British Coin Forecast for 2012

[petitioncrown 4]

British Coin forecast 2012

www.petitioncrown.com

The main auctions for 2011 have just been completed and record prices have been achieved. To laugh or to cry at the market, neither will help to change the present continuing demand. Today we should consider what if there is more financial volatility? What will be the level of interest from the US and other markets? At present it is not easy to evaluate future interest based on the present market. A major question is, in which areas of our series are there coins available for new and existing collectors?

We hear what seems to be “much ado about nothing” with reference to investors, these individuals which I hear but fail to encounter. I did hear that the majority of those that start out investing turn into collectors – well, it is new members we welcome to our fraternity.

Large gold coins remain much sought after. For example the ‘Triple Unite’, 4 quality specimens of which were sold off for an average of £150,000 each during Coinex. These are a favourite of the wealthy although most Triple Unites are not so rare; strong prices highlight the presence of new collectors and investors, with an eye for quality taking an interest in our hobby. Quality Silver pieces in comparison seem inexpensive. Base metals still quietly demand higher and higher prices.

Many times we forget the extreme rarity of Scottish and Irish hammered coins. The prices today being far lower than comparative English coins. Bring rarity into the equation and Scottish & Irish prices need to rise.

The forecast for 2012 is clear, subject to the world monetary system continuing as is:

• High grade material which accounts in general for less than 10% of coins appearing on the market is moving ahead by 10%-20%. There are coins of high grade and rarity that are now bringing double, triple the estimates at auction. The fact is that quality with or without rarity is sought after as ‘objects d’art’.

• The middle quality VF+ is advancing at a slightly slower pace as there is a lack of higher quality material to meet present demand.

• The lower quality is attracting very little attention at present and there is no reason to see change in 2012 except if the specimen is an extreme rarity.

The Brady Collection of groats sold at Spinks in London on October 6th. showed the strength of the market. 400 lots of one denomination were all sold. High grade and rarity was 300% + over estimate. The auction forecast £200’000 and sold for £342’000 with new world record prices: Henry IV Groat £23’500, a Tournai Gros/Groat just under £30’000. A sale with wonderful rarities. It makes us remember what wonderful general collections were Slaney, Marshall, Van Roekel +

Lot 290 Brady Collection Tournai Gros/Groat dated 1513

The auction was well covered by CNG & Allan Davisson and others from the US and many UK dealers and collectors. CNG are getting the Seaby spirit and bidding strongly for quality material in the UK market.

The English coin market is attracting overseas attention again from the US and the world market, prices for quality and rarity being just a fraction of prices for US coins.

English Tournai Groat/Gros, Lot 290, The Brady Collection, London, Spinks, 6th Oct 2011 - A SILVER GROAT/GROS (4p piece) of King Henry VIII dated 1513 when Tournai in France was under English rule, these coins are detailed in Spinks Standard Catalogue reference 2317*. Hammer Price with commission for under £ 30’000. This rarity slipped through and was underr

ated by most collectors or dealers, demonstrating there are always opportunities.Coins had been struck in Tournai over a long period and there were skilled craftsman available to undertake the minting of Henry VIII 1513 coinage. The coin was replaced in 1514 by an English portrait Groat, Standard Catalogue reference 2317.

This coin dated 1513 in Latin Numerals is an Extreme Rarity being the earliest English dated coin it is the only one available to collectors of three specimens known, two being in museums.

The world has changed; the internet has created a transfer of information quite instantaneously. What was a quiet hobby dominated by dealers’ lists and fairs, now, ever increasing numbers of collectors and investors can scour the world for coins, information prices and ‘alternative investment opportunities. This is only the start for the ‘Art Market of British coins’.

A consideration is that individuals will take control of their future investment plans. The lack of confidence in ‘paper money’, and inability of governments to keep fiscal controls will emphasize this trend. Pension funds, insurance, financial institutions struggle to deliver results due to the market volatility. A new driver of the hobby can be the preparation for retirement, today we get 80% of our final salary, and the future will give our children maybe 40%

A question I am continually asked is how should the portfolio be split, bullion, rare coins, cash, property, stocks and all the financial tools available – if only I knew the answer! You can go back to farming, we will always need food.

Elizabeth I, Pattern Groat, 3.89g, struck in silver, 1601, crowned facing bust of Queen.

Lot 360 The Brady Collection

A wonderful piece of portraiture

It is still as important as always is that the adviser, agent or dealer who looks after your needs should have a good reputation and be knowledgeable.

