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Frying pan And fire come to mind :huh:

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18 minutes ago, hertfordian said:

I can't get rid of my local MP as there is a first past the post system and I live in a safe seat.  That's not exactly a ringing endorsement for me wanting to leave the EU now is it?

Actually you can as a number of Scottish Labour MPs found out to their cost at the last General Election.

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The whole debate has become a bit hysterical and especially from the Remain side with dire warnings of economic catastrophe, the latest being a warning from the IMF of a drop in GDP greater than that experience in the Great Depression. Frankly, most of it is not very believable.

There are also a few red herrings in the debate. 

First, 'trade deals'. Remain is giving the impression that we need trade deals to be able to do business and, if we leave the EU, we will have difficulty in getting those deals. Nothing could be further from the truth. Neither Europe not the UK has a trade deal with the USA at this point in time but it doesn't stop us doing a ton of business with them.

Second, unfavourable tariffs with the EU. In 2014, the EU had a trade surplus with the UK of around £68 billion. Tariffs are always reciprocated. Anyone who thinks that the EU will risk incurring tariffs on its huge trade surplus is clearly smoking something not quite legal. Trade will continue.

Third, immigration. Only about 40% of UK immigration is from the EU and the government has complete control over the rest. If we wanted to cut immigration in half then we could and without reference to the EU. Also, there are about as many Brits living in other EU countries as there are EU citizens living in the UK. Around a million Brits live in Spain, many of them retirees.

Fourth, benefits. A University College, London, study found that immigrants who arrived after 1999 were 45% less likely to receive state benefits or tax credits than UK natives in the period 2000-2011 and had contributed 34% more in taxes than they received in benefits.

Ultimately, I think that the key issue in this referendum is what kind of relationship the UK wants to have with the rest of the EU. I suspect that most people do not want to be part of a not very democratic European superstate (and this might be true of other countries as well). The rather hysterical scare tactics we are seeing are a not very subtle attempt to avoid this core issue.

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On the News today, another of those Great British Companies, Microsoft, has highlighted the doom and gloom that 'could' befall us economically if we do leave, echoing the thoughts of those other major UK Brands, namely Audi, BMW, Starbucks,..  I feel their campaign would have more weight if an actual UK business or two were shown to side with the stay Campaign

I would still like to see an reasoned argument for staying, I have been bombarded with lots of economical figures and reasons that are not actually fact, and very little else

Edited by Chingford

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Even the Germans are on the side of those wanting out. :) My wife thinks we should leave.

 

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30 minutes ago, Chingford said:

On the News today, another of those Great British Companies, Microsoft, has highlighted the doom and gloom that 'could' befall us economically if we do leave, echoing the thoughts of those other major UK Brands, namely Audi, BMW, Starbucks,..  I feel their campaign would have more weight if an actual UK business or two were shown to side with the stay Campaign

I would still like to see an reasoned argument for staying, I have been bombarded with lots of economical figures and reasons that are not actually fact, and very little else

That is part of the problem. There is a dearth of hard, quantifiable and generally accepted numbers on which to form an opinion.

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I still feel that the lack of factual reasons given by the In group hits the nail on the head. The main reason for staying in appears to be fear of the unknown (plus a few of the more vociferous supporters worry they will be thrown off the gravy train). If the outcome of this referendum is that we stay in Europe, it will be a damning endictment of the indifferent attitude people have to democracy. I also wonder what the attitude will be of the EU to this country going forward. I suspect a tightening of central control will happen to dissuade anyone else from having independent thought.

Considering the Lib Dems have spent decades voicing their support for all things European, I'm surprised there haven't been any statements of support for the In campaign. As the most solidly pro-European political group in this country you would have expected them to say something. Irrespective of how far down in the polls they are, the party machine is still operative. Or maybe they are unwilling/unable to explain their unswerving subservience to a foreign institution over which they have no control.

 

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Whatever the rights and wrongs of the respective campaigns are, one politician I'm finding particularly irritating, is Boris Johnson. His Hitler comparisons were beyond ridiculous, and reflect the increasingly hysterical nature of the debate as 23rd June gets nearer.

Not sure if anbody listened to the appalling interview he had with John Humphreys on the Today programme a few days ago, in which he literally talked incessantly, would barely allow John Humphreys to ask any questions, and frequently both were talking across each other at the same time, rendering the interview a complete farce.

Sorry to say it, but this arrogant buffoon is a let down to the Brexit team.

     

 

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7 hours ago, Gary1000 said:

Surly these so called eurocrats are the EU version of our civil servants, we can get rid of them can we.

