Parliament will probably vote to reject No Deal, and where we go from there is anyone's guess. 

We will leave, that much is clear, though we will suffer as a nation as a result. But how, when, and on what basis, is all to play for. It's no use blaming the EU though - they don't want No Deal any more than we do, but have offered as much as they can. The Irish backstop was always going to be trickiest part of the whole thing. 

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The arrogance of politicians was at its highest before the referendum when they didn't bother to make a case for remaining, thinking that the public would simply do as they recommended. After all, if 80% of MPs say remain, then there is clearly no point in pressing the case. And yes, they didn't bother to canvas public opinion before the vote, relying on the sheep to deliver their wishes.

The EU liked Labour's idea for the simple reason that it means we would be tied to them indefinitely, having to adopt every ruling they make and accordingly would have left in name only whilst still leaving us to pick up the bill, without a say.

Have a second referendum and Parliament could probably only offer the single option of 'tick here to remain', with them having voted to reject no deal which was the only other viable option. We should not underestimate politicians' contempt for public opinion. People on all sides of the divide(s) have rightly become very cynical of anything MPs say or do.

The question of what happens next and its timing is moot. As it stands we leave on the 29th, but even a negotiated extension to article 50 won't satisfy the remainers because we will still have passed the cut-off date to rescind it. There might have been an EU ruling that we could rescind the decision unilaterally, but that would surely expire on departure day. Irrespective of views on whether it is right or wrong, a second referendum would therefore only be of any use if the legislation had already been repealed. Otherwise, we would have to re-apply to join the EU with the attendant problems of having to join the Euro as a new member, sign up to Schengen, pay even more per month to a system that would give us little in return, not to mention the views of various member countries as to whether they would want us back in. Joining the Eurozone would merely cement our position of weakness given the overwhelmingly strong position into which Germany is locked via the Euro exchange rate. One thing is certain, they wouldn't let us join the Euro at a rate 10% below the status quo. I can see Germany welcoming us back as another net contributor, but French opinion might not be so favourable as they stand to increase their political clout following our departure. Ireland aside, I think most member states would be indifferent to our remaining as they have little to lose if Germany picks up the tab - quite affordable given its trade balance. I also think the EU would be very reluctant to offer us anything in the way of EU infrastructure in case we decided to leave again. All in all, we are still better off leaving than being tied up in a straitjacket at the whims of the other 27.

On the plus side for the EU, I read today that the woman replacing Merkel had suggested they stop relocating the circus to Strasbourg every month and remain in Brussels permanently. Cue French disagreement (for which read hurt pride) - yet hypocritically claim to be pressing for improved environmental pollution targets despite the unnecessary mass movements from monthly relocation. She also suggested that EU officials should be put on the same tax basis as the rest of the population - perish the thought. Maybe the EU's core is having a few internal rumblings. Shame it's too late.

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2 hours ago, Rob said:

The arrogance of politicians was at its highest before the referendum when they didn't bother to make a case for remaining, thinking that the public would simply do as they recommended. After all, if 80% of MPs say remain, then there is clearly no point in pressing the case. And yes, they didn't bother to canvas public opinion before the vote, relying on the sheep to deliver their wishes.

The EU liked Labour's idea for the simple reason that it means we would be tied to them indefinitely, having to adopt every ruling they make and accordingly would have left in name only whilst still leaving us to pick up the bill, without a say.

Have a second referendum and Parliament could probably only offer the single option of 'tick here to remain', with them having voted to reject no deal which was the only other viable option. We should not underestimate politicians' contempt for public opinion. People on all sides of the divide(s) have rightly become very cynical of anything MPs say or do.

The question of what happens next and its timing is moot. As it stands we leave on the 29th, but even a negotiated extension to article 50 won't satisfy the remainers because we will still have passed the cut-off date to rescind it. There might have been an EU ruling that we could rescind the decision unilaterally, but that would surely expire on departure day. Irrespective of views on whether it is right or wrong, a second referendum would therefore only be of any use if the legislation had already been repealed. Otherwise, we would have to re-apply to join the EU with the attendant problems of having to join the Euro as a new member, sign up to Schengen, pay even more per month to a system that would give us little in return, not to mention the views of various member countries as to whether they would want us back in. Joining the Eurozone would merely cement our position of weakness given the overwhelmingly strong position into which Germany is locked via the Euro exchange rate. One thing is certain, they wouldn't let us join the Euro at a rate 10% below the status quo. I can see Germany welcoming us back as another net contributor, but French opinion might not be so favourable as they stand to increase their political clout following our departure. Ireland aside, I think most member states would be indifferent to our remaining as they have little to lose if Germany picks up the tab - quite affordable given its trade balance. I also think the EU would be very reluctant to offer us anything in the way of EU infrastructure in case we decided to leave again. All in all, we are still better off leaving than being tied up in a straitjacket at the whims of the other 27.