As all hobbies it is good to focus on what you understand, diversification in numismatics can bring dangers through lack of knowledge. Buy the book first.

What is driving the market as we enter 2012?

• Demand for quality material outstripping supply

• Provenances

• The internet

• Continual volatility & risk in the investment, pension, banking market creating a heightened level of fear and instability

The ultimate question is what the state of the market will be 2013/14; this requires the wisdom of age and the enthusiasm of the young. Collecting is a passion, a love of the beauty of these pieces of art and the insights to our history they give. – This gives you no answer but is one of the driving forces of a collector.

Geoffrey Cope www.petitioncrown.com

[AJWcoins 1]

Interesting post. The 1601 pattern groat is stunning.

[VickySilver 775]

Thanks for the input on this and good if contributors are able to add to this thread, with rationale.

I do not profess to know the hammered series but may be able to add to the more recent milled bits:

I have the distinct impression that the free rise (explosion?) in prices of even choice pieces may be tailing off a bit, and although limited in scale, was impressed by the relatively poor performance of some of the Vicky and Ed7 halfcrowns in the last St. James auction - they did not blow up past estimates and I think performed somewhat poorly; to belabor it, the 1905 halfcrown and even moreso the 1904 halfcrown looked from photos to be quite pleasant specimens and prices did not seem to follow an upward trend (I had even considered bidding on the '04).

Lower denomination silver just does not seem to draw much excitement even given some of the nice Bole 6ds just sold with only minimal exceptions (Ed8 pattern obverse and silver 1927 proof to some degree).How, for example does the 1923 copper-nickel 3d pattern of a date that does not even exist in currency struggle to make only 2.5k pounds? Florins: how does a "mint" 1932 florin flounder at 350 pounds or so? Many other examples...

20th C. copper just does not seem to draw excitement - even proof VIP issues or choice 1918/1919 H and KN pieces. These coins reach their prices but just do not seem to "catch". The matte 51 and '53 coins would seem to be worthy coins to rise but have not to cite an example. Even 1926ME lustrous red or at least red-brown specimens just do not seem to generate ever accelerating prices.

I find it amusing that gold, especially nice proof specimens of the 1937 issue make such prices, but even those have levelled off over the last two or three years (ie the sovereign). These are relatively common but are buoyed at least at current prices for some of the reasons mentioned in the OP.

In short, in my opinion, late milled copper and silver are at high levels but may be beginning to slow in growth of prices. Examples such as narrow date buns, etc. are outliers that are sustained by IMO only a couple of well-healed collectors. What say the rest of you?

[petitioncrown 4]

Thanks very important contribution, I have very little knowledge on this area.

Regards Jeff

Thanks for the input on this and good if contributors are able to add to this thread, with rationale.

I do not profess to know the hammered series but may be able to add to the more recent milled bits:

I have the distinct impression that the free rise (explosion?) in prices of even choice pieces may be tailing off a bit, and although limited in scale, was impressed by the relatively poor performance of some of the Vicky and Ed7 halfcrowns in the last St. James auction - they did not blow up past estimates and I think performed somewhat poorly; to belabor it, the 1905 halfcrown and even moreso the 1904 halfcrown looked from photos to be quite pleasant specimens and prices did not seem to follow an upward trend (I had even considered bidding on the '04).

Lower denomination silver just does not seem to draw much excitement even given some of the nice Bole 6ds just sold with only minimal exceptions (Ed8 pattern obverse and silver 1927 proof to some degree).How, for example does the 1923 copper-nickel 3d pattern of a date that does not even exist in currency struggle to make only 2.5k pounds? Florins: how does a "mint" 1932 florin flounder at 350 pounds or so? Many other examples...

20th C. copper just does not seem to draw excitement - even proof VIP issues or choice 1918/1919 H and KN pieces. These coins reach their prices but just do not seem to "catch". The matte 51 and '53 coins would seem to be worthy coins to rise but have not to cite an example. Even 1926ME lustrous red or at least red-brown specimens just do not seem to generate ever accelerating prices.

I find it amusing that gold, especially nice proof specimens of the 1937 issue make such prices, but even those have levelled off over the last two or three years (ie the sovereign). These are relatively common but are buoyed at least at current prices for some of the reasons mentioned in the OP.

In short, in my opinion, late milled copper and silver are at high levels but may be beginning to slow in growth of prices. Examples such as narrow date buns, etc. are outliers that are sustained by IMO only a couple of well-healed collectors. What say the rest of you?

[Colin G. 147]

I agree fascinating read, I think the mid grade prices will suffer, because the collectors that covet this grade range, will start to inevitably feel the pinch financially, and this will in my opinion affect prices.

