Victoria bronze penny rarity ratings

[blakeyboy 1,601]

Is it just me, but are the standard accepted rarity ratings sometimes surprising?

I feel the 1860 F17 is more common than  Gouby R6,

the 1867 F53 is way more rare than N3,

the 1874H F76 is more common than R8 ( Michael used to say R7, but uprated it )

the 1875 F79 is way rarer than R5,

and the 1875H is more common than R5.

What do you guys think?

B

 

 

[jelida 1,196]

The most accurate relative rarity estimates remain Freeman’s, the sheer numbers of unsorted coins from circulation can never be replicated, and will be an accurate reflection of respective rarity of all but the rarest of pennies.  But in terms of the coins you list the problem is selective hoarding of coins considered rare, while the rest went to melt. Thus the pool of coins now available to collectors does not reflect original mintage figures. To achieve equivalence you might for example have to look only at coins in the top  grades, where survival is unlikely to have been affected  much by modern collecting trends.

Thus, my own experience is;

I agree that F17 seems scarce rather than rare, perhaps overrated.

1867 is more difficult than the preceding 2 years, perhaps underrated.

F76 is excessively rare by comparison in any condition, I have no problem with R8. Much rarer than F69.

F79 is perhaps on a par with F17, scarce but can be found.

1875H remains difficult, on the same sort of level as F17 and F79 in the top grades, though vastly commoner at low grade for the reason given above.

Stick with Freeman estimates.

Jerry

[Rob 2,996]

The opening paragraph says it all. It is virtually impossible to find a representative hoard from over 50 years ago. That's why I published on here the results of a few hundred silver sixpences taken over a market stall before they were demonetised. Being culled by a businessman rather than a collector, he was in no way influenced by rare dates, simply wanting to save the silver bits as a hoard of wealth. That was the guarantee of it being a genuinely random selection. 

The same applies when trying to establish relative rarity using auction data or past records. My personal belief is that for common coins you should only include sales from the general properties section because named collectors will in most instances require just a single example of each type or variety depending on the depth of the collection. Unless they collect every example available to them, the data must be skewed. So for example, when I collected shillings, one would have had to conclude that Charles I Sharp obverse E2/2 & E2/3 coins with im. Tun existed in the ratio 2:1 based on my collection. Clearly this is nonsense when the evidence of random sampling would suggest hundreds of the former and maybe a dozen of the latter. However, one E2/2 had a legend error, so then half would have to be errors. Again, it's a non-starter. There are too many unknowns to accurately revise rarity figures, which is why documenting relevant research is so important. Every little helps is the best you can aim for.

[PWA 1967 1,840]

I think Jerry has got them spot on 

[blakeyboy 1,601]

That makes sense, except original mintage figures are for coins minted that year,

not dated with that year, surely, so they smudge into the dates either side- hence my point.

Thus the pool of coins in circulation never reflected the original mintage figures exactly.

I can see how the selective removal or collecting of nice or rare examples has influenced things,

much more than the chance finds stuck in an old piece of furniture, for example,

but often, like me seeing way more 1875h in F condition than the equivalent 1875 F79....?

 

I agree with the 1874h F76- in fact Michael upped it to R9.

 

[jelida 1,196]

We were talking rarity values here, rather than published mintage numbers. Freeman was undoubtedly the better reflection of rarity in circulation, by date, and I agree there was some date overlap in the published annual mintage figures, particularly in the early years and so the two need not entirely coincide. I must admit that I have never looked at the mintage figures for this very reason. Freemans rarities did not equate to published mintage, neither do Gouby’s.

The 1875H of course is well known and easily recognisable, and low grade examples have been kept in their thousands while low grade examples of F79 have not. Some coins are excessively difficult in high grades but common at low grades for no obvious reason, such as 1864, while others are disproportionately common at high grades, such as 1860 or 1902 because the public kept them safe at the time as keepsakes. The same will apply to easily recognisable decimal issues which are made to appeal to collectors due to frequent design changes.

I wouldn’t get too hung up about either published rarity or mintage figures. The key issue for a collector is availability, ie the difficulty encountered when trying to acquire a particular coin.  An accurate assessment of grade specific availability might well throw up a few surprises!

Jerry

[1949threepence 3,366]

23 hours ago, blakeyboy said:

Is it just me, but are the standard accepted rarity ratings sometimes surprising?

I feel the 1860 F17 is more common than  Gouby R6,

the 1867 F53 is way more rare than N3,

the 1874H F76 is more common than R8 ( Michael used to say R7, but uprated it )

the 1875 F79 is way rarer than R5,

and the 1875H is more common than R5.

What do you guys think?

B

 

 

I'd agree with the comments above, but just to add my two pennuth:-

The 1860 F17 - difficult to get in really high grade, but otherwise I'd agree with Freeman's rating of R13 (501 to 1000 extant)

The 1867 F53 - again not the easiest to get in high grade. Would agree with Freeman's R7 estimate (20,001 to 30,000 extant) 

The 1874H F76 is vanishingly rare in any condition, probably <10 existing. I was lucky enough to get one off e bay a couple of years ago !  