On the plus side for the EU, I read today that the woman replacing Merkel had suggested they stop relocating the circus to Strasbourg every month and remain in Brussels permanently. Cue French disagreement (for which read hurt pride) - yet hypocritically claim to be pressing for improved environmental pollution targets despite the unnecessary mass movements from monthly relocation. She also suggested that EU officials should be put on the same tax basis as the rest of the population - perish the thought. Maybe the EU's core is having a few internal rumblings. Shame it's too late.

Very well put Rob. Reading between the lines and given that May's deal was un acceptable the UK ha only two real options if Article 50 cannot be rescinded. These are leave with no deal or  go back to the EU and rejoin  on much worse terms than exist now. As you say any extension is really living on borrowed time. and hands the EU the opportunity to tighten the screws even further. As an outside chance a general election that delivers to the government an overwhelming result to leave may shift the EU but somehow I doubt it.

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15 hours ago, Rob said:

The arrogance of politicians was at its highest before the referendum when they didn't bother to make a case for remaining

Agreed

, thinking that the public would simply do as they recommended. After all, if 80% of MPs say remain, then there is clearly no point in pressing the case. And yes, they didn't bother to canvas public opinion before the vote, relying on the sheep to deliver their wishes.

Not so - the polls were narrowly for Remain

The EU liked Labour's idea for the simple reason that it means we would be tied to them indefinitely, having to adopt every ruling they make and accordingly would have left in name only whilst still leaving us to pick up the bill, without a say.

Again - not so. Labour would have negotiated some sort of customs union (which by the way, we need to have), though it is entirely unclear WHAT sort of CU and whether the EU would have accepted it; it's rather late in the day for May to start talking to Labour, and lo and behold, she hasn't .

Have a second referendum and Parliament could probably only offer the single option of 'tick here to remain', with them having voted to reject no deal which was the only other viable option. We should not underestimate politicians' contempt for public opinion. People on all sides of the divide(s) have rightly become very cynical of anything MPs say or do.

May's deal has been rejected by Parliament (as will No Deal tonight, probably), but not by the people. If there was a second referendum, it should be 1. May's deal 2. No Deal 3. Remain.

The question of what happens next and its timing is moot. As it stands we leave on the 29th, but even a negotiated extension to article 50 won't satisfy the remainers because we will still have passed the cut-off date to rescind it. There might have been an EU ruling that we could rescind the decision unilaterally, but that would surely expire on departure day. Irrespective of views on whether it is right or wrong, a second referendum would therefore only be of any use if the legislation had already been repealed. Otherwise, we would have to re-apply to join the EU with the attendant problems of having to join the Euro as a new member, sign up to Schengen, pay even more per month to a system that would give us little in return, not to mention the views of various member countries as to whether they would want us back in. Joining the Eurozone would merely cement our position of weakness given the overwhelmingly strong position into which Germany is locked via the Euro exchange rate. One thing is certain, they wouldn't let us join the Euro at a rate 10% below the status quo. I can see Germany welcoming us back as another net contributor, but French opinion might not be so favourable as they stand to increase their political clout following our departure. Ireland aside, I think most member states would be indifferent to our remaining as they have little to lose if Germany picks up the tab - quite affordable given its trade balance. I also think the EU would be very reluctant to offer us anything in the way of EU infrastructure in case we decided to leave again. All in all, we are still better off leaving than being tied up in a straitjacket at the whims of the other 27.  

We never were in a "straitjacket" - that's a pure Daily Mail-ism. The way you've outlined things here is an argument for not leaving at all, but to remain in our current "2/3 in, 1/3 not in" position. If we reapplied, we would have to accept full membership, as you say.

 

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, secret santa said:

The country had a majority in favour of leave. Once parliament, containing a majority of MPs who want to remain (or want to form the next government), voted to have the final say, it was only ever going to end one way - Remain. What's in doubt are the exact hoops everyone has to jump through until the decision to remain emerges.

There is clearly no point in ever again holding a national referendum.

Yep, democratic principles have been sold down the river, and the wishes of the electorate, trashed.  

In fairness to May, she has worked tirelessly to push Brexit through, but has sadly failed due to treacherous elements in her own party, the intransigent bigoted DUP, and the Labour party.  

Corbyn full well knows that there is nothing in the current deal which Labour disagrees with, yet he deliberately goes against it as he puts his own self interest ahead of the country's. The more I see of this guy, the more I dislike him. He's also a proven liar as he did mouth "stupid woman" in December, If he'd said "people" his lips would have touched twice, and they only touched once.   