The higher grade pieces and true rarities will inevitably become investment targets, whilst the world economy is still trying to correct itself.

I think that "variety collectors" are much more prolific than a lot of people realise. Since setting up my site, I have been amazed at the number of people who target this field of collecting. I know it may not appeal to all, but it is an area that allows bargain hunting to continue, and allows collectors of a series to expand on current collecting goals. I have to agree with comments that Peter has made before that it is mainly the publication of Gouby's guide that has triggered off the collecting phenomenon around bunhead pennies, and when similar publications are released for other denominations I have no doubt prices will increase around varieties of these denominations as they become sought after by the masses.

Look how many of us on the forum are scouring for micro varieties, it keeps collecting fresh in my opinion!! (as long as it does not get to Batty's stage!! )

[scott 129]

micro varietys seems odd how you get the 1908 and 1909 rare pennys when you get similar small differances unlisted in other dates.

and i want that pattern groat omg O.O

[Peckris 579]

Interesting that the responses so far talk about extreme prices for "highly desirable but sought after by relatively few collectors with very deep pockets" coins. I'd be much more comfortable following up the last post's argument about such things as Vic/Ed VII halfcrowns at the St James Auction. Also to hear from newbies like Patrick, 'modest outlay' collectors like Scott and Declan (nevertheless very enthusiastic), dealers like Derek and Rob, etc. The top of the market is something I look at with purely academic interest, knowing that it's an ivory tower which may or may not be an indicator of what is happening lower down for the vast majority of collectors.

I too was interested in those halfcrowns at St James - I agree that the rarest Ed VII pieces performed below their estimates, but perhaps those estimates were bumped up rather in anticipation of a frenzy? It was salutary to see that estimates for other Ed VII and Geo V halfcrowns - quality rather than rarity - were exceeded, sometimes dramatically.

As for grades <=> prices - it's always been the case that UNC prices for 75% or more of coins exceed expectations, while other grades fall more and more behind. Having said that, I find that for modern milled VF has always been the hardest grade to predict. Fine grade coins will always find a ready buyer among a huge number of collectors who simply don't have the means for anything better, and prefer a large collection, or date run.

Current trends are driven by the economic situation I believe, though not exclusively. Prices were steadily improving consistently from the mid-90s onwards, all through a Bull market. The current Bear market is seeing a "flight to alternative forms of investment" such as was seen in the mid-1970s. Are these new investors / collectors? I don't have the statistical analysis to answer that one.

The unknown factor in all of this is eBay. It's been a large factor among collectors for only around 5 maybe 7 years. Before that it was only a minority source. However there are still plenty of serious collectors who would buy from the old established auction houses but never from eBay, so in a way, the online factor may only be affecting the very large bottom sector of the market rather than the 'gilded elite'.

What is driving the market as we enter 2012?

• Demand for quality material outstripping supply

• Provenances

• The internet

• Continual volatility & risk in the investment, pension, banking market creating a heightened level of fear and instability

Yes to 1. Very much so. As ever. As always. This has never NOT been true, 1966-1973 excepted perhaps.

2.? Probably only for the top pieces where it does matter, but not for 95% or more of what's traded.

Yes to 3. - see my paragraph about eBay.

Yes to 4. - but bear in mind that UK coins were seriously underpriced in the mid-90s and have been catching up ever since. It's not just financial volatility though that has a part to play also.

[Colin G. 147]

I think it is important not to read too much into the results of a single auction, sometimes there are auctions where the focus is not where you expect and you can grab some bargains, and other times when you wonder whether you missed something because of the ludicrous price a particular lot achieved.

You have to have the right people in the room (or at the computer) at that time

If you had several auctions return a similar trend towards halfcrown, then it could be classed as a trend, but it is just a single sale and there may have been other reasons why those pieces did not realise what we anticipated

• Demand for quality material outstripping supply - Yes and I think this is why variety collecting is becoming more popular

• Provenances - Agree with Peck on this one!!

• The internet - And this one!!

• Continual volatility & risk in the investment, pension, banking market creating a heightened level of fear and instability - I think it is still unclear whether this will have a positive or negative effect on collecting prices, only time will tell....place your bets now!!

Edited October 18, 2011 by Colin G.