The difference being that Civil Servants merely advise, and then administrate the law as decided by parliament. EU eurocrats decide on new rules themselves, seemingly without any accountability whatever.   

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a question from an italian student of economics : What do you think will happen to your national currency in case of  leaving EU ?

The last weeks one of my professor ( he is English ) told us that he thinks that probably at the end uk will remain in

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18 minutes ago, Matteo95 said:

a question from an italian student of economics : What do you think will happen to your national currency in case of  leaving EU ?

The last weeks one of my professor ( he is English ) told us that he thinks that probably at the end uk will remain in

Very difficult to say precisely how leaving the EU would affect the pound. Almost impossible to predict at this stage, except that I don't think it would be in any sense dramatically good or bad in the short term.

However, your professor is more probably than not correct. I think we will vote to remain, but only by a very narrow margin, maybe even 51% to 49%.  

 

Edited by 1949threepence
spelling error

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5 minutes ago, Matteo95 said:

a question from an italian student of economics : What do you think will happen to your national currency in case of  leaving EU ?

The last weeks one of my professor ( he is English ) told us that he thinks that probably at the end uk will remain in

The pound floats freely. If Britain votes to leave then it will probably see a short term dip. However, in the longer term, the value of the currency is determined by the overall strength of the economy and by other factors such as interest rates. If UK economic performance does not dip significantly then the pound will gradually appreciate back to the level it is at today if not higher. If the UK raises interest rates it will also appreciate. In the event of a Eurozone economic dip - and like the Swiss Franc - the pound may be seen as a refuge currency and there will be some capital flight from the Euro and into the pound. That would also push its value up.

Obviously, the opposite can also happen. 

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4 hours ago, TomGoodheart said:

I have no real problems with a federal Europe, generally feel that the freedom to travel, simplicity of getting a job and convenience of a single currency are good things, particularly for my daughter's generation who I'm sure see the world in different terms than us oldies.

Imagine the hassle if we had to obtain visas and be anally probed biometrically recorded for each European country we might wish to visit as is now required for the US.  Imagine the inconvenience of different purchase taxes/ vat whenever we buy something from a dealer or auction house in Spain or Germany.  The loss of the convenience of low cost phone roaming, drawing your pension or receiving free-at-point-of-treatment medical care ...  Add to that working time directives, maternity policies/ parental leave .. all covered by EU legislation and things that as an employee I am pleased to see in place.

People talk of 'faceless bureaucrats', but who here could identify many of our UK senior Civil Servants if shown a photo?  Our democratic system is based on bureaucracy so to say the EU should be different is daft.  Sure, it may not be a perfect set-up, but then what is?  I personally think it's better to be in and able to influence things than out and subject to policy changes but without a voice. 

Can I guarantee that if we left major companies would move to where it's more convenient to do business?  That prices of goods on the high street would go up?  That Britain would lose a degree of international influence?  No. But those are things I fear.  It's not perfect, but it ain't broke to my eyes and leaving won't 'fix' it ...

I don't see an issue with much of what you are claiming to be issues, which are views that I have heard repeatedly......but I suppose that is the joy of personal opinion. Travelling outside of Europe is not much different than travelling within it, unless you are going on an unplanned tour of the continent and hopping between countries. I could still get a job in a majority of countries outside the EU as long as I had a benefit to offer to them, and I am not sure I would want to go to those that did not want me. There are plenty of people who have moved to New Zealand, Australia and the USA and quite happily survive there, because they have something to offer to their new host nation. I recently went to the US and it was logistically no worse than travelling to Europe, I had to do some online form filling, but it was hardly an obstacle that ruined the experience.

Low cost phone roaming is also a myth, I used the same arrangements I had here whilst in the US without any additional charges including unlimited data.....

The employee benefits also really frustrate me when put forward as a European policy. Regardless of whether we would have been in the EU as a modern civilised society, changes in culture and moral views have inevitably changed with time, and as a result the accompanying legislation would also have changed and evolved. If the church can slowly progress against its underlying values and historical beliefs, I am sure even our governments would have established a very similar stance regarding paternity leave, working directives etc.

I am a firm believer of a capitalistic society, and the principles on which it is founded, but even I have issues with the direction globalisation is currently taking us, by creating an abundance of "digital" wealth, and money is the primary focus behind a vast majority of our daily decisions....it is quite worrying!!

 At what point does money become more of a priority than our morals/beliefs. It is quite fascinating how strong peoples views are on this subject, and I have always been firmly in the "leave" camp, but as I do in everyday life I always try to listen to the views of those encouraging us to remain with the hope I could make a logical decision if someone did convince me...but nothing has even come close yet......