Incidentally, an extension to article 50 is not a foregone conclusion. May will have to go back to the EU, cap in hand, to request beg for this, and they are likely to exact a heavy humiliating price for us to get it.  

 

Edited by 1949threepence

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2 hours ago, Peckris 2 said:

May's deal has been rejected by Parliament (as will No Deal tonight, probably), but not by the people. If there was a second referendum, it should be 1. May's deal 2. No Deal 3. Remain.

That gives remain an unfair advantage. If you include remain in a second referendum, then the remain vote from 2016 will be broadly the same, but the leave vote will be split between the other two options. 

Given that we've already voted by a majority to leave, it should be two options only. The deal or leave with no deal.  

 

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1 minute ago, 1949threepence said:

That gives remain an unfair advantage. If you include remain in a second referendum, then the remain vote from 2016 will be broadly the same, but the leave vote will be split between the other two options. 

Given that we've already voted by a majority to leave, it should be two options only. The deal or leave with no deal.  

Not so. A number of Remain supporters have said they would nevertheless stand by the result of the first referendum. Those would presumably vote for May's deal. Any voting split is a complete unknown.

At any rate, they've just voted to reject No Deal, thank goodness - which should hopefully silence many of those who simply hate the EU so much they are  willing to pay ANY price to leave.

I don't think the EU would exact a heavy price - I simply cannot understand the people who think the EU are headed by petty malevolents who aim to punish us. In any case, an extension has to be agreed by all the other 27 member states. The EU doesn't want No Deal, but looking at it from their point of view, they've fixed up a deal after WE decided to leave and now that Parliament has rejected it (twice) they have no option but to throw it back at us and ask us "Well, what DO you want? When you decide then come back and let us know."

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26 minutes ago, Peckris 2 said:

Not so. A number of Remain supporters have said they would nevertheless stand by the result of the first referendum. Those would presumably vote for May's deal. Any voting split is a complete unknown.

At any rate, they've just voted to reject No Deal, thank goodness - which should hopefully silence many of those who simply hate the EU so much they are  willing to pay ANY price to leave.

I don't think the EU would exact a heavy price - I simply cannot understand the people who think the EU are headed by petty malevolents who aim to punish us. In any case, an extension has to be agreed by all the other 27 member states. The EU doesn't want No Deal, but looking at it from their point of view, they've fixed up a deal after WE decided to leave and now that Parliament has rejected it (twice) they have no option but to throw it back at us and ask us "Well, what DO you want? When you decide then come back and let us know."

I'll come back to you later. Right now I've turned over from the news to watch the Bayern - Liverpool Champions League match  ;) 

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1 minute ago, 1949threepence said:

I'll come back to you later. Right now I've turned over from the news to watch the Bayern - Liverpool Champions League match  ;) 

Lucky you! I'm listening on 5Live Extra!

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Parliament has just sold the electorate down the river. This is probably the last opportunity we will have to get out of the EU with a clean break and there is now a real danger we will never escape from the EU. The MPs' message that we will never leave without a deal means they might now pass May's crap deal as the least bad option. When we will be served by a bunch of politicians who put this country first? Their decision increases the likelihood that our lives will be determined, probably in perpetuity by a bunch of people in Brussels who frankly couldn't give a s**t about this country.

Given Parliament's apparent collective desire to be ruled from Brussels, we can rest assured the no-deal will provide all the funding the EU wants, plus a bit more as a goodwill gesture. Needless to say we will have to pay heavily for the right to have no say, this despite effectively signing up to virtually all EU rules. The EU will be laughing all the way to the bank.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Peckris 2 said:
23 hours ago, Rob said:

The arrogance of politicians was at its highest before the referendum when they didn't bother to make a case for remaining

Agreed

, thinking that the public would simply do as they recommended. After all, if 80% of MPs say remain, then there is clearly no point in pressing the case. And yes, they didn't bother to canvas public opinion before the vote, relying on the sheep to deliver their wishes.

Not so - the polls were narrowly for Remain

The EU liked Labour's idea for the simple reason that it means we would be tied to them indefinitely, having to adopt every ruling they make and accordingly would have left in name only whilst still leaving us to pick up the bill, without a say.

Again - not so. Labour would have negotiated some sort of customs union (which by the way, we need to have), though it is entirely unclear WHAT sort of CU and whether the EU would have accepted it; it's rather late in the day for May to start talking to Labour, and lo and behold, she hasn't .

Have a second referendum and Parliament could probably only offer the single option of 'tick here to remain', with them having voted to reject no deal which was the only other viable option. We should not underestimate politicians' contempt for public opinion. People on all sides of the divide(s) have rightly become very cynical of anything MPs say or do.

May's deal has been rejected by Parliament (as will No Deal tonight, probably), but not by the people. If there was a second referendum, it should be 1. May's deal 2. No Deal 3. Remain.