[scott 129]

i'm sure the serious collectors look on ebay sometimes, i personnaly havn't looked on ebay for a few months, as the higher quality stuff on there does up a fair bit to more then book price. (nice geo V pennies), there are a few varietys that slip under the radar on ebay often, (1879 narrow date for a few quid, same with LT 1897 penny that i have found), my main focus is my dealer, the prices on a few the contents of boxes (older farthings have gone up) but still plenty of nice things.

i dont like upper end tbh, i like the history and a nice look, sometimes UNC cant give that nice been spent a bit colour.

i may again focus again on bulk buys, the rules of these on ebay are the same as in auction house, if you spot something you go for it, especially on ebay where you cant investigate properly, the right price is key. bulk lots never ever sell at the value of the coins.

i would also put the higher prices on such things as halfcrowns on the metal markets as well.

[Peckris 579]

i dont like upper end tbh, i like the history and a nice look, sometimes UNC cant give that nice been spent a bit colour.

i may again focus again on bulk buys, the rules of these on ebay are the same as in auction house, if you spot something you go for it, especially on ebay where you cant investigate properly, the right price is key. bulk lots never ever sell at the value of the coins.

i would also put the higher prices on such things as halfcrowns on the metal markets as well.

>>> I agree! A toned piece is unique, where a BU piece is like any other BU piece.

>>> That's why bulk lots are so often bought by dealers, picking up coins at what amount to wholesale prices.

>>> Metal markets only come in to play for low grade items - those St James lots were all GEF - UNC, and sold for many many times their metal value.

[1949threepence 3,366]

Very interesting and thought provoking post by petition crown.

There can be no doubt that a "perfect storm" of factors have recently combined to boost coins into another stratosphere of investment opportunity. Major and protracted global recession, deep economic gloom as well as increasing angst about inflation, have resulted in a dash for safety by those holding substantial but vulnerable non tangible assets. Usually these people will not be collectors with a significant aesthetic interest in coins, and indeed coins may only feature as the "precious metal" component of their portfolio. Nevertheless I am heartened by your assertion that the majority of those who start out as investors, do actually become collectors in the fullness of time.

We cannot in any way discount the true collectors/dealers who, inspired by the obviously enhanced interest, will also up their own game and snatch opportunities which may be invisible to the wealthy, yet rookie, coin investor, by utilising long held acquired skills, just to show they can outwit them. This naturally leads on to the question of quality piece availabilty ~ just how many choice specimens are squirrelled away in private collections globally, never to see the light of day again, at any rate, probably not in our lifetimes. This has undoubtedly resulted in an ever increasing ratio of quality to price: hard to obtain BU or UNC items, being snapped up immediately at prices which show a steepening differential to even EF and below. In some cases all the choice specimens are already lost to buyer availability, although they almost certainly exist somewhere.

Then there is something I had previously never given serious consideration to, namely an overspill of the US market into English coins, as their coins reach record prices, and ours are seen as an attractive alternative option. Again that will boost prices as demand for quality pieces is yet again lit from another angle.

Finally there is the internet, which has brought together the entire numismatic community under one easily accessible, much less obscure, roof. This provides a high speed vehicle, in extremis, for investment cash. The additional delights of e bay are already very well documented, but as the art and hobby become ever more sophisticated, e bay is in my view, becoming slightly left behind. Already it is very apparent that fewer and fewer quality pieces are appearing there. Those that do are going for much higher prices.

Concluding, the future looks both inspiring and depressing. For rich investors, trading in a league of their own, it's one of a few possible gateways to economic safety. For the less well off dealers and genuine collectors ~ who in all fairness are often one and the same ~ the outlook is one of much greater scarcity of quality resources, and therefore altogether more tenuous.

Edited October 18, 2011 by 1949threepence

[Red Riley 2]

I have to say that in the main, I have found it difficult in the extreme to spot trends in the market. What I have noticed however is as follows:

Prices at traditional auctions have held up pretty well in my opinion, certainly at the ones I went to - so much so that I suffered the strange experience of travelling 100 miles to an auction and coming home with nothing whatever - in my view everything was overpriced!

I have found that quality is avialable, as is rarity but both at a price. Where I was looking for a combination of both, I came home empty handed which pretty much bears out what Peckris was saying.

Over the summer e-bay prices took a huge hit, have now mostly increased but perhaps not back up to previous levels. As this is my first year of trading, it may just be that this is the way of things caused by buyers being on holiday and slowly re-entering the market. It was matched by a similar downturn in my sales!

Coins which have been unexpectedly popular (to me at any rate) included maundy odds, copper pennies and the hammered series which I am frantically trying to understand... Bronze pennies have been OK but no more than that (mid grade specimens being way behind book) and I can't sell a farthing for love nor money.