And as for the Brits in Spain and other countries (of which my parents are 2)...they chose to leave this country and as a result their concerns are not my concerns...I am concerned about the country in which I reside..they can worry about where they choose to reside.

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12 hours ago, jaggy said:

The whole debate has become a bit hysterical and especially from the Remain side with dire warnings of economic catastrophe, the latest being a warning from the IMF of a drop in GDP greater than that experience in the Great Depression. Frankly, most of it is not very believable.

There are also a few red herrings in the debate. 

First, 'trade deals'. Remain is giving the impression that we need trade deals to be able to do business and, if we leave the EU, we will have difficulty in getting those deals. Nothing could be further from the truth. Neither Europe not the UK has a trade deal with the USA at this point in time but it doesn't stop us doing a ton of business with them.

Second, unfavourable tariffs with the EU. In 2014, the EU had a trade surplus with the UK of around £68 billion. Tariffs are always reciprocated. Anyone who thinks that the EU will risk incurring tariffs on its huge trade surplus is clearly smoking something not quite legal. Trade will continue.

Third, immigration. Only about 40% of UK immigration is from the EU and the government has complete control over the rest. If we wanted to cut immigration in half then we could and without reference to the EU. Also, there are about as many Brits living in other EU countries as there are EU citizens living in the UK. Around a million Brits live in Spain, many of them retirees.

Fourth, benefits. A University College, London, study found that immigrants who arrived after 1999 were 45% less likely to receive state benefits or tax credits than UK natives in the period 2000-2011 and had contributed 34% more in taxes than they received in benefits.

Ultimately, I think that the key issue in this referendum is what kind of relationship the UK wants to have with the rest of the EU. I suspect that most people do not want to be part of a not very democratic European superstate (and this might be true of other countries as well). The rather hysterical scare tactics we are seeing are a not very subtle attempt to avoid this core issue.

All this scare mongering is hardly new and you have to remember that even if the majority votes to leave the PM can still veto the referendum and choose to do what he feels is right. With the referendum we are voting to move that power to veto to the EU and to dilute our democratic rights. This is how it works currently - we elect the PM, the PM asks us for an opinion and then the PM can decide to veto or to honour public sentiment; if the PM decides to veto then it's political suicide because there is little chance of being re-elected and after 4 years tops its bye Mr PM and it stops at that (at least for the most part unless the Queen intervenes etc). If we don’t BREXIT the same scenario changes like this - we elect the PM, the PM asks us for an opinion through a referendum, again he can veto that, if decides not to, then he will still remain just one of x (x being the pool of all representative across the 28 member states) pawns. If we don’t get a majority there we are stuffed and assuming we get a majority at the EU then too our voice hardly matters for the EU council can now have a second chance to veto. What’s worse we can't boot the EU leaders and there would be little point changing our PM too. This is how our democratic rights get diluted and this is actually the crux of the matter and what should form the core of the Leave Campaigners. What's more by not BREXITing we would have squandered the rights of our children too because there won’t be another referendum for another 50 years.

When you think of Europe the first things that come to mind are the tulips of Keukenhof, the blonde women of Rotterdam and the weed cakes of Amsterdam. In a nutshell that land of the free and plenty springs to the mind. It's also worth mentioning that the Dutch are one of handful to cap the pay of the super-rich. They make sure no one earns over a certain threshold to ensure the gap between the rich and poor is at check. Yet here's what the EU has done to the Dutch

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cO4Ayo4mYZg

 

Edited by Prax

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10 hours ago, Colin G. said:

I don't see an issue with much of what you are claiming to be issues, which are views that I have heard repeatedly......but I suppose that is the joy of personal opinion.

And I think that's in essence the key here.  Personal opinion. 

We are all being asked to decide on an issue when it is pretty much impossible to tell what the long term effects of staying or leaving will be.

There will be waves in the short term either way.  Eventually things will stabilise and Britain will survive depending on how we all do within the World economy, as happens at present.

When it comes down to it I think it all boils down to how you feel about the power balance within Europe and whether you're more a nationalist (small n) or federalist I guess.

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I think it is also worth pointing out that the EU inspired legislation on the books will only be selectively removed should we leave and even then only gradually over time, because to remove it all at a stroke would leave a vacuum resulting in anarchy. We will keep the bits that suit us and ditch the rest, so the fear campaign's message of impending doom doesn't really hold water. People aren't going to be made slaves as a result of the EU not determining our legislation, nor are we suddenly going to become a heartless nation. The vast majority from all political persuasions have always and are always likely to have a social conscience.