The question of what happens next and its timing is moot. As it stands we leave on the 29th, but even a negotiated extension to article 50 won't satisfy the remainers because we will still have passed the cut-off date to rescind it. There might have been an EU ruling that we could rescind the decision unilaterally, but that would surely expire on departure day. Irrespective of views on whether it is right or wrong, a second referendum would therefore only be of any use if the legislation had already been repealed. Otherwise, we would have to re-apply to join the EU with the attendant problems of having to join the Euro as a new member, sign up to Schengen, pay even more per month to a system that would give us little in return, not to mention the views of various member countries as to whether they would want us back in. Joining the Eurozone would merely cement our position of weakness given the overwhelmingly strong position into which Germany is locked via the Euro exchange rate. One thing is certain, they wouldn't let us join the Euro at a rate 10% below the status quo. I can see Germany welcoming us back as another net contributor, but French opinion might not be so favourable as they stand to increase their political clout following our departure. Ireland aside, I think most member states would be indifferent to our remaining as they have little to lose if Germany picks up the tab - quite affordable given its trade balance. I also think the EU would be very reluctant to offer us anything in the way of EU infrastructure in case we decided to leave again. All in all, we are still better off leaving than being tied up in a straitjacket at the whims of the other 27.  

We never were in a "straitjacket" - that's a pure Daily Mail-ism. The way you've outlined things here is an argument for not leaving at all, but to remain in our current "2/3 in, 1/3 not in" position. If we reapplied, we would have to accept full membership, as you say.

 

 

 

I find this annotating and vetting of posts insulting. It is like you are not allowed to have an opinion.  Rob's opinion is just as valid as anyone else. If you disagree at least have the courtesy to write your verson rather than correct someone else's like a schoolmaster. I used Rob's post as an example as it was the most recent case but comments I have posted have been annotated in a similar way in the past.

Edited by ozjohn
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I am not sure that the Vote last night is legally binding, it would need to go through several processes to become enforceable.

The default position remains the same, we would leave on 29th March with or without a deal, unless an extension is agreed by the EU, as is written in law.

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14 hours ago, Peckris 2 said:

Not so. A number of Remain supporters have said they would nevertheless stand by the result of the first referendum. Those would presumably vote for May's deal. Any voting split is a complete unknown.

At any rate, they've just voted to reject No Deal, thank goodness - which should hopefully silence many of those who simply hate the EU so much they are  willing to pay ANY price to leave.

I don't think the EU would exact a heavy price - I simply cannot understand the people who think the EU are headed by petty malevolents who aim to punish us. In any case, an extension has to be agreed by all the other 27 member states. The EU doesn't want No Deal, but looking at it from their point of view, they've fixed up a deal after WE decided to leave and now that Parliament has rejected it (twice) they have no option but to throw it back at us and ask us "Well, what DO you want? When you decide then come back and let us know."

I bet they will. Don't forget, we will be the ones at the begging bowl and they will be calling the tune. They're already peed off with us - understandably - so why wouldn't they make an article 50 extension difficult? They never wanted us to leave in the first place and you can be sure that they will only agree to a long extension, possibly to the end of 2021, with added strings. Wait and see.     

14 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

I'll come back to you later. Right now I've turned over from the news to watch the Bayern - Liverpool Champions League match  ;) 

Great result. Didn't expect them to win at the Allianz to be honest. Very very few do. But Liverpool do have an exceptional team and a highly  driven manager. Just like Man City, actually, and arguably the other two as well. Who, for instance, would have expected Man U to come back from a 2:0 home leg defeat?      

That means 4 English teams in the quarters.  

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58 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

Great result. Didn't expect them to win at the Allianz to be honest. Very very few do. But Liverpool do have an exceptional team and a highly  driven manager. Just like Man City, actually, and arguably the other two as well. Who, for instance, would have expected Man U to come back from a 2:0 home leg defeat?      

That means 4 English teams in the quarters.  

Just hoping we don't draw either Manchester in the quarters.

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4 hours ago, Chingford said:

I am not sure that the Vote last night is legally binding, it would need to go through several processes to become enforceable.

The default position remains the same, we would leave on 29th March with or without a deal, unless an extension is agreed by the EU, as is written in law.

True.

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13 hours ago, Rob said:

Parliament has just sold the electorate down the river.

Not so. They put 65m ahead of 17m and that's their duty.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Peckris 2 said:

Not so. They put 65m ahead of 17m and that's their duty.

I didn't realise that there were that many MPs :D

Edited by Chingford

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4 hours ago, Peckris 2 said:

Liverpool do have an exceptional team

Most of them lured away from my Saints F.C. with umpteen pieces of silver. I hate them as much as I hate Man U.

But enough of this - back to Brexit.

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