And finally, I have found it a little disconcerting how many people are simply led by the nose when it comes to traditional auctions' estimates. Frequently I just cannot see any rime or reason to these and yet bidders just seem to treat them as gospel - rather I suppose as some collectors stick rigidly to their price guides. Incidentally, Croydon Coin Auctions estimates usually equate to the reserve which makes it a hard place to get a bargain.

[petitioncrown 4]

I would like to make clear my statement in the article :-

The middle quality [bRITISH COINAGE] VF+ is advancing at a slightly slower pace as there is a lack of higher quality material to meet present demand.

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE VF+ COLLECTOR IS PARAMOUNT TO OUR HOBBY, AS IS THE ACADEMIC COLLECTOR WHO BRINGS NEW VARIETIES FORWARD IRESESPECTIVE OF GRADE.[/b]

I DID WRITE JUST ‘SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE’ ONLY

Geoffrey Cope

www.petitioncrown.com

British Coin forecast 2012

www.petitioncrown.com

The main auctions for 2011 have just been completed and record prices have been achieved. To laugh or to cry at the market, neither will help to change the present continuing demand. Today we should consider what if there is more financial volatility? What will be the level of interest from the US and other markets? At present it is not easy to evaluate future interest based on the present market. A major question is, in which areas of our series are there coins available for new and existing collectors?

We hear what seems to be “much ado about nothing†with reference to investors, these individuals which I hear but fail to encounter. I did hear that the majority of those that start out investing turn into collectors – well, it is new members we welcome to our fraternity.

Large gold coins remain much sought after. For example the ‘Triple Unite’, 4 quality specimens of which were sold off for an average of £150,000 each during Coinex. These are a favourite of the wealthy although most Triple Unites are not so rare; strong prices highlight the presence of new collectors and investors, with an eye for quality taking an interest in our hobby. Quality Silver pieces in comparison seem inexpensive. Base metals still quietly demand higher and higher prices.

Many times we forget the extreme rarity of Scottish and Irish hammered coins. The prices today being far lower than comparative English coins. Bring rarity into the equation and Scottish & Irish prices need to rise.

The forecast for 2012 is clear, subject to the world monetary system continuing as is:

• High grade material which accounts in general for less than 10% of coins appearing on the market is moving ahead by 10%-20%. There are coins of high grade and rarity that are now bringing double, triple the estimates at auction. The fact is that quality with or without rarity is sought after as ‘objects d’art’.

• The middle quality VF+ is advancing at a slightly slower pace as there is a lack of higher quality material to meet present demand.

• The lower quality is attracting very little attention at present and there is no reason to see change in 2012 except if the specimen is an extreme rarity.

The Brady Collection of groats sold at Spinks in London on October 6th. showed the strength of the market. 400 lots of one denomination were all sold. High grade and rarity was 300% + over estimate. The auction forecast £200’000 and sold for £342’000 with new world record prices: Henry IV Groat £23’500, a Tournai Gros/Groat just under £30’000. A sale with wonderful rarities. It makes us remember what wonderful general collections were Slaney, Marshall, Van Roekel +

The auction was well covered by CNG & Allan Davisson and others from the US and many UK dealers and collectors. CNG are getting the Seaby spirit and bidding strongly for quality material in the UK market.

The English coin market is attracting overseas attention again from the US and the world market, prices for quality and rarity being just a fraction of prices for US coins.

English Tournai Groat/Gros, Lot 290, The Brady Collection, London, Spinks, 6th Oct 2011 - A SILVER GROAT/GROS (4p piece) of King Henry VIII dated 1513 when Tournai in France was under English rule, these coins are detailed in Spinks Standard Catalogue reference 2317*. Hammer Price with commission for under £ 30’000. This rarity slipped through and was underrated by most collectors or dealers, demonstrating there are always opportunities.

Coins had been struck in Tournai over a long period and there were skilled craftsman available to undertake the minting of Henry VIII 1513 coinage. The coin was replaced in 1514 by an English portrait Groat, Standard Catalogue reference 2317.

This coin dated 1513 in Latin Numerals is an Extreme Rarity being the earliest English dated coin it is the only one available to collectors of three specimens known, two being in museums.

The world has changed; the internet has created a transfer of information quite instantaneously. What was a quiet hobby dominated by dealers’ lists and fairs, now, ever increasing numbers of collectors and investors can scour the world for coins, information prices and ‘alternative investment opportunities. This is only the start for the ‘Art Market of British coins’.