The 1875 F79 - yes, agreed. Difficult to get and would agree with Freeman's estimate of R13

The 1875H Freeman 85. Another one that is abundant in the lower grades, but very rare in grades of EF and above.

Gouby sometimes has a tendency to make some pennies look rarer than they actually are.   

 

 

[1949threepence 3,366]

Incidentally, where I do agree with Gouby is in the distinction between the F17 and F18. Whilst Freeman has them both at R13, I agree with Gouby that the 1861 F18, is rarer than the F17, across the board.    

[secret santa 2,013]

1 hour ago, 1949threepence said:

The 1874H F76 is vanishingly rare in any condition, probably <10 existing. I was lucky enough to get one off e bay a couple of years ago !  

Mike

Have I got that one on my rarest website ?

R

[1949threepence 3,366]

9 minutes ago, secret santa said:

Mike

Have I got that one on my rarest website ?

R

No, Richard. Do you want a photo?

[secret santa 2,013]

Just now, 1949threepence said:

No, Richard. Do you want a photo?

Definitely - yes please. If collectors have further examples of any of the rare pennies shown, I'd appreciate details to further improve evidence of rarity.

[1949threepence 3,366]

22 minutes ago, secret santa said:

Definitely - yes please. If collectors have further examples of any of the rare pennies shown, I'd appreciate details to further improve evidence of rarity.

Here it is - just freshly photographed a few minutes ago !!! (not the best, but beggars can't be choosers. I was damn lucky to get it for just £58.  

 

 

[secret santa 2,013]

9 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

No, Richard. Do you want a photo?

Thanks Mike - that was a hell of a bargain.

[1949threepence 3,366]

7 hours ago, secret santa said:

Thanks Mike - that was a hell of a bargain.

Absolutely Richard. The guy who sold it had been a collector of bun pennies from change, when he was a kid in the 1950's, and put them away, only to be re-examined all these years later, and sold on e bay. No doubt most of the others were run of the mill, but as with other kitchen drawer collections that have been looked at, just very occasionally a real rarity shows up. He himself never realised what it was. I thought it only reasonable to tell him, but he was just pleased it had found a good home. Fair play to him.  

Edited January 31, 2018 by 1949threepence

[blakeyboy 1,601]

Oh I'm jealous- the F76 is the one I crave.

My F69 was off ebay- gambling on a bad picture -a £16 pile of pennies.

A bit better condition than the £255 one on Bay last week.

[PWA 1967 1,840]

23 minutes ago, blakeyboy said:

Oh I'm jealous- the F76 is the one I crave.

My F69 was off ebay- gambling on a bad picture -a £16 pile of pennies.

A bit better condition than the £255 one on Bay last week.

Just shows how much i know about them as didnt think it was one 

[1949threepence 3,366]

10 hours ago, PWA 1967 said:

Just shows how much i know about them as didnt think it was one 

The taller helmet plume is the main giveaway, Pete. 

[PWA 1967 1,840]

26 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

The taller helmet plume is the main giveaway, Pete. 

Yes thanks Mike the sea line sometimes i cant tell especially if the coin is worn and even then sometimes i am unsure.

The 1874 can be tricky to tell the differences between them all atleast i struggle ,i need to try and spend some more time trying to get my head round them.

Talking of daft dots  the ebay coin also had one at the side of the ship 

[1949threepence 3,366]

Another somewhat enigmatic penny, is the Freeman 98, 1879 narrow date. Often crops up in grades up to and including VF, but only very rarely at EF and above. They do exist - getting one is a whole different ball game.

One UNC with good lustre (touted as possibly the best) went at the Workman sale in 2010 for £1500. Another went for £520 at the Laurie Bamford auction in 2006. There is also a very nice one pictured on Tony Clayton's website. At this moment in time, they're the only three I recall seeing in high grade. Although an EF speciment went at the Freeman auction in 1984, with a 94, 96 & 97, for £162. 

Really not easy to get in top grade, as rarely offered.      

     

[PWA 1967 1,840]

Yes its like most though Mike they are all hard to find when you want one 

A low grade one sold on ebay last night and like most that are scarce will be even harder in high grade.

[PWA 1967 1,840]

On 1/31/2018 at 4:12 PM, 1949threepence said:

Absolutely Richard. The guy who sold it had been a collector of bun pennies from change, when he was a kid in the 1950's, and put them away, only to be re-examined all these years later, and sold on e bay. No doubt most of the others were run of the mill, but as with other kitchen drawer collections that have been looked at, just very occasionally a real rarity shows up. He himself never realised what it was. I thought it only reasonable to tell him, but he was just pleased it had found a good home. Fair play to him.  

When you say " I thought it only reasonable to tell him " was that before you bought it Mike 

[1949threepence 3,366]

49 minutes ago, PWA 1967 said:

When you say " I thought it only reasonable to tell him " was that before you bought it Mike 

After - until I saw it in hand, I wasn't 100% sure it was a F76.