As for the last point made by Richard

'When it comes down to it I think it all boils down to how you feel about the power balance within Europe and whether you're more a nationalist (small n) or federalist I guess.'

For the first time in over 40 years, people are being asked if they want to take a nationalist or federalist stance. If the EU decided to have a referendum, the question would only ever be do you want to be more federalist. And if the answer received wasn't 'Yes', the question would be asked again and again until it was obtained. If this country voted 'Out', the door would always be open to future governments to rejoin should it be in our interests, albeit most likely on stricter binding terms, because the desire for centralised power would over-ride the current rhetoric. It's their ball to take away or allow you to play with at their whim.

The fundamental question remains. Do we wish to remain subservient to an unelected and unaccountable group of 28 autocrats and the polycracy that is the EU leadership? Sorry, but that really is a rhetorical question for me.

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19 hours ago, Chingford said:

Unfortunately not, we can not vote for EU Council members or Presidents

We can elect our own UK representatives, but as Nigel Farage said last week, of 72 proposals voted against last year by our own elected members, all 72 proposals were pushed through by the EU, bit of a waste of time having any representation, chocolate teapot et al

 

 

Sounds a bit like Westminster and the Tory majority......

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Being in the middle of the whole thing, my honest opinion would be that Brussels needs revamping. The key factor IMO is that Brussels meddles far to much in law making of other countries, in that respect i'd probably vote to leave UNLESS there was some major changes within the structure........

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54 minutes ago, azda said:

Being in the middle of the whole thing, my honest opinion would be that Brussels needs revamping. The key factor IMO is that Brussels meddles far to much in law making of other countries, in that respect i'd probably vote to leave UNLESS there was some major changes within the structure........

The problem being of course that unless someone does actually leave, the alternative is nothing will happen. Even a majority of one in the referendum for staying in will be portrayed as a resounding endorsement of the status quo and a vindication of the current setup.

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Is an international body doing the count? If not I won't hold my breath that the vote will be in favour of a Brexit

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For awhile while Ukraine was dismembering itself some wise head in Donets'k proposed that Donets'k secede from Ukraine and declare itself part of the UK since it was founded by John Hughes, a Welshman in the 19th century.  I might propose a trade, Britain gets Donets'k and Ukraine, or whatever crumbs are left of it gets Edinburgh - or whatever is left of it.

I might bring that up with the powers that be in the DPR, since Russia is not always the most trustworthy of allies of late.

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Machiavelli wrote that the purpose of political power is to maintain itself and to extend itself. It has nothing to do with the welfare of the people. It has nothing to do with principles or ideology or right and wrong. The welfare of the people, principles, ideology, right and wrong: these are related to the means to the end, but the goal is power. Do whatever it takes to keep your power and extend your power.

Which is why a vote to remain in is a vote to continue being treated as an inconvenience by the unelected and unaccountables, but nothing more. Any suggestion that we would be able to reform the EU by remaining is a delusion.

Machiavelli should be required reading by all as understanding it would better equip people to make a rational decision. Any potential reduction in the power of those on top should be grasped when the opportunity arises, because they aren't going to give it up willingly.

500 years after it was written, the arguments hold true today as they ever did, whether it be prior to Magna Carta, the reform laws of 200 years ago, the control of the Vatican over large swathes of the world's population or modern day North Korea. Abrogate your responsibilities at your children's peril.

Edited by Rob

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Britain does have quite a bit more in common with her transatlantic partners, Canada and the USA, than she does with continental Europe.  Think about it, beginning especially in the 18th century industrialism and manufacturing took off at an unprecedented pace in Britain whilst the rest of Europe wallowed in a miserably serf-like existence.  The USA, Canada and Great Britain have a long history, not always perfect - but we have a lot more in common in values than say Britain has with that country across the channel.

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4 minutes ago, scottishmoney said:

Britain does have quite a bit more in common with her transatlantic partners, Canada and the USA, than she does with continental Europe.  Think about it, beginning especially in the 18th century industrialism and manufacturing took off at an unprecedented pace in Britain whilst the rest of Europe wallowed in a miserably serf-like existence.  The USA, Canada and Great Britain have a long history, not always perfect - but we have a lot more in common in values than say Britain has with that country across the channel.

What? The grand old US of E? ;)

Sorry, it's too serious an issue to make light. There is an agenda which is going to be pursued irrespective of the people of Europe until presented as a fait accompli. Just as Europe wandered blindly into WW1 by political agreements and alliances, so is it doing the same with a united states of Europe. People need to stop digging themselves into a hole they will be unable to exit.

Edited by Rob

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