A consideration is that individuals will take control of their future investment plans. The lack of confidence in ‘paper money’, and inability of governments to keep fiscal controls will emphasize this trend. Pension funds, insurance, financial institutions struggle to deliver results due to the market volatility. A new driver of the hobby can be the preparation for retirement, today we get 80% of our final salary, and the future will give our children maybe 40%

A question I am continually asked is how should the portfolio be split, bullion, rare coins, cash, property, stocks and all the financial tools available – if only I knew the answer! You can go back to farming, we will always need food.

Elizabeth I, Pattern Groat, 3.89g, struck in silver, 1601, crowned facing bust of Queen.

Loy 360 The Brady Collection

A wonderful piece of portraiture

It is still as important as always is that the adviser, agent or dealer who looks after your needs should have a good reputation and be knowledgeable.

As all hobbies it is good to focus on what you understand, diversification in numismatics can bring dangers through lack of knowledge. Buy the book first.

What is driving the market as we enter 2012?

• Demand for quality material outstripping supply

• Provenances

• The internet

• Continual volatility & risk in the investment, pension, banking market creating a heightened level of fear and instability

The ultimate question is what the state of the market will be 2013/14; this requires the wisdom of age and the enthusiasm of the young. Collecting is a passion, a love of the beauty of these pieces of art and the insights to our history they give. – This gives you no answer but is one of the driving forces of a collector.

Geoffrey Cope www.petitioncrown.com

[Peter 615]

The US market is an intesting one and probably sits at the top of the ownership tree over all the other nations.Trying not to generalise too much a lot of US collectors seem to be after the modern stuff of which the best demands astronomic prices.A few years ago when we had over $2 to the £1 and with Krause's suspect pricing I bought a lot of coins from Aspen coins,GBC coins and of course Ebay.com (Varieties and some nice pieces).Our own market is constantly being topped up by the metal dector

Ebay whether you like it or not is here to stay and althought not fool proof risks can be minimised.Its also on tap 24/7 and a few trips into Ebay (France,Germany etc)have proved rewarding.

I can't say I'm too bothered on where the market has been or is going I'm just happy enough to develope my hobby,buy what I like and try not get too badly burnt on the way.

Try alternative venue's for a scrummage and maybe try digging a few examples of late Anglo Saxon for yourself.

[Colin G. 147]

Try alternative venue's for a scrummage and maybe try digging a few examples of late Anglo Saxon for yourself.

If that is an offer for a day's detecting, count me in!!

[azda 973]

In response to Geoffs last post there regarding the VF+ grade rising slower, i'd suggeat that eventually that will change soon also.

Why?

Well eventually the normal collector will not be able to afford the big prices for the UNCs coins and so i rhink those VF.+ and EFs will eventually become more popular when collectors See that some of those UNCs are just a little out of their reach or what they are willing to pay for a coin.

Or they will perhaps only buy a few coins per year because they have to save longer for something they partikularly want.

[Rob 2,996]

In response to Geoffs last post there regarding the VF+ grade rising slower, i'd suggeat that eventually that will change soon also.

Why?

Well eventually the normal collector will not be able to afford the big prices for the UNCs coins and so i rhink those VF.+ and EFs will eventually become more popular when collectors See that some of those UNCs are just a little out of their reach or what they are willing to pay for a coin.

Or they will perhaps only buy a few coins per year because they have to save longer for something they partikularly want.

I'm not so sure about the collectors of UNC coins running out of money in the near future. Most collectors are people who live within their means and tend to have a bit of spare cash lying around. To buy lower grades in order to continue acquiring at the same rate doesn't fit the collecting mentality. If you want high grade coins you will continue to collect them. A collection is typically made up of a long term set of purchasing decisions. Some coins you will overpay for, others will be cheap, but in the long run things will even themselves out. It might possibly happen when the wants list is reduced to a handful of coins which they haven't a cat in hells chance of affording and the desire to complete is overwhelming, but otherwise I think most collectors will stay focussed.

Edited October 18, 2011 by Rob

[azda 973]

In response to Geoffs last post there regarding the VF+ grade rising slower, i'd suggeat that eventually that will change soon also.

Why?

Well eventually the normal collector will not be able to afford the big prices for the UNCs coins and so i rhink those VF.+ and EFs will eventually become more popular when collectors See that some of those UNCs are just a little out of their reach or what they are willing to pay for a coin.

Or they will perhaps only buy a few coins per year because they have to save longer for something they partikularly want.

I'm not so sure about the collectors of UNC coins running out of money in the near future. Most collectors are people who live within their means and tend to have a bit of spare cash lying around. To buy lower grades in order to continue acquiring at the same rate doesn't fit the collecting mentality. If you want high grade coins you will continue to collect them. A collection is typically made up of a long term set of purchasing decisions. Some coins you will overpay for, others will be cheap, but in the long run things will even themselves out. It might possibly happen when the wants list is reduced to a handful of coins which they haven't a cat in hells chance of affording and the desire to complete is overwhelming, but otherwise I think most collectors will stay focussed.

Sorry, probably mis interpreted what i was saying, i meant, those who would normally try and take a stab at UNC coins might drop down a grade in order to continue their collection, sooner or later UNCs are going to be beyond some of us, depending on what we collect. Auction house prices have been double or even triple book (my assuption is that it's the Americans snapping these up to slab to make quick profit) Orrrrrrrrrr perhaps out dear Spink has been undervaluing our coins for quite some time, and the preverbiale sheeeet might hit the fan sooner or later

[Rob 2,996]

Sorry, probably mis interpreted what i was saying, i meant, those who would normally try and take a stab at UNC coins might drop down a grade in order to continue their collection, sooner or later UNCs are going to be beyond some of us, depending on what we collect. Auction house prices have been double or even triple book (my assuption is that it's the Americans snapping these up to slab to make quick profit) Orrrrrrrrrr perhaps out dear Spink has been undervaluing our coins for quite some time, and the preverbiale sheeeet might hit the fan sooner or later

The buyers in the salerooms have been both UK & US. The demand is quite deep rooted now with a lot of new entrants to the market. A good demonstration of this is given by bidder numbers at the various houses. In the last 5 or 6 years the number or registered clients has at least doubled. It is this base which is responsible for the price hikes. More people have more money (than a decade ago) and given the financial instability, you might as well take a punt and lose it because all governments are guaranteed to *** it up against the wall for you. What they don't have or know about, they can't take.

[azda 973]

Sorry, probably mis interpreted what i was saying, i meant, those who would normally try and take a stab at UNC coins might drop down a grade in order to continue their collection, sooner or later UNCs are going to be beyond some of us, depending on what we collect. Auction house prices have been double or even triple book (my assuption is that it's the Americans snapping these up to slab to make quick profit) Orrrrrrrrrr perhaps out dear Spink has been undervaluing our coins for quite some time, and the preverbiale sheeeet might hit the fan sooner or later

The buyers in the salerooms have been both UK & US. The demand is quite deep rooted now with a lot of new entrants to the market. A good demonstration of this is given by bidder numbers at the various houses. In the last 5 or 6 years the number or registered clients has at least doubled. It is this base which is responsible for the price hikes. More people have more money (than a decade ago) and given the financial instability, you might as well take a punt and lose it because all governments are guaranteed to *** it up against the wall for you. What they don't have or know about, they can't take.

In these uncertain finacial times i cannot see how people have more money. My old workplace in the UK have not had a wage rise in 4 years, they are always letting people go, higher fuel prices etc is always eating away at the middle classes pockets, so i'm stumped as to where the big money is coming from, hence my view that a normal working class hobbiest cannot sustain large price hikes in UNC coins and will inevitably drop a grade to try and keep their collection ticking over. Lets bear in mind that not all collectors come from London or Manchester where there is higher salaries. There is hobbiests all over who must be feeling the squeeze with lower salaries and higher living costs, hence my view that the VF+ and EF grades will eventually rise due to these factors

Edited October 19, 2011 by azda

[Rob 2,996]

Sorry, probably mis interpreted what i was saying, i meant, those who would normally try and take a stab at UNC coins might drop down a grade in order to continue their collection, sooner or later UNCs are going to be beyond some of us, depending on what we collect. Auction house prices have been double or even triple book (my assuption is that it's the Americans snapping these up to slab to make quick profit) Orrrrrrrrrr perhaps out dear Spink has been undervaluing our coins for quite some time, and the preverbiale sheeeet might hit the fan sooner or later

The buyers in the salerooms have been both UK & US. The demand is quite deep rooted now with a lot of new entrants to the market. A good demonstration of this is given by bidder numbers at the various houses. In the last 5 or 6 years the number or registered clients has at least doubled. It is this base which is responsible for the price hikes. More people have more money (than a decade ago) and given the financial instability, you might as well take a punt and lose it because all governments are guaranteed to *** it up against the wall for you. What they don't have or know about, they can't take.

In these uncertain finacial times i cannot see how people have more money. My old workplace in the UK have not had a wage rise in 4 years, they are always letting people go, higher fuel prices etc is always eating away at the middle classes pockets, so i'm stumped as to where the big money is coming from, hence my view that a normal working class hobbiest cannot sustain large price hikes in UNC coins and will inevitably drop a grade to try and keep their collection ticking over. Lets bear in mind that not all collectors come from London or Manchester where there is higher salaries. There is hobbiests all over who must be feeling the squeeze with lower salaries and higher living costs, hence my view that the VF+ and EF grades will eventually rise due to these factors

Wages have stagnated in the last 3 -4 years, but prior to that wages were buoyant due to the apparent success of the economy because the government was spending much more than it took in taxes. Government spending exceeded taxation receipts by hundreds of billions in cash terms between 2000 and 2005. That is a huge influx of money into the system which stimulated the economy and fed through into wage packets via the increased public sector employment and government spending to service these jobs which fed into the private sector wage packets. Some of this was spent on consumables by the people who had to have the latest gadgets or a new car etc. For some people saving is a complete anathema, but half the people of this country pay off their credit cards every month and save the money that is surplus. That money now sitting in savings accounts is being eroded by increased inflation or the danger that the finacial institution could go t**s up and is held by precisely the same people who would typically collect coins. In recessionary times people feel insecure, but in reality only a small percentage of people lose their job which is the real killer for discretionary expenditure. A lot of people who have no money now, didn't have it in the past either. If you have money on deposit, and the rate of return is less than inflation, you are better off spending it. Asset prices must inevitably rise to reflect the amount of money in circulation that is backing those assets i.e the inflation figures have to show an increase to take account of the additional money that has been printed and pumped into the system. Collectors don't buy coins solely from disposable income at the end of the month otherwise there would be virtually no market for coins over a few thousand pounds - it has to come from liquidated savings.

[numismatist 2]

I believe the increase in Coin prices has a lot to do with the scrap price. The same happened in 1980 and was followed by a decline in most cost prices which lasted for some years. My thoughts are like this,on Silver Coins..You have say an worn 1887 Crown worth £3.00 in scrap and it sells for £5.00, then suddenly its scrap value rises to £15.00 and they start to sell for £20.00. This makes an EF one at £20.00 (1980 prices) seem really cheap, so it rises to £50.00 and that in turn makes all other crowns even back to Charles II look very cheap, so a few sales later they have

doubled or more in price. This in turn makes hammered silver seem very cheap and they rise also. Same with Gold coins, a Sovereign fetching say £50.00 (1980 period prices) becomes worth £100.00 scrap.£5.00 pieces that were £300.00 or so become £600.00 and so on. Five Guineas look very

cheap at say £1000.00 and rise to £2000.00, then Hammered Gold seems very cheap and they rise. Then when the 1980 crash in Bullion values came

coins over say six months settled back to earlier values. Now the present situation seems more entrenched as it happened very fast in 1980 and this time the rise has been going on for a few years, so who knows if a really major crash will ever come again ? but all things are possible. There is obviously a flight from cash, and some desirable £5000.00 coins are fetching say £10000.00 in auction , but I see on some dealers lists they have similar things are double to auction prices, and often have "sold" against them . This I think must be investment buyers who trust certain dealers

without question , as these same buyers would I think turn down the same coin at a third of the dealers price from an unknown seller .

[Peter 615]

There is a lot of logic in numismatists post and obviously fuel for the intrinsic coins.There is also a lot more interest in coins due to leisure time and well off silver surfers with their 80% final salary pensions surfing from their paid for 1m homes.I'm a "grey" surfer and can see this in the future.

The no date 20p fiasco sent the public into greed overload and friends and colleagues would bring me palmfulls of predecimal tat to value.I showed them a couple of 18C bits of copper and silver and they could believe how cheap they were.

The plethora of antique type news and TV programmes has meant millions of us now visit antique centres,auctions and dare I say carboots.Recently I did a carboot and hoards decscended on my bulk bagged tat.

Good coins are still cheap,can be inspected in detail over the internet and the buyer can now get TPG.(which is inflating the prices of raw coins)

My wife's impression of a coin collector shuffling along in his courdroy jacket and smelling of wee is no longer true.

[azda 973]

My wife's impression of a coin collector shuffling along in his courdroy jacket and smelling of wee is no longer true.

Thats just Mrs Peters husband

[Peter 615]

My wife's impression of a coin collector shuffling along in his courdroy jacket and smelling of wee is no longer true.

Thats just Mrs Peters husband

Thanks Dave...not since she took me to Saville Row and introduced me to tena for men ...I still shuffle abit though